so you agree its not very likely

Monster Hunter never got a really big push outside of Japan before MHW. That was the first time it got a huge marketing campaign and was treated like a genuinely big deal.

With Dragon Quest Nintendo has tried to push the franchise in the west starting with the very first installment. And only with DQ IX they actually for the first time succeeded to get it to sell over 1mil outside of Japan. With MH that had already happened with several games, which include MH4U and MHGU.

They are trying a new approach looking the first teaser. They teased a more darker approach, I think they will focus more on production value and make some gameplay changes this time. They stated they want next game to define the future of the franchise for the next 20 years, so I'm expecting this game to be a HUGE event, not just an incremental sequel 

There are market for JRPGs in West, we can see by games like Ocopath Travaler selling 3 million copies and Persona 5 5 million copies. Most of them outside Japan. I see no reason why DQ cannot pull a Persona 5 and sells 3 to 4 million outside Japan. 

I think the problem with DQ games is their presentation. It looks too dated, it screams 80s anime style, not popular even with current anime fans. With a better presentation, visuals and story I'm sure it can sell much better than just 1 million copies. I can see it skipping Switch and going direct to Switch 2 (the game is probably very far to be finished). I don't think it will be THAT detrimental from Japanese gamers if the game skip Switch and go to Switch 2 instead, unless for some obscure reason Switch 2 flops. 

so you agree its not very likely

I'm so confused. You're literally saying you think Sony is going to make 30m PS5's in a single year (when they have currently sold 23m after 22 months). This is such an absurdly ridiculous number, like why would you even believe such a rumor? Its obviously false. If you made a typo and meant 20.5m, that would still be a lot! I doubt PS5 could possibly sell that in a year, but it would at least be in the realm of possibility, it would just mean Sony is being optimistic. 20.5m would be realistic to make (perhaps not sell though) if they were no longer hampered by chip shortages. But 30.5m...come on, we may as well say that Nintendo is planning on putting 10m Switch's in Japan in 2023, that is as believable.

DQXII will probably skip the Switch regardless of Sony's involvement. I think they intend it to be darker, more western-friendly, and action-based, and it's being developed with Unreal Engine 5 which -combined with the other information- hints to some very high production values. Evidence suggests that they're trying to pull a Monster Hunter World. Focusing solely on Japan is a very outdated approach for a AAA title.

I expect it to release as a launch window Switch 2 multiplat (Switch 2, PS5, Series XS, PC). If Switch 2 isn't ready by then, it'll launch on the other systems then get ported a few months later.

DQXII will probably skip the Switch regardless of Sony's involvement. I think they intend it to be darker, more western-friendly, and action-based, and it's being developed with Unreal Engine 5 which -combined with the other information- hints to some very high production values. Evidence suggests that they're trying to pull a Monster Hunter World. Focusing solely on Japan is a very outdated approach for a AAA title.

I expect it to release as a launch window Switch 2 multiplat (Switch 2, PS5, Series XS, PC). If Switch 2 isn't ready by then, it'll launch on the other systems then get ported a few months later.

I don’t see this being an excuse to why DQXII would skip Switch or Switch 2. Let’s not pretend that Nintendo has only released family friendly content.

... I literally said it will be a Switch 2 launch window title. Switch 1 is an outdated and underpowered console. Like everything else, it will evetnually get left behind.

A lot of people gave "Crapcom" too much shit for the MHW announcement, thinking it'll do 2 million lifetime across all platforms and some telling them to not come back begging their savior Nintendo blah blah blah. Ambition is exactly what Dragon Quest needs to become a major franchise outside Japan, if Switch gets in the way of achieving that, then they should skip it.

Those games you listed are neither huge sellers nor particularly dark. Not that I see how it relates to what I wrote. Switch 2 obviously shouldn't be skipped altogether.

They changed their minds but were shocked of how well the PS4 version did despite the massive install base gap between PS4 and 3DS and the series being much more associated with Nintendo systems. MHW sold incredibly well in Japan too, the attach rate was absurd.

Yes, they can play it safe and continue selling 4-6 million, but I think it's a risk worth taking. Relative-failure could easily be remedied by going back to roots with the next game. Pretty sure they've confirmed that it will be darker and more action based, so risks have already been taken.