PS5. Probably by a wide margin (5 million+).
Not questioning your choice, which is reasonable. But, based on the very specific and very wide margin you decided to add to it, what are your predictions for PS5 and Switch sales for the year? For a gap of over 5 million between the two, it looks like you're expecting 19-20 million for PS5 (better than any PS4 year), and/or a total crash of Switch sales despite Nintendo still having big software releases coming, no successor hinted at (not so much as a codename) and Nintendo announcing an increase in Switch production this year.
I predict a minimum of 20-22 million PS5's sold this year. I think PS5 will be a much more popular platform than PS4 ever was:
1. PS4 shipped 2.3 million units for the quarter. Sony forecasts around 6.2 million PS5's for the same quarter. Note that there is also a 1.6 million gap between PS5's shipped and sold through by the start of 2023. Even if Sony fails to meet their target by over a million, PS5's YTD would still already be ahead by a significant margin.
2. Pent up demand.
3. The Last of Us and Gran Turismo getting sales bumps from the TV series, PSVR2, and improved stock.
4. The Last of Us Factions 2 potentially coming this year.
5. PS5 revision reportedly coming in September, with 18.5 million units planned by the end of the fiscal year (plus 12 million older PS5's produced from March onward).
6. I expect Sony to push the cheaper SKU (be it Digital Edition or "Discless") not long after production exceeds demand. They could also opt to reduce bundles, bringing the entry price down.
7. A possible pricecut (revert to the original pricing outside the US).
8. Spider-Man 2 launch. And strong legs from their existing lineup. Sony's first party support in the first half of PS4's life was quite weak. Their PS5 lineup is on another level. They're a lot bigger now.
9. A huge marketing campaign to maximize sales.
10. PS5 may ship 18-19 million consoles for FY 2022 despite the poor first half. It's pretty much impossible for the calendar year sell through to not beat that figure.
Though it goes without saying there is a number of concerns and unforeseen circumstances that may outweigh these points. But I think the demand and hype remain absolutely huge, so if Sony can ship even 25 million, they will likely sell all of them in most regions.
Last edited by Kyuu - on 07 February 2023