80% of MH fanbase was in Japan as well. World sold more than 20 million copies still
We never know when a franchise can make a worldwide breaktrough. I'm not implying DQ will sell as much, but if they can sell let's say 6 to 7 million copies even losing half of JP sales is a good business for them, because it can solidy the IP internationally to sell even better in the next installment
Monster Hunter never got a really big push outside of Japan before MHW. That was the first time it got a huge marketing campaign and was treated like a genuinely big deal.
With Dragon Quest Nintendo has tried to push the franchise in the west starting with the very first installment. And only with DQ IX they actually for the first time succeeded to get it to sell over 1mil outside of Japan. With MH that had already happened with several games, which include MH4U and MHGU.
They are trying a new approach looking the first teaser. They teased a more darker approach, I think they will focus more on production value and make some gameplay changes this time. They stated they want next game to define the future of the franchise for the next 20 years, so I'm expecting this game to be a HUGE event, not just an incremental sequel
There are market for JRPGs in West, we can see by games like Ocopath Travaler selling 3 million copies and Persona 5 5 million copies. Most of them outside Japan. I see no reason why DQ cannot pull a Persona 5 and sells 3 to 4 million outside Japan.
I think the problem with DQ games is their presentation. It looks too dated, it screams 80s anime style, not popular even with current anime fans. With a better presentation, visuals and story I'm sure it can sell much better than just 1 million copies. I can see it skipping Switch and going direct to Switch 2 (the game is probably very far to be finished). I don't think it will be THAT detrimental from Japanese gamers if the game skip Switch and go to Switch 2 instead, unless for some obscure reason Switch 2 flops.