Hard to say.
On the one hand, chip supply improving and the arrival of some big exclusives finally might give it a boost.
On the other, the PS5 being more available could well reduce Xbox's sales as people opt for Sony instead, and if the reception for games like Starfield and Redfall is lukewarm or poor that will diminish their ability to move hardware.
I'm gonna lean toward optimism and say around 10 million.
These are my thoughts pretty much. I don't think Redfall is pushing any sales at all though, but Starfield could - providing it's received more like say Fallout 4 than Fallout 76.
Not growing YoY at this stage would bode poorly - that was Xbox One's trajectory (peaked in its second full year) - especially when the first few years were hobbled by shortages. There is a risk of that happening, but I am still expecting growth. My vote is 10-11 million (more 10 than 11!).