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Forums - Sales Discussion - Sell-through expectations for the Xbox Series X|S in 2023?

 

Sell-through expectations for the Xbox Series X|S in 2023?

Less than 7 million 64 11.92%
 
7.0 - 7.9 million 16 2.98%
 
8.0 - 8.9 million 22 4.10%
 
9.0 - 9.9 million 50 9.31%
 
10.0 - 10.9 million 137 25.51%
 
11.0 - 11.9 million 68 12.66%
 
12.0 - 12.9 million 71 13.22%
 
13.0 - 13.9 million 29 5.40%
 
14.0 - 15.0 million 39 7.26%
 
More than 15 million 41 7.64%
 
Total:537

Definitely less than 7m. It will do well to sell half that amount.



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Considering this year will have a vastly superior software output for it after it being abysmal last year it should be up though I expect the first half of 2023 to be not good since momentum is clearly bad for it currently and Starfield is still at least a few months away. I'll go with a bit over 10m and it'll probably be the peak year so the only one above 10m.



SKMBlake said:
smroadkill15 said:

At the very least, Xbox will break 10 million.

Yeah people said that last year.

I believe it will too, but don't jink it :D

tbf, most thought Starfield, Redfall, and Forza Motorsport were going to release last year so that certainly plays into it. 



Went with the 13.0-13.9 range. Reduced shortage issues leading to more of the desirable Series X to go around should boost numbers. Oh, and let's not forget the games. Finally going to get some of those. I think the peak year/s will be 2024 or 2025.



...to avoid getting banned for inactivity, I may have to resort to comments that are of a lower overall quality and or beneath my moral standards.

Forza and Redfall don't seem to me like the kind of games that will push huge numbers of people to run out and buy a new console.
Starfield does potentially, but only if it is very well received. Just being good won't cut it, it needs to be great.

With the new numbers things are looking less positive for Xbox than when I first posted. I will let my prediction stand for now, but like sales it may get a downward adjustment.



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023. (And over 130 million lifetime)

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Are we expecting Starfield to be bundled with the Xbox. And do we expect it to be a system seller. I think the Series S being bundled? Actually I'm wrong, Starfield may be on the box but I think the S will ship with a $1 first month Game Sub.



CosmicSex said:

Are we expecting Starfield to be bundled with the Xbox. And do we expect it to be a system seller. I think the Series S being bundled? Actually I'm wrong, Starfield may be on the box but I think the S will ship with a $1 first month Game Sub.

It definitely has the potential to be a system seller, but I think a lot will hinge on how it is received. If it's seen as disappointing or merely okay/good, that won't inspire many people to drop hundreds of dollars on a new system.

On the other hand, if it's regarded as great, I can see it pushing hardware.



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023. (And over 130 million lifetime)

Machina said:
curl-6 said:

Hard to say.
On the one hand, chip supply improving and the arrival of some big exclusives finally might give it a boost.
On the other, the PS5 being more available could well reduce Xbox's sales as people opt for Sony instead, and if the reception for games like Starfield and Redfall is lukewarm or poor that will diminish their ability to move hardware.

I'm gonna lean toward optimism and say around 10 million.

These are my thoughts pretty much. I don't think Redfall is pushing any sales at all though, but Starfield could - providing it's received more like say Fallout 4 than Fallout 76.

Not growing YoY at this stage would bode poorly - that was Xbox One's trajectory (peaked in its second full year) - especially when the first few years were hobbled by shortages. There is a risk of that happening, but I am still expecting growth. My vote is 10-11 million (more 10 than 11!).

I'm not sure Redfall could ever be a 'system seller', but I do think it's the potential sleeper hit of the year; if that's the case, and because it's a game that promotes a lot of co-op and social interaction, the positive word-of-mouth would spread fast. That would at least be a great start for Xbox reversing the momentum of their current image-- that there's literally nothing worth playing outside smaller passion projects and whatever Gamepass tosses out for the peasants.



The_Liquid_Laser said:

Definitely less than 7m. It will do well to sell half that amount.

When I thought you 12 million prediction for PS5 was bad, you come here with a 3.5 million for Xbox. Like... how even?

Never in the History a console dropped by over 65% in its third year 

It's just absurd. Not going to happen. It needs to drop to a sub 60k average weekly sales during the whole year, followed by a 1 million copies in Christmas season. You cannot be serious



Xbox didn't really have good exclusives last year, which hampered it's sales somewhat. As such, I expect a bit higher sales this year, around 10M-12M