Wonder and it won't be close.

It's Mario. Though I'll imagine the race after the first two weeks of sales will be close simply because I think Spidey 2 sales might be more front loaded initially but Mario Wonder will leg it all quite easily once come the holiday season I think.

This is only taking into account the initial release platforms of both game.

I wouldn't say zero; PS5 is selling extremely well thus far and this gen could be a long one. There's definitely a chance PS5 outsells Switch.

It can happen but the odds are close to 0, but only if Series SX start imploding. One more year (even two for thst matter) in the market is not enough to push PS5 to become the best system of all time (needed to surpass Switch)

I see no reason for SX implode. The software in the tail of its life is likely to be better than the current due to their acquisitios finally being able to produce some games, it should keep the same level of XBone

Obviously not impossible but highly unlikely and would need to break into some type of untapped market.

PS2+XB-183 million

PS3+360-173 million

PS4+XBO-175 million

While this isn’t an exact science, we have a pretty good idea of how much PS+XB will sell in a generation and how well one does is dependent on how well the other does.

Assuming that PS5+XBS sells somewhere in this range than XBS would need to be discontinued immediately for PS5 to stand a chance, otherwise it will take a fundamental change in the PS market.

Wonder. I hope no one even thought otherwise?. Its the first big proper 2d Mario game in years that didnt include "New" in the title. It is a proper sequel to all the other 2d Mario mainline games and not just another side game. Its going to be HUGE!!.

Wonder's launch quarter sales will almost certainly outsell Spiderman 2's lifetime sales on PS5.

Spiderman 2 should certainly sell over 10 million on PS5 and might do that just during the holiday quarter, but I would no way it hits 20m lifetime. Wonder might be at 20m by end of the year or at least close to it, and could hit 30m lifetime.

A lot of people are underestimating Spider-Man 2. The first sold 20 million in just a couple years so it's surely over 25m by now excluding the PC version so as long as it's received well the sequel doing better than the first and getting into the 30's on PS5 alone wouldn't really be surprising. Mario Wonder will for sure get to the 30's and potentially the 40's lifetime but that happening with the Switch 1 version alone depends entirely on if there's a Switch 2 version and if there is when that happens so this is pretty up in the air.

PS5 as a system has only sold 40m. So extremely unlikely a game coming out soon is going to sell 30m on it. This isn't GTA or something we're talking about, that would keep selling for the lifetime of the system. Also isn't this the third spiderman game on the system in just 3 years? Probably gonna be some people who have already played two spiderman games in as man years on the system and won't bother with yet another one. I'd say 20m lifetime is a stretch, while Wonder has a good chance of beating that just this holiday season. The last two Spiderman games were on PS4, PS5, and PC. If we're just comparing PS5 to Switch game sales here you don't get to include other systems or PC that Spiderman 2 may come out on in the future. No way a Spiderman game coming out on a 40+ million system is going to beat 2D Mario coming out on a 130 million system.

Ehh, okay dude.