A bit suprised to see them adjusting down their forecast, but I suppose if they don't expect much from quarter 4, then their previous forecast would have required a massive holiday. Still, I would honestly still expect them to top 20m for the FY unless shortages hits them in the holiday sales.

It also seems like next quarter could potentially contain several landmarks:

• Switch software topping 1 billion
• MK8DX topping 50 million
• SSBU topping 30 million

There's also a chance hardware shipments could reach 125m, though that would require as big a holiday quarter as last year (exactly).

"While there is a gradual improvement in semiconductor and other component supplies and a recovery trend in hardware manufacturing for Nintendo Switch, taking into consideration production and sales performances thus far, we have modified theNintendo Switch hardware sales units forecast for the fiscal year. By continually working to front-load production and selecting appropriate transportation methods in preparation for the holiday season, we will work to deliver as many consoles as possible to consumers in every region of the world."

From Nintendo's financial report. The 6.68m figure for the first half of this fiscal year was also partly blamed on component shortages.

With 12.32m left to go this fiscal year, it's safe to say that the holiday quarter will be below 10m, making a flat 124m by calendar year's end the best case scenario.

Switch sports did pretty good, but it could've pulled better numbers had Nintendo released it with more sports, especially golf.

Regional Hardware Shipments

Regional Software Shipments

27 million shipped so far in Japan, can it reach Game boy or even DS sales ? (32.5 and 33 million)

To be fair the shortages were even more prevalent a year ago and they still managed to ship 10.67m, so if they're serious about delivering as many consoles as possible to consumers, I wouldn't completely write it off as a possibility, even if their forecast suggest they don't expect it currently. Honestly think it comes more down to demand. But it definitely is a tall order for sure, so landing somewhere between 124 and 125 mil does seem more likely to me.

I don't know what i'm most surprised by, that Splatoon 3 managed to sell 5 million copies in Japan in just three weeks,
or that digital sales accounted for 51% of all sales during Q1 and Q2.

PS5 outshipped the Switch for the quarter.

Switch will officially outship the PS4 next quarter by a significant amount and then pad its lead for some time to come.

https://twitter.com/nesbot_feed/status/1589922568252936192?s=46&t=_3TW8qvQ96Y_-CoCjgW93g

Nintendo is apparently considering price increases for the Switch. Absolutely crazy this late in its life cycle

I did some math if both quarters (Q4 2022 and Q1 2023 for calendar year) were down by the same amount Nintendo would ship 8.89M for Q4 2022 and 3.43M for Q1 2023. But this makes it sound like Nintendo will be doing more to ship consoles this holiday, which would likely mean a bit more for the holidays and a bit less for Q1 2023.