I think this will launch with Zelda: TotK next May and it is a successor hardware, but Nintendo won't be migrating from the current Switch ecosystem any time soon. It'll just get the same Nintendo Switch games from Nintendo but in 4K maybe with some added effects (ray tracing or better lighting).

They likely ordered development on this chip years ago, like 2019 if not sooner, so it's simply finished or close to finished.

It'll be $399.99 minimum too I think, since I don't think the OG Switch is going anywhere, this will initially just be more like an additive model so it won't have the responsibility of having to carry an entire product line at first.

Probably a bunch of 3rd party exclusives though like Street Fighter VI and RE4 Remake and FF7 Remake I can see being announced for it.

Ordering new hardware isn't like going into a drive through and just picking out a hamburger and fries. It takes years of development, Nintendo likely greenlit development on this chip with Nvidia in 2019 if not sooner than that even. And that makes perfect sense, if you're sitting in 2019, you're presuming a 6 year product cycle and have no idea that COVID is coming or a chip shortage is happening, you would assume 2023 would be the time you need a new chip because that's exactly the same time frame even the successful DS and Wii needed new hardware. 

So it just happens to be ready probably by now, and there likely is no benefit to Nintendo to just sit on the hardware. They may even be under a contractual agreeement that they have to ship XYZ number of units because Nvidia is expecting to be paid per unit some level or royalty fee beginning in 2023. Nvidia doesn't work for free and certainly isn't supplying several years of R&D to Nintendo in a "just pay me when you feel like it" fashion. 

I don't think Switch-Super Switch will be a traditional console transition in that I don't think one hardware is going to just suddenly stop. I can even see Mario Kart 9 being cross-gen, you'll just get it in 4K maybe with some ray tracing turned on for Super Switch (Switch 2). The Switch userbase is too big for Nintendo to want to go back to something with only 10-20-30 million users for a while. They'll likely just have a very, very long cross gen period and let 3rd parties make exclusives if they want, but I suspect all major Switch titles for a long while will still work on the OG Switch. Which really isn't that different from what Sony and MS are doing, it's almost 2 years into the PS5/XSX product cycle and there's virtually no exclusives. It even looks like GTAVI may be cross gen. 

Games will just look and run better :) 

Ordering new hardware isn't like going into a drive through and just picking out a hamburger and fries. It takes years of development, Nintendo likely greenlit development on this chip with Nvidia in 2019 if not sooner than that even. And that makes perfect sense, if you're sitting in 2019, you're presuming a 6 year product cycle and have no idea that COVID is coming or a chip shortage is happening, you would assume 2023 would be the time you need a new chip because that's exactly the same time frame even the successful DS and Wii needed new hardware. 

So it just happens to be ready probably by now, and there likely is no benefit to Nintendo to just sit on the hardware. They may even be under a contractual agreeement that they have to ship XYZ number of units because Nvidia is expecting to be paid per unit some level or royalty fee beginning in 2023. Nvidia doesn't work for free and certainly isn't supplying several years of R&D to Nintendo in a "just pay me when you feel like it" fashion. 

I don't think Switch-Super Switch will be a traditional console transition in that I don't think one hardware is going to just suddenly stop. I can even see Mario Kart 9 being cross-gen, you'll just get it in 4K maybe with some ray tracing turned on for Super Switch (Switch 2). The Switch userbase is too big for Nintendo to want to go back to something with only 10-20-30 million users for a while. They'll likely just have a very, very long cross gen period and let 3rd parties make exclusives if they want, but I suspect all major Switch titles for a long while will still work on the OG Switch. Which really isn't that different from what Sony and MS are doing, it's almost 2 years into the PS5/XSX product cycle and there's virtually no exclusives. It even looks like GTAVI may be cross gen. 

And considering Nvidia is making millions off the Switch by selling almost 10 year old chips, I have no doubt they're beyond happy lol.

What has been consistent is getting a Switch revision every other year. 2017-launch Switch. 2019-Switch Lite. 2021-Switch OLED. With that consistent kind of releases, I wouldn't be surprised if we do get another hardware revision in 2023. Before this rumor, I was kind of expecting a Switch Lite OLED in 2023

For sure I could see a revision...  I just don't think it will be the 4k DSLL 60 fps Pro some people are expecting.  

I think a lot of the reason for the pushback on your highly probable suggestion is that many don’t understand production timelines.

I also strongly agree that Nintendo won’t kill the Switch before the launch of Switch 2.

Only if they are patched/built with the technology in mind.

Lot's of assumptions there.
The current Switch -is- using parts picked off a menu order. Everything is stock standard.
Nintendo literally did zero development in conjunction with any chip manufacturers.

Where Nintendo invested their time is on the form factor itself and the software stacks.

It was probably the best business decision for both.

Tegra X1 is Archaic and is built at an old and out dated 16nm process, there isn't a lot of competition on that node (But that is changing as 32nm and older are being depreciated by TSMC) so all pandemic long Nintendo managed to avoid part shortages for the most part. - They still occurred, just not as significantly.

It won't be. The display will still be your limitation. 1080P max... 720P more likely.

Well, supposedly it's about base Xbox One in handheld mode, which is to say about 6x more powerful than Switch 1 in handheld mode. When docked I'd guess we'll see power closer to PS4 Pro. If I had to guess, we'll get like 480-540p native DLSS'd up to 900-1080p in handheld mode (assuming of course that Nintendo is willing to pay for a 1080p screen), and something like 900p native DLSS'd up to 1800p when docked.

Base XBO will be it's max not it's min. This is Jetson Oriin. It's max output for what Nintendo will want is the lower end model that has a max output of 102GB bandwidth. This is not a 4K gaming machine.

For starters, Jetson Orin NX is 2 tflop to base Xbox One's 1.3 tflop. Secondly, Ampere is a far more advanced architecture than the GCN 1 GPU's used in base Xbox One and base PS4, about 5 or 6 GPU generations more advanced, so flops don't even come close to giving you the whole picture; based on the closest PC benchmark comparison I was able to make online just now, a 2 tflop Ampere GPU should be about 35-40% more powerful than the 1.8 tflop GCN GPU in base PS4 even with the lesser memory bandwidth of LPDDR5 vs PS4's GDDR5. Lastly, we still don't know if Nintendo's customized T239 will be cut down to the same degree as Jetson Orin NX, it could have slightly more cores, run at a higher clock rate, have an increased bus width and faster memory bandwidth.

This is Nintendo we are talking about, so they may go on the low end as you suggest, but then they may also realize they need to do a bit more than the minimum if they want ports of games built for Xbox Series/PS5/PC without those ports requiring Switch 1 tier high levels of optimization. Personally I choose to remain optimistic, hoping for performance somewhere between base PS4 and PS4 Pro when docked, and about base Xbox One tier in handheld mode (except with the advantage of DLSS which Xbox One and PS4 obviously doesn't have). 

And as usual, the most important part will be the use of DLSS 2.2 features.

A base XBO will certainly not be it's maximum. The RAM bandwidth alone is almost double what the base Xbox One had available, and I find it highly doubtful that Nintendo blocks off 3GB for the OS like MS did for the Xbox One. 

The Switch 2, if indeed using an Orin processor, will be similarly as capable to the base Xbox One as the original Switch is to the 360, maybe slightly worse. Before you call me crazy on this, I'd like to remind everyone that, by the time the Switch 2 releases, a similar amount of time would have passed. 

Xbox 360 (2005) ------> Switch (2017) = almost 12 years. 

Xbox One (2013) ------> Switch 2 (2024) = almost 11 years. 

And, lets be honest, the Xbox One was underpowered from the start. 

In 2015/16 yes, Tegra X1 was an off the shelf get for Nintendo and was attractively priced because Nvidia was desperate to recoup costs on it. They bet hard that the Tegra line was big for consumer electronic products and in tons of devices like tablets and what not, and largely that vision failed. Nintendo got the chip likely for a steal of a price as a result, otherwise they likely would've wanted a custom chip design where they have input into the chip design.

The thing is with a Switch successor, this was likely never going to work again, the Tegra chip line isn't some ubiquitous product line that Nvidia makes, they make a few for self driving cars but that is probably for Nvidia right now a small market. There isn't a "Tegra X4" or something for Nintendo to just pick off a shelf and put into a game console because Nvidia basically stopped making traditional successors to the Tegra X1 after the Tegra Parker in 2017 as there wasn't wide enough to demand from other vendors for the Tegra chips. There are Tegra Orin boards but those are for smart cars with a lot of components for A.I. learning, not really suitable for a game system.

The Tegra T239 or "Drake" likely is being made for Nintendo expressly. The codename NVN2 also pretty heavily hints at that as NVN is Nvidia's codename for the current Nintendo Switch. And I'd say if the chip is finished (with the way leaks are coming out on it, I'd say it's either imminent or close to completion) then it's not a wild proposition to say Nintendo is likely on the hook to pay up for it soon. The way console manufacturing/component fees go there could also be a guaranteed royalty fee on top of that too. 

It's quite possible the situation here is Nintendo ordered development of Tegra Drake around 2018 or 2019. 3-4 years sounds about dead on for the amount of time a new chip architecture in the Tegra line would need, so this chip starting to show up in leaks as we've gone on in 2022 would make sense. Now whether Nintendo needs the chip at this point is kind of irrelevant, they're probably going to be on the hook for paying for it and even possibly on the hook for per unit royalty fees (companies like AMD, Nvidia often get a per unit cut and a minimum order guarantee in exchange for giving the vendor a better per unit price). If that's the case I think Nintendo just goes ahead and releases it but will keep their Switch software lineup cross-gen for several more years, just letting the newer system have 4K DLSS-ed versions of those games. 

For starters, Jetson Orin NX is 2 tflop to base Xbox One's 1.3 tflop.

2 tflop Ampere GPU should be about 35-40% more powerful than the 1.8 tflop GCN GPU in base PS4 even with the lesser memory bandwidth of LPDDR5 vs PS4's GDDR5.  

A base XBO will certainly not be it's maximum. The RAM bandwidth alone is almost double what the base Xbox One had available, and I find it highly doubtful that Nintendo blocks off 3GB for the OS like MS did for the Xbox One. 

The Switch 2, if indeed using an Orin processor, will be similarly as capable to the base Xbox One as the original Switch is to the 360, maybe slightly worse. Before you call me crazy on this, I'd like to remind everyone that, by the time the Switch 2 releases, a similar amount of time would have passed. 

Xbox 360 (2005) ------> Switch (2017) = almost 12 years. 

Xbox One (2013) ------> Switch 2 (2024) = almost 11 years. 

And, lets be honest, the Xbox One was underpowered from the start.