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Forums - Sales Discussion - Famitsu Sales: Week 29, 2022 (Jul 11 - Jul 17)

Kakadu18 said:

The Switch is declining in software sales? Where are we seeing that? And why would the entire market crash because of that?

Animal Crossing released two whole years ago.  There is no where to go from that but down.

curl-6 bet me that PS5 + X|S sales would reach 56m before year end 2023 and he was right.
My Bet With curl-6

My Threads:
Switch Will Be #1 All Time
Zelda Will Outsell Mario (Achieved)
How Much Will MH Rise sell?
My Bet With Metallox

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nintendocentral said:

I think the Japanese software market is going to crash around 2023 - 2025. There is no PS5 software in sight and the Nintendo Switch is on the decline in software sales. 30th place on the charts will probably soon be <1000 units which has not been seen since the early 90s. I don’t think there will be any sort of issue like that in other markets though as Nintendo is not declining as much or even up year in those markets. And also, PlayStation and Xbox have a decent market share in other regions.

Tbf Famitsu does not include digital sales so obviously digital is eating some sales. Plus, digital sales percentage are only increasing every year. With subscription services also starting to thrive, obviously software sales are going to decrease. 

Agente42 said:
Kakadu18 said:

The Switch is declining in software sales? Where are we seeing that? And why would the entire market crash because of that?

The Market decreased when Sony "dominated" Japanese market, last year has decreased a little, but is bigger than dark years (2013 -2016). Digital estimates for white book I don´t remember are accurate. 

The gaming market as a whole is not crashing. The decrease in software sales in the 2011ish time is due to mobile market joining the gaming space. Mobile is huge in Asia so I think the gaming revenue in fact increasing. Console sales are going to only decrease from here at this pace. Unless someone makes a revolutionary concept, I don't see console market increasing in the future. Sony has poor reputation in Japan currently due to multiple issues, and Nintendo is the only one that has some sort of presence. Hardcore gamers are shifting to pc, casual are staying with mobile. 

yo33331 said:

1. My LT predictions from last year were if this year shortages are fixed which would lower switch sales further (in my opinion)

2. I am not lowballing anythings, that's why I always give some range for the best and worst possible performance and no I don't have bad predictions. What is bad prediction really ? everyone can make whatever they prediction they want and think of and you can't tell them that is bad or no cuz it's their right.

3. I am not squirming I am explaining because you here can't understand right what has been my opinion and prediction and hang only for the lower number as curl-6 did too.

4. No highballing, my predictions as many other people (not only me why are you turning only to me about this ? ) were thinking that sony will take better care of PS4 which in turn would increase significantly the sales for the PS4 and if they go the extra mile (with doing PS2 like support) it could even get it to reach 150M. These are different scenarious and posibilities it's not highballing.

5. They are only ridicilous in your eyes, cuz maybe you are not understanding them all right.

6. Not true. I am not dismisiing the switch or any other console. In fact I have praise it couple of times when making post for it, for the good sales it has done and the level that will reach (in my opinion 3# of all time) You are wrong here. And have never dismiss it as a handheld. It is in fact probably the first Nintendo handheld console that I have interest in and have tried and liked!

7. This is wrong. Gameboy is such an example. Just have said before that most of the Nintendo consoles don't have good legs, and most of the Sony console have good legs (well this was before PS4, now it's really 50:50 with the sony consoles, since they worsen their track record with PS4)

8. What about cliff theory ?

I am not talking to my self there, I am updating the thread so it can go up when the numbers got updated. The same thing @PAOerfulone is doing, yet you are no mentioning anything about this for his thread but you are doing for mine. And then you tell me it's nothing personal ... okay. Think whatever you want.

1. It doesn't matter if the shortages persisted or didn't. Data shows that Switch sales don't decrease in any significant capacity during weeks that PS5/Series X sales increase. Therefore, shortages don't increase the Switch's sales significantly. This point is moot. 

2. You are lowballing if you thought that the Switch would only sell 115M by 2022's end. Regardless of the reason why you thought this, it is still a lowball prediction. I mean, you basically suggested the Switch sales would be cut in half from 2021 to 2022. That's a lowball no matter how you slice it. 

3. No comment

4. It's a bit telling that, with the Switch being 16M ahead of the PS4 in the same time period, you still have a tendency to think that the PS4 would have reached 150M where as the Switch would have reached only 130M. You suggest that Sony has greater longevity, which is true, but not to such a degree that they would make up a 36M deficit. Citing the PS2 as the reason for this thinking is citing an outlier, as no console since the PS2 has had the legs of the PS2. 

5. No comment

6. You literally say "I've never dismissed it as a handheld" then proceed to call it a handheld in the exact same paragraph. I think it's the fact that you suggest the Switch is just a handheld is the dismissing he is referring to. 

7. It was actually the PS3 and PSP which showed that the legs of Sony's consoles is not significantly better than their competitors. The 360 was on the market a year longer and always sold within 1-2M of PS3's total throughout it's life (even near the end). The DS launched the same year as the PSP and did have a MUCH larger drop off. However, the PSP's final year that VGChartz tracked was 2014 and the DS was 2013 which isn't significantly different, DS was replaced a year sooner (which could explain the year difference) AND DS was at a much higher saturation point so quicker drop-offs were much more likely. The PS Vita didn't perform well, so the PS4 really just confirmed that PS2-esque legs were uncommon phenomenon's like the Gameboy's 11 year lifespan. Sony's legs are longer...but not to the degree that you are using as your reasoning as evidenced by the above.  

8. Suggesting that the Switch will go from 25M in 2021 to 13M in 2022 without even announcing a successor IS part of the cliff theory.  The decline we are seeing is more like 25M - > 20-21M which is a much more natural progression downwards. 

Last edited by Doctor_MG - on 24 July 2022

The market is not collapsed. The market grows when Switch enters and thirds go against the market leader, so even with the market increase only Nintendo is not enough for sustained growth, and after the success of Animal Crossing, 2021 was a year without a big hitter like Animal Crossing, and final monthsin 2021 have low volume of good hitters.

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yo33331 said:

1. For me it does. And this was my condition, regardless of your opinion this was my condition back then. So the condition is not met therefore my prediction for 15 to 18M can't be named wrong or even right because the conditions are not met. And as I said for me it does. Some weeks can't prove nothing. I have worked in a videogames store till 2019 and have seen with my very own eyes how different people jump from one to the other console when they are making decisions to buy or not, how many of the customers take the switch as a option when looking to buy ps or xbox (or switch) and how every month we've had similar sales of hardware and despite this some months switch is selling more units other not so and this impacts PS and xbox sales and in the end the sum of all was around equal despite different percentages of sales for all three. The baloon PS+xbox+switch has limit and when the one is strong the other two has limited range of which they can go up in sales. Just like 6th 7th 8th gen PS+XBOX all move between ~170-180M range yes different gen PS and xbox have different numbers with different market margins. You can't prove me this with few weeks of sales. When new console release they need more time to hold in the market. And of course if it wasn't for xbox or PS Switch would again die sometime in future, but it would've made many more units. Put it like this if from 2017 till now there wasnt xbox or PS and only Switch I guarantee you Switch would have sold not 110M by now but at least 160-180M. Again not all 100% of ps and xbox sales would go to switch, but decent part of them would. The same goes true reverse for the PS and xbox as well. Just like when XBOX ONE wasn't selling great those sales from 360 went to PS4. Here is the same. But because Switch is not 100% hardcore powerful home console (like PS and xbox) and it is a hybrid and it is more casual it has a bunch of different audience and buyers as well. That's why I am saying it is impacting and not all of the sales would have been from other consoles. If PS4 and XB1 were in their peak years in 2019 2020 2021, Switch would now be around 80-90M at most. PS4 and XB1 hit their saturaion point and their dying years somewhere around 2018 and mostly 2019. Then the Switch begin to rise. Why ? because 1. natural lifetime peak of course, no doubt about this. but also 2. because pretty much every gamer who wanted PS4 or XB1 had it by that time and there was only one more new and interesting option in the market - Switch. This gave at least 20% more sales for the Switch. Now 2020 and 2021 PS5 and XBSX had shortages therefore only some of the people who wanted them could buy them, the other ones were left to wait or to buy the other console available - Switch. That's helped another ~20 or maybe 25-30% of switch sales of the last year - 2021 and also this year. That's why I've made 15 to 18M prediction last year, because I thought (wrongly obviously) that shortages would be gone by january 2022, however they weren't. If they were I think because of the bigger choice all gamers would have and the availability of the new consoles the Switch sales would have been around 20 to 30% weaker this year, therefore finishing in the 15-18M range.

4. Well when I made the prediction and the opinion of the PS4 sales it was 2019 I think or beginning of 2020 and then Switch was far far from PS4 and many many people other than me were on the same page about this that PS4 was going to 130-140M. And yes I still think if Sony made the right things for the PS4 when was the right time they could get it to those 130-140M. And I am saying maybe 150M not 100% sure. Look the details please. Also where I have said Switch to finish at 130M? I said it will finish at number 3 in my opinion. But if you want exact numbers fine. I think somewhere between 140M and 150M.

As for the PS2, okay I agree, it was outlier, however Sony did the right moves when they had to with PS2 this is also true. And that's why I haven't given PS4 158M reach but around 140 or if they would have pushed it at max and hit every right move I wouldn't rule out 150M as well. But I am not saying 100% sure 150M. (just a possibility) But still 150 is less than 158M.

6. Okay home console too. For me I would use Switch more as a handheld. But I know it can be used for home console as well. And what ?

7. PSP didn't have bad legs. Didn't had good either. Just normal medium legs. So it doesn't count to sony bad record. PS3 yes. but only one console wasn't enough. With seeing PS4 bad legs now I can agree that Sony is not only about long legs. And they don't care about this too. DS I haven't told that it had bad legs just it fell hard, and yes it was more understandable because of it's saturation as you are saying, but also some part of this is because of Nintendo themselves. They killed it prematurely in 2010 when announcing the 3DS, and then again in 2011 when they did a pricecut on the 3DS to almost the same price as the DS.

8. I have never ever suggested 13M. It was 15M. It was 15 to 18M range to be exact and point 1. I explained exactly why I think so. But as I said, and quoted my post from last year, with only 1 of the conditions met my prediction for this year was 20M. 15 to 18M was if shortages are present and price cut not present. Also I have never said last year If I think for 2022 it won't have a successor, how do you know ? I may have though it was going to be successor this year which would also impact the sales of the switch ? Why are you sure ?

1. It doesn't matter if it's "for you", because we have objective measurements that show this thought is probably false. Refusing to update the model by which you predict sales after new information comes in which provides evidence to the inverse simply means that you will have a lot of false predictions in the future. Suggesting that they need more time on the market is ridiculous because more time on the market means that Switch will naturally be declining anyway, so it won't show anything to you. If you look at VGChartz graphs you will find that any week there is an increase in shipments there is not a significant decrease for Switch units. That right there provides evidence that Switch sales are independent of PS5 and Series X. This is further indicated through numerous reports which suggest that most Switch owners also own a PS or Xbox console and not used as a replacement. Your also making definitive statements without a lot of data to back it up. I mean, 360 + PS3 + Wii sales were way larger than PS4 + X1 sales ever were...yet the DS still outsold all of them. The Switch is just a different type of system than the PS5 and XSX, it's attracting an audience in a different way. There is not sufficient evidence that suggests Switch sales are significantly tied to the other two consoles. All there is is coincidental implications based on Switch doing so well while the other two consoles were fading out, but week by week evidence doesn't show any type of relationship. Heck, there were multiple months in 2021 where the PS5 and Series X actually sold more combined than they have this year, yet Switch sales in 2021 are still higher than this year, meaning that decreased availability for PS5/Series X this year did not give Switch a boost as you claim it should. I mean, I would be happy to agree to a suggestion that there is a potential change in percentage...maybe a couple millions over the last two years. But your suggestion of a 25-30% increase is just way too much. You really think that the Switch would have been down to 17M-18M units in 2021 and now down to 11-13M for 2022's total SOLELY because of stock issues for the other consoles? No...that's a cliff.

4. This was taken from August of 2021 in this thread "However if they wait till 2024 switch may reach 125-130M total lifetime, which is still impressive however far far away from the #2 or #1 selling console.". In this same month the Switch was 11.7M units ahead of the PS4 in the same timeframe. So, again, suggesting the PS4 would be 150M potential but Switch would have been 130M (and maybe even just 125) is an EXTREMELY lowball prediction. PS4 was already showing signs of significant slowdown in 2019. I agree that PS4 sales would be greater than they are right now if they did make more of them, but not 25-35M greater. The slowdown was too significant from 2018 to 2019 and 2019 to 2020. 

7. Exactly. PSP and PS3 didn't have bad legs, but they were nowhere near the PS2 and PS4 confirmed the PS2 was an outlier. Sony's legs are still often better than Nintendo, but it's not as significant as it was in the past. 

8. The August 2021 post you made said by the end of 2022 they would be at 115 when you already identified by the end of 2021 they would be at 100-102M. That's 13M-15M (meaning 15M is your high). That's an EXTREMELY lowball prediction when the year you made that prediction the Switch sold almost 25M. 

Bookmarking predictions is a good way to keep track.
I even have a few from years back:

I have bookmarked this thread for the end of the year.

Last edited by curl-6 - on 24 July 2022

yo33331 said:
curl-6 said:

Bookmarking predictions is a good way to keep track.
I even have a few from years back:

It's interesting that it has been only talk about some guys giving switch very weak predictions for it's lifecycle overall, however there have never been talk or bookmarkings like this for guys talking about how Switch will reach 200M or 180M or how it will surely pass 160M (something that is very very doubtful)

So you (and other people) have point posts that are giving way too pesimistic predictions however the posts that are wayyy too optimistic go unnoticed ? why ?

and when it is all said and done everyone will point at such post with pesimistic wrong predictions however no one will point to those optimistic ones - 160M+, 180M 200M (if for example switch finish 140M or 150M or 155M if you want.)

And also why only Switch ? Why not searching and tagging/bookmarking posts for PS4 (years ago that know can be laughed at) or PS5, XBSX or even XB1 if you want.

You are completely free to bookmark excessively optimistic predictions of the Switch and bump them later when they turn out not to be true, or claims that lowball PS or Xbox.

Heck, if you notice my sig, I have a whole public bet going regarding what I see as a severely pessimistic prediction of PS5 and Xbox Series, on which I have even staked a month of profile pic control.

Well I don't want to continue going through these long responses, so I'd like to shorten it up and end on a positive note. 

Predictions in the end are just predictions. We all have different ways of getting to the predictions we have, and seldom is anyone correct all of the time anyway. I myself have been incorrect in many predictions. So if that is the model and theory you want to stick behind, no worries. 

yo33331 said:
curl-6 said:

You are completely free to bookmark excessively optimistic predictions of the Switch and bump them later when they turn out not to be true, or claims that lowball PS or Xbox.

Heck, if you notice my sig, I have a whole public bet going regarding what I see as a severely pessimistic prediction of PS5 and Xbox Series, on which I have even staked a month of profile pic control.

Also since you bookmarked it for the end of the year, okay, cool, however then we can see only one thing - the prediction of 20M. The prediction for 15 to 18M from last year is no more valid since one of the conditions I made that prediction isn't valid. (just pointing out)

Oh yeah, another question too. Why only my prediction is getting under the knive ? Why not bookmark and look at every prediction everyone made for this year in the thread about the 2022 predictions ? Why at end of the year all attetion will be here to one prediction ?

And also okay, why not bookmarking all of them too, why you only want to bookmark pesimistic switch prediction ? isn't fair if you bookmark some predictions to have all kinds of them

I haven't only singled out you, I have bookmarked claims by many users that I find to be highly unrealistic.

Pessimistic Switch predictions are just easy pickings as they've been a consistent source of off-base claims since the system came out, given the combination of its massive success and the immense desire of so many to see it fail.

Fair or unfair doesn't enter into it, I'm free to bookmark any I want, and so are you, and so is every user on this forum. Again, the highest profile one I have going at the moment is nothing to do with the Switch or you at all, but rather what I consider a lowball prediction of PS5/Xbox Series by Liquid Laser.