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RolStoppable said:
firebush03 said:

…so, we’re switching topics? Okay lol. To address this point, my claim that Harris is in a tricky position with Michigan shouldn’t be interpreted as I deny the polls: Yes, Harris is leading in all midwestern states. What you have to keep in mind here is that dismissing the polls altogether is far different than considering potential for MoE. I believe these polls are 95% reliable…not 100%. If 2016/2020 are any indicators, there is legitimate reason to be skeptical of a Harris victory solely according to the polls (especially in a state such as Michigan where the error between poll and actual was around 4pts in favor of Rep both in 2016/2020).

I hope this response will be helpful in you providing a response to my prior msg btw. No point in switching between topics unless concessions are made and agreement (to an extent) is reached.

This was always about Michigan, because it's the only state where we have seen voters make a statement in the primaries. Everywhere else the suffering of Gaza is not going to change voters' opinions on who they'll vote to a degree that could potentially matter.

I answered your question about what my evidence is, so what else do you want? I even mentioned the margin of error myself.

The evidence for Biden reaching a ceasefire agreement in Israel is the behavior of Netanyahu who wants war, not peace; he has kept turning down ceasefire proposals several times and is now in the process of expanding his war. Biden would have to make such big moves that the Democrats' pro-Israel voters would be at risk, and make no mistake, the pro-Israel group is much bigger than the pro-Gaza group in the USA. Any big change in Biden's policies right now would be used against Harris's candidacy.

"I answered your question about what my evidence is, so what else do you want?"

I'm seeing it now: "Ryuu's post with the most recent swing state polls is the evidence. Harris leads in Michigan in all polls; within the margin of error, but it's a lead nonetheless. You made the claim that Michigan is lost for the Democrats and you have yet to provide any evidence; a nationwide poll doesn't qualify as evidence." Misunderstanding on my part: It read as though you were trying to say that actually *I'm* the one who denies polls b/c if you look at them, Harris is winning...yet I said it was "joever" (though it should be noted this response I added afterwards).

We're on the same page again...and I think my response here may explain why I even got confused in the first place: Why would we be looking at election polling data to determine the popularity of enforcing a ceasefire in the Middle East, as opposed to the polls which literally ask a series of point-blank questions solely focused on it? If you're skeptical of the poll I linked, you can (a.) pull up other polls from non-partisan organizations, or (b.) examine the techniques they utilized as a means to reduce extraneous variables and thereby avoid incorrect solutions. I know you specifically mentioned wording-of-the-question bias, but it should be noted the explicit questions which were asked are what I explicitly quoted: "is providing too much aid to Israel", and "support putting restrictions on US military aid to Israel". The poll asks many questions, so if you are looking for different answers, here's a link to the poll again.

Additionally, the results of the poll I'm fixated on are specifically from the non-Republican participants. Those people are not coming to Harris in any situation: It only makes sense to focus on legitimate people who may vote for or against in Harris in response to a ceasefire agreement, not hardliners who are adament in their opposition of Harris.



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LurkerJ said:

Remember, we're talking about Biden here, the guy who got dragged out of the race kicking and screaming swearing he's the only who could beat Trump, to pretend he's some political genius and his approach to Israel is calculated, responsible or makes sense electorally is indefensible.

It's okay LurkerJ, we'll get you your meds. 



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Runa216 said:
LurkerJ said:

Remember, we're talking about Biden here, the guy who got dragged out of the race kicking and screaming swearing he's the only who could beat Trump, to pretend he's some political genius and his approach to Israel is calculated, responsible or makes sense electorally is indefensible.

It's okay LurkerJ, we'll get you your meds. 

Runa216 you have to be off your meds not to believe this lol.



SanAndreasX said:

One thing that nobody seems to be talking about is the port strike in the Eastern US. The West Coast ports are still open as they’re under a different union. People are already panic buying toilet paper and bottled water, and Los Angeles and Long Beach can’t handle all the overflow from the East, not to mention trucks and rail. Hopefully this won’t be another supply chain snarl that raises prices.

Harold Daggett, the president of the Easten port worker’s union, the Internatinal Longshoremen’s Associaton (ILA), is a friend of Trump. However, a lot of the timing is bad luck, as the most recent ILA contract expired just a few days ago.

The strike puts Biden, and by entension Harris, in a precarious situation. So far, Biden has signaled support for the union and prefers to let collective bargaining run its course. If the strike goes on long enough to impact consumer prices, Trump’s campaign will jump on it to hammer Biden. On the other hand, if Biden takes the nuclear option and invokes the Taft-Hartley Act to try and force the dock workers back to work - which is what Reagan did to resolve the PATCO strike, ultimately resulting in the striking ATCs being fired - he’ll lose critical union support. 

CHARLESTON, S.C. (WCIV) — Local International Longshormen's Association workers said the port strike is over, Kenneth Riley with Local 1422 said to News 4.

Riley, the international vice president of the ILA and ILA Local 1422 member, claimed the dockworkers got the automation language and significant pay raises included in the contract.

The full contract details weren't immediately made available to News 4.

Sources: Striking port workers to return to work Friday as negotiators reach an agreement on wages | CNN Business

That was a quick strike



firebush03 said:
RolStoppable said:

I am refering to you when I talk about the messenger.

I did read your response to sundin, and I also read his response. I agree with him that such polls have little to no value.

Since Netanyahu absolutely wants to have a war, pressuring Israel into a ceasefire agreement would take nothing short of providing no aid to Israel anymore AND threatening them with sanctions. This wouldn't bode well for the American election.

“I agree with him that such polls have little to no value.” What’s your evidence that Biden reaching a ceasefire agreement would cause more harm than good? Beyond just gut feeling.

”pressuring Israel into a ceasefire agreement would take nothing short of providing no aid to Israel anymore AND threatening them with sanctions. This wouldn't bode well for the American election.” What’s your evidence this wouldn’t bode well for the American election? Again, beyond just disputing the entirety of polling and relying solely on what your gut tells you?

@the-pi-guy You reading this, right? You have told me in the past “What would it take to convince you? If all evidence we provide isn’t sufficient, I don’t believe anything will be sufficient.” How would you respond to RolStoppable and Sundino13 in this instance? They are literally stating that you cannot trust polling b/c polling error exists lol.

First of all, if you have something to say to me, I'm right here... 

Second, I said nothing about polling error. I said something about issue framing. I said something about the limits of US' power over Israel. I also said something about the impact of counter pressure. I also said something about the impact of consequences of your proposed actions. 



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America is broken. Hundreds of billions spent on foreign wars but ya can't clean up you own house. I get more saddened for the US every passing year.



sundin13 said:
firebush03 said:

“I agree with him that such polls have little to no value.” What’s your evidence that Biden reaching a ceasefire agreement would cause more harm than good? Beyond just gut feeling.

”pressuring Israel into a ceasefire agreement would take nothing short of providing no aid to Israel anymore AND threatening them with sanctions. This wouldn't bode well for the American election.” What’s your evidence this wouldn’t bode well for the American election? Again, beyond just disputing the entirety of polling and relying solely on what your gut tells you?

@the-pi-guy You reading this, right? You have told me in the past “What would it take to convince you? If all evidence we provide isn’t sufficient, I don’t believe anything will be sufficient.” How would you respond to RolStoppable and Sundino13 in this instance? They are literally stating that you cannot trust polling b/c polling error exists lol.

First of all, if you have something to say to me, I'm right here... 

i'm not responding to every comment. If a comment doesn't need a response, or if it's content is so absurd that I don't take it seriously enough to provide a response, then you don't get a response. Your comment fell in the latter category for the reason which should be obvious from my response to RolStoppable: You argued that polls cannot be trust b/c wording-of-the-question bias. No poll sets itself as a picture-perfect representation of society, though it should give us an idea as to what people are thinking. (p.s. war in the middle east = inflated gas prices. This is the last thing Biden/Harris need in October. Ceasefire would avoid all of this...)



LegitHyperbole said:

America is broken. Hundreds of billions spent on foreign wars but ya can't clean up you own house. I get more saddened for the US every passing year.

The yearly budget of FEMA is approximately $30b. $640m being spent on migrants didn't bankrupt FEMA. Disasters are just expensive. This is just more "blame immigrants for everything" propaganda. 

This is also something that happens with some regularity, because when major disasters hit, they are expensive. Here are some stories about FEMA running out of funds in previous years:

2023: FEMA forced to restrict disaster spending because of low funds - POLITICO

2017: FEMA could run out of cash this weekend | CNN Politics

2011: FEMA funding running short after Irene (youtube.com)

If Congress wants to give FEMA more money, all they need to do is give FEMA more money. It isn't complex, it's just politics. 



firebush03 said:
sundin13 said:

First of all, if you have something to say to me, I'm right here... 

i'm not responding to every comment. If a comment doesn't need a response, or if it's content is so absurd that I don't take it seriously enough to provide a response, then you don't get a response. Your comment fell in the latter category for the reason which should be obvious from my response to RolStoppable: You argued that polls cannot be trust b/c wording-of-the-question bias. No poll sets itself as a picture-perfect representation of society, though it should give us an idea as to what people are thinking. (p.s. war in the middle east = inflated gas prices. This is the last thing Biden/Harris need in October. Ceasefire would avoid all of this...)

Strike Two:

That still isn't what I said. 

I find it quite amusing that you call my comment absurd yet you can't seem to grasp what it actually said. 



LegitHyperbole said:

America is broken. Hundreds of billions spent on foreign wars but ya can't clean up you own house. I get more saddened for the US every passing year.

Republicans have refused to do anything with the budget for the past two years while in charge of the House.  We probably shouldn't be building houses right on the sand that are going to be destroyed again one day, but we still will.  Project 2025, which is Trumps big agenda plans to gut FEMA making it worthless.