Japanese third party support is going to keep PS5 from cratering in the land of the rising sun.
No matter what, it's still going to get Final Fantasy, Dragon Quest, Monster Hunter, and all of Square's/Capcom's AAA output by default.
That alone will put its sales above, say, the Vita.
If we are talking about ps5 in a hardware conversation, i don't think alot of people are taking the fact that scalping of the system between 2021-2023 in Japan and the true sales of it afterward. Will ps5 sell more than 5mil? Almost guaranteed, 9mil-10mil? No chance. 7mil seems like a good target lifetime but that's only a partial explanation to what REALLY sold in japan.
There are 2mil+ ps5 consoles sold in Japan, out of those consoles how much of them are actually in Japan? Does 7mil or around that justify the software sales that it will have? As of now the 2 things we know about but not how much is how many consoles are scalped and how much of the Japanese market is consumed by f2p games (like GI for example)
Software doesn't back it up in a positive light, we know FF and MHW2 will be exclusives (MHW2 I know XBS but its japan) but.... How much of those 2 franchises will decline from ps4 games? FFXV and MHW sold 1.5mil and 4.0mil respectively. What are you expecting from FF16 and MHW2? DQ will have a nsw or nsw2 sku, you think the split will be close and if so how come (we are talking about a multi million franchise)
PS5 will get P6, Both FFVIIR and I'm sure other big ga,es like KH4, etc. But that's not stopping the overall decline and I don't even think there will be 5mil ps5 lifetime that stay in japan (not to get confused with unique owners)