Raw specs no. But it will be much newer arichtecture with more modern feature sets and DLSS.

PSP was $250 in 2005 and ended up selling 82 million units so not just Nintendo fans.  In fact Nintendo fans refused to buy 3DS at $250 in 2011 so Nintendo lowered the price by $50.

4-5 months is enough time yeah but something critical you're ignoring with your examples is them being talked about in advance. Both the Switch and PS5 were first talked about well in advance before the full on reveal a few months before launch and the OLED is a hardware revision which are treated differently. Nintendo has said nothing about a Switch successor yet which means if they follow historical precedence that it's not launching soon. Now of course they may not follow that but I don't think it's something one should outright expect especially since when the successor is just a few months away rumours about it will be everywhere.

I'll likely be disappointed, but I want a dock that does some serious processing.

We haven’t seen inflation this high in 40 years, and if the RTX 4000 launch is anything to go by I think everyone is going to be shocked at what the new “normal” is going to be. 

$500 will be cheap in 2024. I would be extremely surprised if the next switch is any lower than that 

They were talked about, sure, just like we're talking about Switch 2/Super Switch whatever right now and getting leaks on the processor apparently. 

There was virtually no concrete information given by Nintendo on the NX other than it was a dedicated game system and they only even said that much to assure stockholders that they weren't abandoning game hardware at a press event where they first announced they would be making smartphone games. After that there was pretty much no actual information about the system from Nintendo, certainly nothing to build hype or excitement. 

So Switch was basically 4 1/2 months from knowing basically nothing confirmed about the system (other than some leaks not provided by Nintendo, but you can say the same thing about Super Switch/Switch 2 right now) to being available to play in your home. 

I mean do you logically think even think they would say "hey yeah Switch 2 is coming" right now anyway? That would be monumentally stupid, why would you hurt your own Switch holiday sales for no reason? Even if it's a 2024 or 2025 product it wouldn't make a lot of sense to undercut existing Switch sales for no reason especially when Nintendo has no second hardware line anymore. 

This is why 1+ year hardware announcements I think are pretty much dwindling (unless your present hardware is selling below expectation), it's a stupid thing to do basically. To be honest from leaks we may know more about Switch 2 at this point than was known about the OG Switch at this point ... if the Tegra 239 is indeed the processor, then we know pretty much the performance of the Switch 2 roughly already, we have the number of CUDA cores, CPU cores, and number of SM units and even hardware features like DLSS and raytracing. 

Eurogamer leaked the hybrid NX concept 7 months prior to launch but no specifics on the actual chipset being used. We're currently 8 months out from May 2023, if they are going for that date (again I'm not saying for sure they are, but just if that is a hypothetical window), we probably know more about Switch 2 right now than we did about Switch 1. I think the NX using a Tegra X1 leaked a bit afterwards, so we know about the same roughly about both systems. 

The thing about announcing the next gen switch before the holiday...would probably kill the current switch sales. Nintendo still has some heavy hitters waiting for sale this holiday season so I do anticipate the switch to have strong sales for the remainder of this year. The only reason why Nintendo teased the switch earlier in 2016...is because the Wii U was a dead console. They had nothing to make people go wild during the holidays of 2016 and the 3ds was on it's last legs so it was clearly a better move to continue forward with the next gen console and build hype for the switch instead of saying we have nothing for you this holiday and the first quarter of 2017.

I do anticipate that the switch successor will be announced after the holidays and at least 5 months before the release of the next gen console. If the rumors are true, Nvidia may have shutdown the fabrication of the tegra x1 mariko at the end of 2021 so it's a possibility that Nintendo has been working with a limited supply of switches in general. When there's smoke there's fire, so it would make sense that a next gen switch is coming sooner than people think, it also goes hand in hand with Nintendo facing some shortages as they have to ration what stock they have to make it through this holiday season and possibly the first half of 2023.


We should take this with a grain of salt but it could hold some weight here are a few sources that Nvidia has been rumored to stopping the production of the tegra x1.
https://mynintendonews.com/2021/03/12/rumour-nvidia-is-apparently-halting-production-of-the-tegra-x1-chipset-thats-in-nintendo-switch-consoles/
https://www.pcmag.com/news/report-nvidia-to-end-production-of-nintendo-switch-tegra-chip
https://wccftech.com/nintendo-switch-soc-production-stopping/

I could see $450. $500 might be too high, but again Nintendo should avoid initially marketing this as a full stop replacement and just treat it like another premium Switch hardware option ... not meant to initially replace the existing Switch. 

Switch OLED - $299.99

Switch Lite - $179.99

Super Switch - $449.99

I mean Switch OLED is already more expensive than the Series S, good luck putting a Series S into your coat pocket. 

The leaked specs are pretty impressive too ... it would justify a $450 cost ... the 3DS was an outdated chip with a 3D screen gimmick that was neat but kinda wore out the wow factor after a few days of play. This Tegra 239 is pretty legit, PS4 style performance or better with a much more modern feature set and better CPU, DLSS upscaling so you can play games at home at 1440p-4K is not too shabby at all. 

$500 is not cheap when inflation keeps happening but wages are not going up. Prepare to be surprise as Nintendo is not that suicidal. Plus why would someone buy a Switch 2 when they can have a PS5 for the same price?

Nintendo isn't launching at $500.