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Forums - Sales Discussion - Sell-through expectations for the Xbox Series X|S in 2023?

 

Sell-through expectations for the Xbox Series X|S in 2023?

Less than 7 million 66 12.09%
 
7.0 - 7.9 million 18 3.30%
 
8.0 - 8.9 million 22 4.03%
 
9.0 - 9.9 million 51 9.34%
 
10.0 - 10.9 million 139 25.46%
 
11.0 - 11.9 million 69 12.64%
 
12.0 - 12.9 million 72 13.19%
 
13.0 - 13.9 million 29 5.31%
 
14.0 - 15.0 million 39 7.14%
 
More than 15 million 41 7.51%
 
Total:546
AJNShelton on 24 January 2023
smroadkill15 said:

At the very least, Xbox will break 10 million.

Yeah people said that last year.

I believe it will too, but don't jink it :D



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shikamaru317 on 24 January 2023
SKMBlake said:
Oneeee-Chan!!! said:

As PS5 supply improves, XBS sales seem to be dropping.
Series s are now available for $240, yet sales are not good.
It doesn't seem to be a win-win situation.

I expect it to be 8-10million.
Never mind the ↓ predictions.

Already this low ?

They are clearing out remaining stock of the $250 Series S Holiday SKU by dropping it a further $10. All 8 of the Walmart's closest to me already sold out of all of the $240 Holiday SKU and only have the $300 Golden Hunter SKU available now. 



Qwark on 24 January 2023

Depends on how aggressively Microsoft wants to sell Xbox I guess. But over 12 million should be doable. They need to push the X though since the initial hype for the S seems kind a over.



Please excuse my (probally) poor grammar

jvmkdg on 24 January 2023

where are the sales until the 31st i thought it was scheduled for today



curl-6 on 24 January 2023

It feels like Xbox is losing momentum in the last few months compared to early in 2022 when it was up by a lot YOY.
As this generation moves passed the scarcity and FOMO phase, they're going to need to lift their game if they want to stay competitive.



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trunkswd on 24 January 2023
curl-6 said:

It feels like Xbox is losing momentum in the last few months compared to early in 2022 when it was up by a lot YOY.
As this generation moves passed the scarcity and FOMO phase, they're going to need to lift their game if they want to stay competitive.

Sales being down in the holiday quarter compared to last year was not a big surprise. Though hardware being down is not good. 



VGChartz Sales Analyst and Writer - William D'Angelo - I stream on Twitch and have my own YouTube. Follow me on Twitter @TrunksWD.

Writer of the Sales Comparison | Weekly Hardware Breakdown | Top 10 | Weekly Sales Analysis | Marketshare Features, as well as daily news on the Video Game Industry.

curl-6 on 24 January 2023
trunkswd said:
curl-6 said:

It feels like Xbox is losing momentum in the last few months compared to early in 2022 when it was up by a lot YOY.
As this generation moves passed the scarcity and FOMO phase, they're going to need to lift their game if they want to stay competitive.

Sales being down in the holiday quarter compared to last year was not a big surprise. Though hardware being down is not good. 

Yeah if you don't release games your console is unlikely to show growth.



trunkswd on 24 January 2023

Adjustments done for now. Xbox Series X|S sales for the September to December quarter are now down very slightly year-on-year compared to being up. It really was a very rough quarter. 

Xbox Series X|S sales with the last week of 2022 added:

  • Lifetime ~20.36M
  • 2022: ~9.29M

Last week of 2022 should be roughly flat YoY with sales at about ~211K for the Xbox Series X|S.



VGChartz Sales Analyst and Writer - William D'Angelo - I stream on Twitch and have my own YouTube. Follow me on Twitter @TrunksWD.

Writer of the Sales Comparison | Weekly Hardware Breakdown | Top 10 | Weekly Sales Analysis | Marketshare Features, as well as daily news on the Video Game Industry.

Oneeee-Chan!!! on 24 January 2023
SKMBlake said:
Oneeee-Chan!!! said:

As PS5 supply improves, XBS sales seem to be dropping.
Series s are now available for $240, yet sales are not good.
It doesn't seem to be a win-win situation.

I expect it to be 8-10million.
Never mind the ↓ predictions.

Already this low ?

You can still buy it.

https://www.walmart.com/ip/Xbox-Series-S-Holiday-Console/770816645



Machina on 25 January 2023
curl-6 said:

Hard to say.
On the one hand, chip supply improving and the arrival of some big exclusives finally might give it a boost.
On the other, the PS5 being more available could well reduce Xbox's sales as people opt for Sony instead, and if the reception for games like Starfield and Redfall is lukewarm or poor that will diminish their ability to move hardware.

I'm gonna lean toward optimism and say around 10 million.

These are my thoughts pretty much. I don't think Redfall is pushing any sales at all though, but Starfield could - providing it's received more like say Fallout 4 than Fallout 76.

Not growing YoY at this stage would bode poorly - that was Xbox One's trajectory (peaked in its second full year) - especially when the first few years were hobbled by shortages. There is a risk of that happening, but I am still expecting growth. My vote is 10-11 million (more 10 than 11!).