I’m guessing Q1 2024 for the launch. By that point Ampere will be old, and therefore cheap.

Because of inflation, I think the launch price will be around $500. I believe it will be fully backward compatible with the original switch, and I believe it will use Nvidia specific features to boot performance/upscale the image of Switch 1 games.

The amount of forum users is honestly overrated. The biggest forums like Resetera have like 50,000 registered users, and that isn't even active users, probably only about 30,000 of that are active regular posters. This forum is maybe a few thousand regular posters maybe. 

It's not like Nintendo gave any information, they just announced something called the NX and that it would be a dedicated game hardware, they would not comment on what it was, the hybrid nature, which games, what the hardware capability was, I don't think Nintendo even confirmed Nvidia was the chip supplier until October 2016. 

EDIT: Here's actually an article that explains why Nintendo had to announce NX at that time (March 2015) ... NX was announced at the same investors event where Nintendo announced they would be working with DeNA on cell phone games, they had to announce NX to reassure investors that they weren't leaving the gaming hardware business. 

https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2015/mar/17/nintendo-new-gaming-hardware-platform-codenamed-nx

The announcement was made during a hastily convened press conference in Tokyo on Tuesday. The main purpose of the event was to explain Nintendo’s decision to enter the smartphone gaming market, via a partnership with smartphone games specialist DeNA.

However, Nintendo’s chief executive, Satoru Iwata, went on to announce the hardware platform in order to assuage fears that Nintendo may move away from manufacturing dedicated games machines.

You're not going to see 1+ year advance hardware announcements any more I don't think unless a system has really flopped because all you're doing by announcing a system that far in advance is undercutting sales and probably a holiday season of existing hardware and there's no point to doing that. 

4-5 months in the modern world is more than enough time to announce an electronics product and have it out for release. Cell phones get announced and are available the same week these days, even the old Apple cycle of announcing an iPhone and having it available maybe 6 weeks later is too much lead time these days. Switch, Switch OLED, Switch Lite, Playstation 5 are all basically 3-5 months from actual product reveal to being on store shelves. 

You're forgetting the lurkers. Forum users, reddit users, Twitter users. Gaming has a huge number of people who follow news and rumors in advance. The average gamer is not the target of the release window. 

The nature of smartphone market is a bit different. Two, three and even four lines of smartphones coexist in the market for a couple of years. Most of smartphones are functionally the same, just with some hardware upgrades. Even software support and SO is the same for different models, hence you don't need to feel totally alienated to not have the newest version.

In console one line pretty much replaces the other. It's expected the next generation games to not be always playable on your current consoles. Acquiring hardware is a mostly planned purchase, you get a console and calculate how many years of support and games you have on it before replacing your machine. The announcement of PS5 (one year before its launch) haven't killed PS4 momentum in any sense, because people who were waiting for the sixth year to get their FIRST PS4 were never the target of a launch window for PS5. The pool of consumers is essentially different. Even if some people decided to not buy a PS4 it didn't hurt Sony in long term, a weaker quarter sales can be easily maked up by a very strong PS5 launch which was precisely what happened

For manufacturers is actually good business if people adopt their next hardware asap, because the purpose of a new hardware is to replace the old one  

Well traditionally one console has replaced the other, but I don't think that's necessarily going to be the case going forward. Nintendo doesn't have to do that unless they want to. They could have the new hardware co-exist with the existing hardware for years if they want. The 3DS-Switch kind of already did this but the 3DS was a lot weaker by that point in its lifecycle just because it was never a huge sales monster to begin with. 

4-5 months is enough time these days to unveil a new system and have it on storeshelves, Switch, Switch OLED, PS5 are all 5 months or less from product reveal and actual information being given to being available to purchase. 

I'm not really sure what announcing 1 year early really does. Even "hardcore gamer" is still going to wait to see the actual system and games available before getting all that excited. 

Reshitera. What a cesspool for the biggest hypocrite morons.

Will it compete with ps4 pro?

If you really look at it for the first two years or their product cycle or more the PS5 and XSX are basically just "Pro Pro" models of the PS4 and XO.

There's no exclusive games, even this fall's big gun Sony game is God Of War Ragnarok which is also on the PS4.

You just get better graphics on the newer hardware, which was basically the same thing the PS4 Pro and XBox One X did for PS4 and XBO.

Nintendo could do the same, even though the new hardware they have is intended to be a generational leap over the predecessor, they could just have it operate like a Pro model for a couple of years until they want to transition over more fully. 3rd parties could make exclusive games for it, but Nintendo's allowed that already on the GBC, DSi, N3DS, etc. 

Most games have backwards compatibility because it takes 5+ years to make many games now. Rockstar made 5+ games for the PS3 but only ONE game for the PS4.

The PS5 is not at all similar to a PS4 Pro Pro. It has a MASSIVE increase in CPU power allowing for game engines that won't even boot up on the PS4. It has 100x faster storage than the PS4, again, allowing new engines that can't even load up on the PS4.

And GPU wise, yeah it is only twice as fast, but it is RDNA2 and has many features that the PS4 can't use. Not just ray tracing, but DirectX 12 level features. The GPU is the smallest improvement, mainly allowing double the frame rate of old PS4 Pro games until those features are put to use.

Of course the PS5 is a huge hardware upgrade over the PS4, just as this Drake chip likely will be a massive leap above the Tegra X1 that's in the current Switch.

But functionally to date, the PS5 (and XBSX) are basically just a PS4 Pro Pro to this point (this will change in time naturally). All the major games on the PS5 or XBSX are available on the older platform. 

And hey maybe there's nothing wrong with that. Both are selling very well, people seem OK with enjoying games with the higher fidelity even if they're not exclusive with the understanding at a later point in the generation they will start to get exclusive titles. 

If Nintendo ordered this next gen Switch chip back in say 2019 and maybe feel like they don't really need it just yet but it is wrapping up design production, and likely Nvidia expects to be paid and even possibly expects royalty payments per year for a certain number of units ... Nintendo might as well just release the new model and treat it like a premium version of the current Switch for a couple of years if they want. It wouldn't really be all that different from what the PS5 and XBSX have been for their first two years on market. 

Only Nintendo fans would buy a several hundred dollar handheld. Sorry, Nvidia will rip them off like they are (Nvidia) presently with us consumers.