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Forums - Sales Discussion - Sell-through expectations for the Xbox Series X|S in 2023?

 

Sell-through expectations for the Xbox Series X|S in 2023?

Less than 7 million 66 12.09%
 
7.0 - 7.9 million 18 3.30%
 
8.0 - 8.9 million 22 4.03%
 
9.0 - 9.9 million 51 9.34%
 
10.0 - 10.9 million 139 25.46%
 
11.0 - 11.9 million 69 12.64%
 
12.0 - 12.9 million 72 13.19%
 
13.0 - 13.9 million 29 5.31%
 
14.0 - 15.0 million 39 7.14%
 
More than 15 million 41 7.51%
 
Total:546
DroidKnight on 19 January 2024

I was really close with my 13. to 13.9. lol



...to avoid getting banned for inactivity, I may have to resort to comments that are of a lower overall quality and or beneath my moral standards.

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JRPGfan on 19 January 2024
shikamaru317 said:

Considering Xbox Series sold around 9.5m in 2022, with no big exclusives and still limited stock, while 2023 will have better stock and at least 3 AAA exclusives (Forza Motorsport, Redfall, and Starfield), I'm going to go with 12-12.9m. Starfield alone should be able to move at least a couple million more Xbox consoles than were sold last year, the 2 most recent Bethesda games both sold over 10m copies on PS platforms (Skyrim sold like 7m on PS3 plus probably 5m+ on PS4, while VGChartz is tracking about 8m physical PS4 copies for Fallout 4 as of about 4 years ago, between digital and later life physical I would guess Fallout 4 sold at least 13m on PS4), but now the latest Bethesda game won't be on PS5 at all, stands to reason that a couple million Playstation gamers will buy an Xbox Series at some point this year just to play Starfield (especially if it reviews well) while other PS gamers will either play it on PC, play it on xCloud, or skip it. The cheaper S model is perfect for PS gamers looking for a secondary or tertiary console, and if the S has a repeat of the $250 Holiday deal from last year this Holiday, or possibly even less than $250 or an S bundle with Starfield at $250 for the Holiday, it will be and even better deal for PS gamers.

This one hurts to read.

Forza Motorsports has been a sales flop, the series is in the worst shape its ever been.
Redfall.... that was a dumpster fire.
Starfield... was just very mid... its playable, but it didn't turn out well enough to push hardware. Its retention rate dropped really fast, its now played less than skyrim currently is. Mod community seem to have turned their backs on it as well.

There wasnt stock issues with series s/x this time around, and infact it had price advantages (150$ series s, and 349$ for series x) this holiday.
It didn't result in a mass drove of PS/PC users, buying one (for bethesda games).

I wouldn't even say shikamaru317, was being overly optimistic with his predictions. Comeing off 2022, what he wrote makes sense.
Its just,.... things didn't turn out that well. The games failed,.... to aid the hardware sales here.



Zippy6 on 19 January 2024
JRPGfan said:

I wouldn't even say shikamaru317, was being overly optimistic with his predictions. Comeing off 2022, what he wrote makes sense.
Its just,.... things didn't turn out that well. The games failed,.... to aid the hardware sales here.

At the start of last year basically everyone expected sales to be higher than 2022. Considering they didn't release any games in 2022 and they had stock issues with the X... It just didn't make sense back then to think what happened in 2023 was a reasonable possibility. This last year has really been a shock.



Console Launch Aligned Sales Charts

Famitsu Sales Database

VGChartz Monthly Sales Database

BonfiresDown on 19 January 2024

While Starfield disappointed, the other thing that threw me off was that a substantial amount of console buyers seem to have bought an Xbox in 2022 and earlier simply because they couldn’t find a PS5. I definitely did not expect that. Of course, finding a PS5 in 2023 wasn’t a problem and Xbox sales suffered accordingly.



DroidKnight on 19 January 2024
JRPGfan said:


Mod community seem to have turned their backs on it as well.


Has the official mod support even started yet?



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JRPGfan on 19 January 2024

2024-2025 should be better, atleast from a games perspective.

Perfect Dark, Indiana Jones, Avowed, Senua's Sage - Hellblade II.
I suspect these will be quality, and titles people want to play (in numbers).



Norion on 19 January 2024

Xbox Series sales really were inflated a fair amount in 2022 due to lack of PS5 stock. Even if Redfall, Forza and Starfield were all very well received I wouldn't be surprised if it just matched 2022 or only did slightly better.