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the-pi-guy said:
Shtinamin_ said:

How come the AP (and everyone else) has declared the New Hampshire primary race over (even though they only have 25% reporting)? It’s not over til it’s over.

A few things:

A call basically starts as a projection. It's not an official result. It's basically an outlet making an educated judgment call. It's possible for a call to be wrong.

CNN called Florida for Gore in 2000:

Obviously this didn't end up being the correct call. 

They make these judgment calls based off things like polling and previous election results. For example, California pretty consistently votes for Democrats at the federal level. They might expect from polling that California will vote 63% for the Democratic Nominee in 2024 and 34% for the Republican Nominee for President, and it helps that is what the last election looked like there. An outlet might call the election extremely early in California, because they might be seeing the early vote go the way they expected, or maybe even more slanted towards Democratic than they expected. Some of those states, I think even frequently get called when there are still 0 votes, just because it would require an unprecedented Christmas miracle for things to go the other way. 

In this case, they might have had something like "in these counties we expect Haley to win by 2%, and in these counties we expect Trump to win by 4%." And these will have a margin of error of about 3%. If we start the real count on those Haley counties, and Trump is actually winning by 1% (that is within the margin of error to still be accurate polling); then it's pretty safe to conclude that Trump will win the whole state. If he didn't, that would require the Trump counties to actually go to Haley, and that would require the +4% Trump to be a very large unexpected error.

Every vote will be counted to be sure, and as I said the call isn't an official result. 

Thank you. That was very informative. 
While I watched the results come in the percentage for Trump and Haley didn’t really move at all. 
Why are polling results focusing on the “loser’s” counties first? If we are.

but yes, thank you for replying. :)



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Bofferbrauer2 said:

With 91% of the votes counted in New Hampshire, Trump is going to win 54 to 43%. However, considering that poll aggregators had 56 to 36% on average (and even over 60% for Trump in the last 2 polls without DeSantis), it looks like Haley got the majority of the undecided voters and did quite a bit better than expected while Trump underperformed somewhat.

If Haley could make that a trend (and capitalize on the increasing signs of dementia of Trump), id' say she still has a shot, even though the odds are still long.

Yeah, I just do no believe Haley has what it takes to actually really go after Trump.  Like I said before, she tried to softball him confusing her with Polesi which in my book shows a real big decline in Trump ability since it basically impossible to get the 2 people confused unless your mental state is not solid.

She absolutely should take the kid gloves off if she really want the GOP nomination and go hard.  She is never going to get Trump base but she may be able to get the rest of the moderates and undecided.  She has to make a case about Trump and Biden age and compare herself to these old falling apart politicians.  Actually, with Desantis out, Haley has a great opportunity to compare herself against both Trump and Biden but she has to either go hard or just drop.



I'm really not trying to be "The Boy Who Cried Wolf" but this US Presidential Election continues to look more and more likely to be the most tense since 1860. January 6th will likely be less bad than whatever could happen in this election.
Donald Trump is all but guaranteed to get the Republican primary, and he will claim he won the primary and general election no matter what. A constitutional crisis will emerge if Donald Trump gets more indictments and especially convictions if he's president-elect or president again. And if he wins the primary and gets brought down before the general, I suppose the RNC would pick whoever he chooses as his running mate for the general election, and they'll have to find another VP running mate.
I don't foresee a Second American Civil War in the near future, as involuntary slavery is not on the line and the population is more sedentary.
The extent will differ, but there will be both peaceful and violent protests no matter which candidate is elected president.
Donald Trump and Joe Biden retiring probably would've been one of the best-case scenarios for both of the major parties.
The US House elections will be interesting to see as well. Republicans are only leading by 6 seats. That's a good amount in the Senate, not as much in the House. I think the two most likely events are the Republicans gaining another 5-10 seats or the Democrats gaining about 7-15. I don't think it will be a Red or Blue Wave in the House.



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Switch: 161 million (was 73 million, then 96 million, then 113 million, then 125 million, then 144 million, then 151 million, then 156 million)

PS5: 115 million (was 105 million) Xbox Series S/X: 48 million (was 60 million, then 67 million, then 57 million)

PS4: 120 mil (was 100 then 130 million, then 122 million) Xbox One: 51 mil (was 50 then 55 mil)

3DS: 75.5 mil (was 73, then 77 million)

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This sounds like one of the most accurate predictions I have heard about 2024! 

Wman1996 said:

I'm really not trying to be "The Boy Who Cried Wolf" but this US Presidential Election continues to look more and more likely to be the most tense since 1860. January 6th will likely be less bad than whatever could happen in this election.
Donald Trump is all but guaranteed to get the Republican primary, and he will claim he won the primary and general election no matter what. A constitutional crisis will emerge if Donald Trump gets more indictments and especially convictions if he's president-elect or president again. And if he wins the primary and gets brought down before the general, I suppose the RNC would pick whoever he chooses as his running mate for the general election, and they'll have to find another VP running mate.
I don't foresee a Second American Civil War in the near future, as involuntary slavery is not on the line and the population is more sedentary.
The extent will differ, but there will be both peaceful and violent protests no matter which candidate is elected president.
Donald Trump and Joe Biden retiring probably would've been one of the best-case scenarios for both of the major parties.
The US House elections will be interesting to see as well. Republicans are only leading by 6 seats. That's a good amount in the Senate, not as much in the House. I think the two most likely events are the Republicans gaining another 5-10 seats or the Democrats gaining about 7-15. I don't think it will be a Red or Blue Wave in the House.



BiON!@ 



I describe myself as a little dose of toxic masculinity.

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Jumpin said:

The Republicans are living self-parodies to the point where the Onion just can't keep up. Unfortunately, they're self-parodies with political power and government guns in the South and Midwest. 



I can't at this, how do you even



LurkerJ said:

I can't at this, how do you even

It would be funny if it wasn't true. This is what erosion of public education leads to. Critical thinking is the most important thing to teach in schools and I wonder if it is being taught at all in the USA.

The Bible teaches tolerance just like Islam, but that's not the teachings these people are looking for :/ Fire and brimstone for anyone 'different' from me. Of course these old books are full of outdated metaphors and I doubt those interviewed there even know what a metaphor is... Just like the constitution is outdated and needs modern re-interpretation.

Societies change all the time, and one awful human trait is fear of change. Politics grab on to any change to pick at that fear to control the people. That's all maga stands for, fear of change, fear of growing up as a nation.



SvennoJ said:
LurkerJ said:

I can't at this, how do you even

It would be funny if it wasn't true. This is what erosion of public education leads to. Critical thinking is the most important thing to teach in schools and I wonder if it is being taught at all in the USA.

The Bible teaches tolerance just like Islam, but that's not the teachings these people are looking for :/ Fire and brimstone for anyone 'different' from me. Of course these old books are full of outdated metaphors and I doubt those interviewed there even know what a metaphor is... Just like the constitution is outdated and needs modern re-interpretation.

Societies change all the time, and one awful human trait is fear of change. Politics grab on to any change to pick at that fear to control the people. That's all maga stands for, fear of change, fear of growing up as a nation.

I always wonder when I hear that the Bible doesn't teach tolerance. I mean, what's the story of the Good Samaritan then if not a show of tolerance? Or all the other times that Jesus showed compassion?

Also, if Jesus would be living these days, they'd probably hate his guts. For instance, how would they interpret the wonder of the multiplication of the bread and fish that fed 5000 people? Having the ability to make food out of thin air and then just giving that away to the poor? "Radical communist right here!" or something along those lines would probably be their main reaction.



SvennoJ said:

Critical thinking is the most important thing to teach in schools and I wonder if it is being taught at all in the USA.

I grew up in a relatively good school system and even for me Critical Thinking was a college level course. It along with Media and Financial Literacy should be mandatory K-12 curriculum.