True, though Splatoon 3 is another big gun on 2022's side.

Nintendo Switch sales increased during a week that PS5 and XBox Series X stock improved?  I had it on good authority that could never happen.  Increases in PS5 and XS sales are supposed to reduce Switch sales.

Also, still waiting to see Switch weekly sales slump to 150,000 - 200,000, which I also had on good authority would occur before holiday 2022.

Back in 2017-2019, cliff theorists generally claimed that soon Switch would reach a point where every Nintendo fan had one, and at that point it would suddenly stop selling.
At first this number was said to be represented by the 13.5 million sales of the Wii U, but when that threshold was quickly smashed, the goalposts were moved to the 75 million of the 3DS.

Around 2020, the narrative shifted to "PS5 and Xbox Series will kill the Switch", which has proven to be no more accurate, as we're nearly two years into the life of those systems now and the Switch is still coexisting comfortably with them.

@curl-6 They are going to keep moving the goalpost.

@Mar1217 PS5 could potentially outsell the Switch in 2023, but I think it will be close, especially if a Switch revision is released in 2023.

For calendar year shipments I'm predicting 21.5m. This would be 2.17m or 9.2% down from the 23.67m shipped in  2021, after two quarters 2022 trails 2021 by 1.63m or 17.8% (7.54m to 9.17m). However Q3 will close the gap with the splatoon 3 bump and Q4 could be around 10m with Pokemon S/V pushing hardware sales. 

I was actually someone who anticipated a cliff after 2019 because of all of the main IP hitting the platform. But the momentum of Animal Crossing/Pandemic was way bigger then anticipated, I don't think anyone expected it to sell like it did. I Think the more casual audience had quite a late adoption, but it was not tied to any one particularly title in general but just the general abundance of fun and friendly experiences. This is the opposite of the Wii/DS which I think had very clear points & titles early at which the casuals were won over (Wii 2007/Wii Sports... DS 2006/Nintendogs/Braintraining).

Switch looking like it should hit 21m to 21.5m this year, putting it at 123m total. Sets Switch up well for getting to 140m next year. If Switch 2 launches holiday 2024 Switch should still be able to get to 150m by end of 2024. Then it's all about how much it can sell post-life and how long Nintendo produces it to see if it can pass PS2. If Switch 2 doesn't launch until Spring 2025 though Switch should hit 160m.

The only Switch cliff is when the successor comes out. Nintendo has plenty of tricks up their sleeve (HW price cuts, SW price cuts, plenty more games to make, hell maybe even one more HW model who knows) if they so choose.

I hope by then we've moved on, but I can just see the "cliff" proponents trying to claim they were right all along when Switch is eventually replaced and its sales naturally drop off, when what they were actually saying all along was that it was going to implode in the middle of its life as a Nintendo's flagship system.

Yeah while it does crop up from time to time, its thankfully died down a LOT from the 2017-2019 days.

I don't think it's necessarily doom and gloom to think the Switch's successor won't sell quite as much as the Switch 1; it's possible it will, but even some really successful consoles don't sell quite as much as their predecessor, like SNES and GBA.

Doesn't mean they're a failure, but the Switch has set an extremely high bar. There'd be no shame in a Switch 2 selling, say, Wii to Gameboy numbers IMHO.

On the other hand, who knows, it might sell even better. If there's one thing I've learned from over a decade following console sales its that the future is unpredictable.

I think you are overestimating Splat 3s ability to push hardware. 

I think that most people that like Splatoon has allready gotten a Switch for Splat 2, Splat 3 will push software but not much hardware.