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Forums - Sales Discussion - Famitsu Sales: Week 37, 2022 (Sep 05 - Sep 11)

kazuyamishima on 20 September 2022

The PS5 can get all the software support they can and want, but unless Sony makes a portable version of the PS5, they won't sell more than 10 million PS5s in Japan.



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curl-6 on 20 September 2022
tbone51 said:
curl-6 said:

Japanese third party support is going to keep PS5 from cratering in the land of the rising sun.
No matter what, it's still going to get Final Fantasy, Dragon Quest, Monster Hunter, and all of Square's/Capcom's AAA output by default.
That alone will put its sales above, say, the Vita.

If we are talking about ps5 in a hardware conversation, i don't think alot of people are taking the fact that scalping of the system between 2021-2023 in Japan and the true sales of it afterward. Will ps5 sell more than 5mil? Almost guaranteed, 9mil-10mil? No chance. 7mil seems like a good target lifetime but that's only a partial explanation to what REALLY sold in japan.

There are 2mil+ ps5 consoles sold in Japan, out of those consoles how much of them  are actually in Japan? Does 7mil or around that justify the software sales that it will have? As of now the 2 things we know about but not how much is how many consoles are scalped and how much of the Japanese market is consumed by f2p games (like GI for example)

Software doesn't back it up in a positive light, we know FF and MHW2 will be exclusives (MHW2 I know XBS but its japan) but.... How much of those 2 franchises will decline from ps4 games? FFXV and MHW sold 1.5mil and 4.0mil respectively. What are you expecting from FF16 and MHW2? DQ will have a nsw or nsw2 sku, you think the split will be close and if so how come (we are talking about a multi million franchise)

PS5 will get P6, Both FFVIIR and I'm sure other big ga,es like KH4, etc. But that's not stopping the overall decline and I don't even think there will be 5mil ps5 lifetime that stay in japan (not to get confused with unique owners)

Dragon Quest could always pull a MH World and skip Switch if Sony moneyhat it. We know it's UE5 so no way it's not on PS5.

As for FF16 and MH Next, it will depend on what the supply situation is at the time, but they should sell a ton of PS5s.

All of Square and Capcom's AAA games for the next almost-a-decade will come to PS5 too.

We'll probably never know how many PS5s actually stay in Japan but the total sold there will definitely pass 7 million. Current sales are the result of severe shortages which won't last forever.



Ashadelo on 21 September 2022
curl-6 said:
tbone51 said:

If we are talking about ps5 in a hardware conversation, i don't think alot of people are taking the fact that scalping of the system between 2021-2023 in Japan and the true sales of it afterward. Will ps5 sell more than 5mil? Almost guaranteed, 9mil-10mil? No chance. 7mil seems like a good target lifetime but that's only a partial explanation to what REALLY sold in japan.

There are 2mil+ ps5 consoles sold in Japan, out of those consoles how much of them  are actually in Japan? Does 7mil or around that justify the software sales that it will have? As of now the 2 things we know about but not how much is how many consoles are scalped and how much of the Japanese market is consumed by f2p games (like GI for example)

Software doesn't back it up in a positive light, we know FF and MHW2 will be exclusives (MHW2 I know XBS but its japan) but.... How much of those 2 franchises will decline from ps4 games? FFXV and MHW sold 1.5mil and 4.0mil respectively. What are you expecting from FF16 and MHW2? DQ will have a nsw or nsw2 sku, you think the split will be close and if so how come (we are talking about a multi million franchise)

PS5 will get P6, Both FFVIIR and I'm sure other big ga,es like KH4, etc. But that's not stopping the overall decline and I don't even think there will be 5mil ps5 lifetime that stay in japan (not to get confused with unique owners)

Dragon Quest could always pull a MH World and skip Switch if Sony moneyhat it. We know it's UE5 so no way it's not on PS5.

As for FF16 and MH Next, it will depend on what the supply situation is at the time, but they should sell a ton of PS5s.

All of Square and Capcom's AAA games for the next almost-a-decade will come to PS5 too.

We'll probably never know how many PS5s actually stay in Japan but the total sold there will definitely pass 7 million. Current sales are the result of severe shortages which won't last forever.

Hasnt DQ always gone to whatever system has the highest in sales by default?



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curl-6 on 21 September 2022
Ashadelo said:
curl-6 said:

Dragon Quest could always pull a MH World and skip Switch if Sony moneyhat it. We know it's UE5 so no way it's not on PS5.

As for FF16 and MH Next, it will depend on what the supply situation is at the time, but they should sell a ton of PS5s.

All of Square and Capcom's AAA games for the next almost-a-decade will come to PS5 too.

We'll probably never know how many PS5s actually stay in Japan but the total sold there will definitely pass 7 million. Current sales are the result of severe shortages which won't last forever.

Hasnt DQ always gone to whatever system has the highest in sales by default?

There's no rule that says they have to. Sony could moneyhat the game to try to bolster their position in Japan. It's being made on Unreal Engine 5 so it's almost certainly not a Switch exclusive. Monster Hunter had a long history of success on the 3DS yet World still skipped Nintendo.



Kakadu18 on 21 September 2022
curl-6 said:
Ashadelo said:

Hasnt DQ always gone to whatever system has the highest in sales by default?

There's no rule that says they have to. Sony could moneyhat the game to try to bolster their position in Japan. It's being made on Unreal Engine 5 so it's almost certainly not a Switch exclusive. Monster Hunter had a long history of success on the 3DS yet World still skipped Nintendo.

Dragon Quest doesn't belong solely to Square Enix. The creator Yuji Horii from Armor Project has afaik full control over the franchise and would not allow for it to get endangered like that. The only reason why DQ XI even came to the PS4 in the first place was because he wanted to make a home console DQ game since there hadn't been one since DQ XIII.

Dragon Quest Treasures is even Switch exclusive. There's a chance of approximately 0% that DQ XII gets moneyhatted by Sony. 



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curl-6 on 21 September 2022
Kakadu18 said:
curl-6 said:

There's no rule that says they have to. Sony could moneyhat the game to try to bolster their position in Japan. It's being made on Unreal Engine 5 so it's almost certainly not a Switch exclusive. Monster Hunter had a long history of success on the 3DS yet World still skipped Nintendo.

Dragon Quest doesn't belong solely to Square Enix. The creator Yuji Horii from Armor Project has afaik full control over the franchise and would not allow for it to get endangered like that. The only reason why DQ XI even came to the PS4 in the first place was because he wanted to make a home console DQ game since there hadn't been one since DQ XIII.

Dragon Quest Treasures is even Switch exclusive. There's a chance of approximately 0% that DQ XII gets moneyhatted by Sony. 

We'll see; I don't think we can rule it out, Sony have shown many times they are willing to moneyhat, and if they want to strengthen their position in Japan it's an obvious choice. Being a UE5 game it's basically guaranteed to be on PS5, so all they'd have to do is pay to keep off Switch.

Last edited by curl-6 - on 21 September 2022

Farsala on 21 September 2022
tbone51 said:
curl-6 said:

Japanese third party support is going to keep PS5 from cratering in the land of the rising sun.
No matter what, it's still going to get Final Fantasy, Dragon Quest, Monster Hunter, and all of Square's/Capcom's AAA output by default.
That alone will put its sales above, say, the Vita.

If we are talking about ps5 in a hardware conversation, i don't think alot of people are taking the fact that scalping of the system between 2021-2023 in Japan and the true sales of it afterward. Will ps5 sell more than 5mil? Almost guaranteed, 9mil-10mil? No chance. 7mil seems like a good target lifetime but that's only a partial explanation to what REALLY sold in japan.

There are 2mil+ ps5 consoles sold in Japan, out of those consoles how much of them  are actually in Japan? Does 7mil or around that justify the software sales that it will have? As of now the 2 things we know about but not how much is how many consoles are scalped and how much of the Japanese market is consumed by f2p games (like GI for example)

Software doesn't back it up in a positive light, we know FF and MHW2 will be exclusives (MHW2 I know XBS but its japan) but.... How much of those 2 franchises will decline from ps4 games? FFXV and MHW sold 1.5mil and 4.0mil respectively. What are you expecting from FF16 and MHW2? DQ will have a nsw or nsw2 sku, you think the split will be close and if so how come (we are talking about a multi million franchise)

PS5 will get P6, Both FFVIIR and I'm sure other big ga,es like KH4, etc. But that's not stopping the overall decline and I don't even think there will be 5mil ps5 lifetime that stay in japan (not to get confused with unique owners)

You can't really have this kind of conversation about the PS5 unless you equally talk about it with other consoles including the Switch and Xbox Series. 26m Switch, outsold the 3DS, but how many went to China and other countries? 300k XBS, easily outselling XB1, but how many went to China and other countries?

Rol gave me a partial answer for China a few months ago, but that doesn't account for the even poorer countries that would benefit from Japan's low price as well.



Kakadu18 on 21 September 2022
curl-6 said:
Kakadu18 said:

Dragon Quest doesn't belong solely to Square Enix. The creator Yuji Horii from Armor Project has afaik full control over the franchise and would not allow for it to get endangered like that. The only reason why DQ XI even came to the PS4 in the first place was because he wanted to make a home console DQ game since there hadn't been one since DQ XIII.

Dragon Quest Treasures is even Switch exclusive. There's a chance of approximately 0% that DQ XII gets moneyhatted by Sony. 

We'll see; I don't think we can rule it out, Sony have shown many times they are willing to moneyhat, and if they want to strengthen their position in Japan it's an obvious choice. Being a UE5 game it's basically guaranteed to be on PS5, so all they'd have to do is pay to keep off Switch.

It doesn't matter if Sony want to moneyhat DQ XII if Armor Project says no. Square Enix has almost no say in this.



curl-6 on 21 September 2022
Kakadu18 said:
curl-6 said:

We'll see; I don't think we can rule it out, Sony have shown many times they are willing to moneyhat, and if they want to strengthen their position in Japan it's an obvious choice. Being a UE5 game it's basically guaranteed to be on PS5, so all they'd have to do is pay to keep off Switch.

It doesn't matter if Sony want to moneyhat DQ XII if Armor Project says no. Square Enix has almost no say in this.

But what if Armor Project say yes?



Kakadu18 on 21 September 2022
curl-6 said:
Kakadu18 said:

It doesn't matter if Sony want to moneyhat DQ XII if Armor Project says no. Square Enix has almost no say in this.

But what if Armor Project say yes?

Why would they? They have always followed the market leader and have recently gone multiplat. Accepting a moneyhat from Sony would be detrimental to the growth of the IP and the sales of DQ XII and future installments. Square Enix executives like taking checks for short term profit. Yuji Horii on the other hand is making DQ games out of passion and wants them to succeed. Dragon Quest is his baby.

If he does say yes to a PS5 exclusivity offer for DQ XII, they will be lucky if it sells 2mil WW lifetime. 80% of the DQ fanbase is in Japan. DQ XI sold 2mil at launch in Japan on PS4 and 3DS.