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Forums - Sales Discussion - Famitsu Sales: Week 29, 2022 (Jul 11 - Jul 17)

yo33331 said:
curl-6 said:

Bookmarking predictions is a good way to keep track.
I even have a few from years back:

https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8673203

https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9173203

It's interesting that it has been only talk about some guys giving switch very weak predictions for it's lifecycle overall, however there have never been talk or bookmarkings like this for guys talking about how Switch will reach 200M or 180M or how it will surely pass 160M (something that is very very doubtful)

So you (and other people) have point posts that are giving way too pesimistic predictions however the posts that are wayyy too optimistic go unnoticed ? why ?

and when it is all said and done everyone will point at such post with pesimistic wrong predictions however no one will point to those optimistic ones - 160M+, 180M 200M (if for example switch finish 140M or 150M or 155M if you want.)

And also why only Switch ? Why not searching and tagging/bookmarking posts for PS4 (years ago that know can be laughed at) or PS5, XBSX or even XB1 if you want.

Also since you bookmarked it for the end of the year, okay, cool, however then we can see only one thing - the prediction of 20M. The prediction for 15 to 18M from last year is no more valid since one of the conditions I made that prediction isn't valid. (just pointing out)

Oh yeah, another question too. Why only my prediction is getting under the knive ? Why not bookmark and look at every prediction everyone made for this year in the thread about the 2022 predictions ? Why at end of the year all attetion will be here to one prediction ?

Except people have bookmarked positive predictions they never returned to those threads because so far the platform has met those predictions, look up the thread where someone predicted 100m years back or the will switch overtake PS4 thread.

Another example is Rols Open Your Eyes thread go ahead and read the first half of it, those who dismissed the optimism never returned to it. 



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Are Famitsu threads where we debate future global sales?


30 for 30 software in Japan. Yep, globally doomed.



Renamed said:

Are Famitsu threads where we debate future global sales?


30 for 30 software in Japan. Yep, globally doomed.

No.

But Japan and East Asia will follow the same path.



yo33331 said:
curl-6 said:

Bookmarking predictions is a good way to keep track.
I even have a few from years back:

https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8673203

https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9173203

It's interesting that it has been only talk about some guys giving switch very weak predictions for it's lifecycle overall, however there have never been talk or bookmarkings like this for guys talking about how Switch will reach 200M or 180M or how it will surely pass 160M (something that is very very doubtful)

So you (and other people) have point posts that are giving way too pesimistic predictions however the posts that are wayyy too optimistic go unnoticed ? why ?

and when it is all said and done everyone will point at such post with pesimistic wrong predictions however no one will point to those optimistic ones - 160M+, 180M 200M (if for example switch finish 140M or 150M or 155M if you want.)

And also why only Switch ? Why not searching and tagging/bookmarking posts for PS4 (years ago that know can be laughed at) or PS5, XBSX or even XB1 if you want.

Also since you bookmarked it for the end of the year, okay, cool, however then we can see only one thing - the prediction of 20M. The prediction for 15 to 18M from last year is no more valid since one of the conditions I made that prediction isn't valid. (just pointing out)

Oh yeah, another question too. Why only my prediction is getting under the knive ? Why not bookmark and look at every prediction everyone made for this year in the thread about the 2022 predictions ? Why at end of the year all attetion will be here to one prediction ?

Personally, I have put my Switch prediction in my signature.  I made a thread predicting Switch's success, and if I'm wrong everyone will know it, and if I'm right then everyone will know it.  My view is that if you really believe in your prediction, then you need to stand by it, and if you're wrong then you need to own up to it.



yo33331 said:
Wyrdness said:

Except people have bookmarked positive predictions they never returned to those threads because so far the platform has met those predictions, look up the thread where someone predicted 100m years back or the will switch overtake PS4 thread.

Another example is Rols Open Your Eyes thread go ahead and read the first half of it, those who dismissed the optimism never returned to it. 

Yes they have never returned yet because they give so high predictions that we have to wait through all of Switch lifecycle to prove that they will be wrong. And no the platform hasn't met those predictions. I am talking about 160M+ 180M and 200M. There are such predictions and they are not only 1, at least couple in the polls and even sometimes in the comments of the sales articles. I am not talking about 100M prediction. Even I myselft said in one of my recents posts that I expected Switch to be able to reach 100M when seeing the sales pace back in 2018 and 2019.

The_Liquid_Laser said:

Personally, I have put my Switch prediction in my signature.  I made a thread predicting Switch's success, and if I'm wrong everyone will know it, and if I'm right then everyone will know it.  My view is that if you really believe in your prediction, then you need to stand by it, and if you're wrong then you need to own up to it.

Yep, that's the way it should be!

Except up until two years ago 100m was laughed at by some people who were sure the Switch successor would be out by now the same way you think 160m is too high when realistically it can be attained go back and read the early threads. You are ironically doing what they did as under current momentum Switch is going to finish 2022 at around 125m this means your original 130m prediction will be met around the end of the FY.

Under a normal drop off this makes 160m possible despite how optimistic it seems as the platform is heading for lt sales with in that region, someone being wrong in that case if the Switch sells 155m for example is not as bad as someone declaring it can never sell 100m hence why predictions like the latter are often revisited.

As for 180m you are free to bookmark them nothing is stopping you. 



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yo33331 said:

I don't think 160M is impossible. As I said in one of my other posts. There is a difference between what is possible and what will actually happen. What will actually happen will happen because Nintendo may not choose to milk the Switch till the max. I think if Nintendo wants and do everything they can Switch can pass 160M even reach 180M with the sales pace it had and it continues to have. However I don't think Nintendo (or every other manufacturer) care about Lifetime figures after a certain point. So I think Nintendo won't do the neccessary for the Switch to pass those 160M. But again this is only my opinion and nothing is impossible of course. I am no doubting it can't be attained or reach. I doubt if it will really happen. My original prediction was made because I thought shortages will be gone by end of 2021 (which would in my opinion lower future switch sales and of course give PS5 and XBSX more sales than they are doing now.) I have changed my Lifetime prediction for the Switch this year to the range 140-150M.

I agree with your second point. Also I don't need to bookmark everything. Everything can be found. But there were couple of predictions and votes of Switch reaching 170, 180M and even 200M, yes.

You should probably articulate a bit more on your reasoning otherwise it can come across to people unintentionally as lowballing even as an opinion. Me personally I think Nintendo will keep the Switch going as it caters to two parallel markets one of which they have a monopoly on so waiting is a viable option as it gives them the option of better tech in the successor while not risking much.

For example if XSS level tech with DLSS/FSR is available now for hybrid forms but not financially viable keeping the Switch going another two years to let the tech become viable or close to it is a good idea especially when you're 110m and climbing. 

Don't be surprised if they even wait until 2025 to release a successor as they are not following the same ideal as Sony or MS and they have a monopoly on one part of the market. 



yo33331 said:
Wyrdness said:

Except people have bookmarked positive predictions they never returned to those threads because so far the platform has met those predictions, look up the thread where someone predicted 100m years back or the will switch overtake PS4 thread.

Another example is Rols Open Your Eyes thread go ahead and read the first half of it, those who dismissed the optimism never returned to it. 

Yes they have never returned yet because they give so high predictions that we have to wait through all of Switch lifecycle to prove that they will be wrong. And no the platform hasn't met those predictions. I am talking about 160M+ 180M and 200M. There are such predictions and they are not only 1, at least couple in the polls and even sometimes in the comments of the sales articles. I am not talking about 100M prediction. Even I myselft said in one of my recents posts that I expected Switch to be able to reach 100M when seeing the sales pace back in 2018 and 2019.

If it upsets you so much, you are free to bump those predictions yourself. Anyone can bookmark and bump any thread or prediction they want to, and nobody is obligated to bump any they're not interested in.

Last edited by curl-6 - on 26 July 2022

Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023. (And over 130 million lifetime)

yo33331 said:
Wyrdness said:

You should probably articulate a bit more on your reasoning otherwise it can come across to people unintentionally as lowballing even as an opinion. Me personally I think Nintendo will keep the Switch going as it caters to two parallel markets one of which they have a monopoly on so waiting is a viable option as it gives them the option of better tech in the successor while not risking much.

For example if XSS level tech with DLSS/FSR is available now for hybrid forms but not financially viable keeping the Switch going another two years to let the tech become viable or close to it is a good idea especially when you're 110m and climbing. 

Don't be surprised if they even wait until 2025 to release a successor as they are not following the same ideal as Sony or MS and they have a monopoly on one part of the market. 

My native language is not english, that's why I can't express exactly 100% right and how I would want to every single time. But I think I've learned it at good level at least. But yes I can agree with you on this. It needs improving on such things as reasoning and explaining better.

As for the XBSS good example, but then again see Gamecube and Wii, Wii U and Switch, they haven't waited or needed better tech for launching next gen console.

And what Nintendo think or plan to do we don't know yet. We will see in the following 1 to 3 years.

GC, Wii and WiiU weren't hybrids that had a monopoly as a backup, for reference look at the GB it was nine years until the GBC model came out and this was because the tech they wanted for the GBA wasn't viable yet. When waiting is an option for them they will take it. 



Agente42 said:
Kakadu18 said:

The Switch is declining in software sales? Where are we seeing that? And why would the entire market crash because of that?

The Market decreased when Sony "dominated" Japanese market, last year has decreased a little, but is bigger than dark years (2013 -2016). Digital estimates for white book I don´t remember are accurate. 

Switch will decline in an year when we are yet to see... Splatoon 3Scarlet / Violet ? I nearly fell out of my seat reading that

Currently Switch Top 50 is not far from last year's result and last year had ... check's notes ... Brilliant Diamond / Shining Pearl & Super Mario Party Superstars as the only major fall games and both of these will be outsold by Splatoon 3 alone

The only reason this year is behind last year's results so far is because Momotaro fever, last year was exceptional performance for Konami IP, it ended up being one of the strongest post holiday results we have seen for a fall game

It's pretty clear that 2022 will end up either as high as 2020 or higher at this point in terms of Software - besides the two games I've mentioned there is also a ton of third party support and you never know when a third party game might have it's break-out moment. There is also Xenoblade 3 which is by all accounts expected to breeze past 500K

Honestly people need to stop underestimating the impact this will also have on hardware demand. Two titles that are selling 3.5M+ this year alone will cause this fairly easily for the tail end of the year and we might hit 5M+ hardware yet again - easily the strongest fall line-up we've seen by Nintendo since the launch of the Switch thats likely to cause huge demand in the holidays. Software causes Hardware demand there is not two ways about it

Finally, there is the overlooked fact that this year over 50% of all sales of hardware are OLED while Lite has declined by over 50%. This means that hardware revenue value will go up as well on top of everything I already mentioned - last year OLED sold like 865K for the entire year this year we are already at 1254K and its likely it will end up between 2.5M & 3M. Meanwhile Lite sales are down so far this year with 395K sales so far compared to 832K same time last year.

End of day people continue to talk about this decline but we are not going to see it in 2022 and that is 100% certain - in fact it might be the 2nd best result on the graph you've provided



noshten said:
Agente42 said:

The Market decreased when Sony "dominated" Japanese market, last year has decreased a little, but is bigger than dark years (2013 -2016). Digital estimates for white book I don´t remember are accurate. 

Switch will decline in an year when we are yet to see... Splatoon 3Scarlet / Violet ? I nearly fell out of my seat reading that

Currently Switch Top 50 is not far from last year's result and last year had ... check's notes ... Brilliant Diamond / Shining Pearl & Super Mario Party Superstars as the only major fall games and both of these will be outsold by Splatoon 3 alone

The only reason this year is behind last year's results so far is because Momotaro fever, last year was exceptional performance for Konami IP, it ended up being one of the strongest post holiday results we have seen for a fall game

It's pretty clear that 2022 will end up either as high as 2020 or higher at this point in terms of Software - besides the two games I've mentioned there is also a ton of third party support and you never know when a third party game might have it's break-out moment. There is also Xenoblade 3 which is by all accounts expected to breeze past 500K

Honestly people need to stop underestimating the impact this will also have on hardware demand. Two titles that are selling 3.5M+ this year alone will cause this fairly easily for the tail end of the year and we might hit 5M+ hardware yet again - easily the strongest fall line-up we've seen by Nintendo since the launch of the Switch thats likely to cause huge demand in the holidays. Software causes Hardware demand there is not two ways about it

Finally, there is the overlooked fact that this year over 50% of all sales of hardware are OLED while Lite has declined by over 50%. This means that hardware revenue value will go up as well on top of everything I already mentioned - last year OLED sold like 865K for the entire year this year we are already at 1254K and its likely it will end up between 2.5M & 3M. Meanwhile Lite sales are down so far this year with 395K sales so far compared to 832K same time last year.

End of day people continue to talk about this decline but we are not going to see it in 2022 and that is 100% certain - in fact it might be the 2nd best result on the graph you've provided

Agree with you. In 2020 Animal Crossing is a behemoth, and 2021 have low software sale in Q4

Last edited by Agente42 - on 26 July 2022