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Forums - Sales Discussion - Famitsu Sales: Week 37, 2022 (Sep 05 - Sep 11)

PotentHerbs said:
Slownenberg said:

I'm so confused. You're literally saying you think Sony is going to make 30m PS5's in a single year (when they have currently sold 23m after 22 months). This is such an absurdly ridiculous number, like why would you even believe such a rumor? Its obviously false. If you made a typo and meant 20.5m, that would still be a lot! I doubt PS5 could possibly sell that in a year, but it would at least be in the realm of possibility, it would just mean Sony is being optimistic. 20.5m would be realistic to make (perhaps not sell though) if they were no longer hampered by chip shortages. But 30.5m...come on, we may as well say that Nintendo is planning on putting 10m Switch's in Japan in 2023, that is as believable.

No, Tom Henderson heard that Sony plans to manufacture 30M PS5's, which gives the rumor a lot of weight considering his track record. 

He just sullied the hell out of any previously venerable track record he built with such a projection.  


I say that based on demand (controlled by Sony) and supply (controlled by thousands of suppliers).  30.5 million PS5s produced in the current fiscal year is a figure that should not be conceptualized, uttered, written, typed, or spoken by anyone even partially connected to the industry on a professional level.



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PotentHerbs said:
kirby007 said:

so you agree its not very likely

I'm just speculating from the info Tom Henderson gave. I think stockpiling some consoles for FY24 is likely, if Sony actually manufactures 30M+ PS5's in FY23, especially if some of those units are being manufactured in November/December. 

The fiscal year ends March, not December.



When did they even say DQ XII is going to be "more action based"?



Renamed said:
PotentHerbs said:

No, Tom Henderson heard that Sony plans to manufacture 30M PS5's, which gives the rumor a lot of weight considering his track record. 

He just sullied the hell out of any previously venerable track record he built with such a projection.  


I say that based on demand (controlled by Sony) and supply (controlled by thousands of suppliers).  30.5 million PS5s produced in the current fiscal year is a figure that should not be conceptualized, uttered, written, typed, or spoken by anyone even partially connected to the industry on a professional level.

Before you say stuff like this you should first understand what fiscal year he's talking about.



yo33331 said:

When are the new numbers for japan coming out ? After 2 hours ?

1.5 hours



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Kakadu18 said:
curl-6 said:

But what if Armor Project say yes?

Why would they? They have always followed the market leader and have recently gone multiplat. Accepting a moneyhat from Sony would be detrimental to the growth of the IP and the sales of DQ XII and future installments. Square Enix executives like taking checks for short term profit. Yuji Horii on the other hand is making DQ games out of passion and wants them to succeed. Dragon Quest is his baby.

If he does say yes to a PS5 exclusivity offer for DQ XII, they will be lucky if it sells 2mil WW lifetime. 80% of the DQ fanbase is in Japan. DQ XI sold 2mil at launch in Japan on PS4 and 3DS.

Sorry for the late reply, it's been a hectic few days.

Icaro and Kyuu beat me to most of what i was gonna say, but MH World is the main example I'd point to, DQ may be trying to follow that route to wider global success, pushing for a high end console release to impress a Western audience.

Last edited by curl-6 - on 26 September 2022

Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023. (And over 130 million lifetime)

curl-6 said:
Kakadu18 said:

Why would they? They have always followed the market leader and have recently gone multiplat. Accepting a moneyhat from Sony would be detrimental to the growth of the IP and the sales of DQ XII and future installments. Square Enix executives like taking checks for short term profit. Yuji Horii on the other hand is making DQ games out of passion and wants them to succeed. Dragon Quest is his baby.

If he does say yes to a PS5 exclusivity offer for DQ XII, they will be lucky if it sells 2mil WW lifetime. 80% of the DQ fanbase is in Japan. DQ XI sold 2mil at launch in Japan on PS4 and 3DS.

Sorry for the late reply, it's been a hectic few days.

Icaro and Kyuu beat me to most of what i was gonna say, but MH World is the main example I'd point to, DQ may be trying to follow that route to wider global success, pushing for a high end console release to impress a Western audience.

Monster Hunter always had two lines of games. MHW and MHR are the continuation of that. The same is not and has never been the case with DQ. DQ XII will release on the Switch and/or Switch 2, depending on when the game releases. That is guaranteed.



Kakadu18 said:
curl-6 said:

Sorry for the late reply, it's been a hectic few days.

Icaro and Kyuu beat me to most of what i was gonna say, but MH World is the main example I'd point to, DQ may be trying to follow that route to wider global success, pushing for a high end console release to impress a Western audience.

Monster Hunter always had two lines of games. MHW and MHR are the continuation of that. The same is not and has never been the case with DQ. DQ XII will release on the Switch and/or Switch 2, depending on when the game releases. That is guaranteed.

I don't think it's guaranteed necessarily, money can always change hands and deals can be made. Sony has been aggressive in moneyhatting big games many times before.



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023. (And over 130 million lifetime)

curl-6 said:
Kakadu18 said:

Monster Hunter always had two lines of games. MHW and MHR are the continuation of that. The same is not and has never been the case with DQ. DQ XII will release on the Switch and/or Switch 2, depending on when the game releases. That is guaranteed.

I don't think it's guaranteed necessarily, money can always change hands and deals can be made. Sony has been aggressive in moneyhatting big games many times before.

Did you read my other posts in this thread? Did you see how much more the Switch version of DQX sold? And it sold out faster too. Do you realize that DQ Treasures is Switch exclusive despite there not being any deal of any sort? It's being published by Squre Enix WW.

Despite all the efforts from Nintendo for over 35 years the best the franchise could ever sell outside of Japan was barely 1.5mil out of 6.5mil with DQ XI.

It doesn't matter that it's in UE5, that can run on Switch. It doesn't matter that it's seems like they want to go for a darker tone, that won't be the first time in the franchise. That isn't something completely new for DQ.

The creators and owners of DQ won't sabotage the future of their only money maker for a quick buck for PS5 exclusivity. PS5 exclusivity would also hamper the sales potential in the west. The Switch audience is gigantic and JRPGs always sell better on the Switch in the west in every single instance that we have any data on. When the game releases the Switch installbase in the west will be bigger than the PS5's WW installbase will ever be.

"Money can always change hands" is not a good argument. Sony has never been interested in DQ deals.



Kyuu said:

DQX Offline having a 65/35 (was it?) FW physical split is hardly a flex. PS4 is a dead system in Japan, PS5 is yet to take off, and digital isn't factored in, though obviously in this instance digital might favor Switch depending on shipments vs demand.

Playstation exclusivity isn't happening (even a timed exclusivity is highly unlikely), but Switch getting skipped and Switch 2 being temporarily skipped are both possibilities. I guess you weren't around when everyone swore the next big Monster Hunter game couldn't possibly skip Nintendo platforms unless Capcom wanted to kill the franchise (and themsleves!!). Look how that turned out! Capcom's best decision ever. If Sony actually paid then that's the cherry on top, it simply means Capcom made all the right decisions.

Can you name me those JPRGs that sold better in the west? The general pattern I noticed is that games designed for lower specs and scaled up generally sell better on Switch than Playstation. But games that are designed around Playstation specs can perform very well as evidenced by countless Japanese games including JRPG's or JRPG-esque games like Final Fantasy, Kingdom Hearts, Persona, Monster Hunter, FromSoftware games, NieR, Nioh etc.

Low tech games (like DQX Offline) make little sense to buy on Playstation because the bells and whistles PS versions offer are easily outweighed by Switch's portability. I'd also argue that Switch's lower resolutions can mask some of the visual flaws that are made clearer on high resolutions. Low fidelity games can look uglier on bigger screens.

Designing for Playstation is essentially the same thing as designing for Xbox and PC. So the comparison in Square Enix's mind isn't Switch vs PS5, but rather a lower tech multiplat (Switch + PS + Xbox + PC) vs a higher tech multiplat (PS5 + Xbox Series + PC + Switch 2 late port or otherwise). If SE wants to go ambitious, it's possible that THEY would be approaching Sony for a deal as a safety net in the case the project doesn't match their commercial expectations. It's not always the platform holder that makes those deals. Hell, Sony likely never made a deal with Capcom on Monster Hunter World. They just went experimenting on their own, and the experiment was a success.

The best selling Japanese games in the west are all high tech/designed around fairly high specs. Dragon Quest may or may not benefit greatly from being a high tech video game if it ends up excellent and SE backs it with a strong marketing campaign. The biggest Japanese games in the west aren't even available on the Switch, with a few exceptions like MHR, Dragon Ball, and late ports/cloud versions.

I'm not making any bets, but skipping Switch 1 does have a lot of potential benefits to the IP with or without Sony's moneyhatting, and it's something that SE has to consider. Dragon Quest will be just fine without a Switch because gaming is so much more than just Switch, and the DQ brand is big enough to survive skipping Nintendo platforms in Japan just like MHW did before it.

Bold 1: Trials of Mana, SMT3HD, Chrono Cross, Legend of Mana (I think according to SE sold best on Switch) of the top of my head.

Like I said before, my point is that the likelyhood of a PS5 exclusivity is so low that entertaining it is simply nonsensical.

Bold 2: Once again, SE doesn't own or even develop DQ.