RolStoppable said:
This was always about Michigan, because it's the only state where we have seen voters make a statement in the primaries. Everywhere else the suffering of Gaza is not going to change voters' opinions on who they'll vote to a degree that could potentially matter. I answered your question about what my evidence is, so what else do you want? I even mentioned the margin of error myself. The evidence for Biden reaching a ceasefire agreement in Israel is the behavior of Netanyahu who wants war, not peace; he has kept turning down ceasefire proposals several times and is now in the process of expanding his war. Biden would have to make such big moves that the Democrats' pro-Israel voters would be at risk, and make no mistake, the pro-Israel group is much bigger than the pro-Gaza group in the USA. Any big change in Biden's policies right now would be used against Harris's candidacy. |
"I answered your question about what my evidence is, so what else do you want?"
I'm seeing it now: "Ryuu's post with the most recent swing state polls is the evidence. Harris leads in Michigan in all polls; within the margin of error, but it's a lead nonetheless. You made the claim that Michigan is lost for the Democrats and you have yet to provide any evidence; a nationwide poll doesn't qualify as evidence." Misunderstanding on my part: It read as though you were trying to say that actually *I'm* the one who denies polls b/c if you look at them, Harris is winning...yet I said it was "joever" (though it should be noted this response I added afterwards).
We're on the same page again...and I think my response here may explain why I even got confused in the first place: Why would we be looking at election polling data to determine the popularity of enforcing a ceasefire in the Middle East, as opposed to the polls which literally ask a series of point-blank questions solely focused on it? If you're skeptical of the poll I linked, you can (a.) pull up other polls from non-partisan organizations, or (b.) examine the techniques they utilized as a means to reduce extraneous variables and thereby avoid incorrect solutions. I know you specifically mentioned wording-of-the-question bias, but it should be noted the explicit questions which were asked are what I explicitly quoted: "is providing too much aid to Israel", and "support putting restrictions on US military aid to Israel". The poll asks many questions, so if you are looking for different answers, here's a link to the poll again.
Additionally, the results of the poll I'm fixated on are specifically from the non-Republican participants. Those people are not coming to Harris in any situation: It only makes sense to focus on legitimate people who may vote for or against in Harris in response to a ceasefire agreement, not hardliners who are adament in their opposition of Harris.