1. My LT predictions from last year were if this year shortages are fixed which would lower switch sales further (in my opinion)
2. I am not lowballing anythings, that's why I always give some range for the best and worst possible performance and no I don't have bad predictions. What is bad prediction really ? everyone can make whatever they prediction they want and think of and you can't tell them that is bad or no cuz it's their right.
3. I am not squirming I am explaining because you here can't understand right what has been my opinion and prediction and hang only for the lower number as curl-6 did too.
4. No highballing, my predictions as many other people (not only me why are you turning only to me about this ? ) were thinking that sony will take better care of PS4 which in turn would increase significantly the sales for the PS4 and if they go the extra mile (with doing PS2 like support) it could even get it to reach 150M. These are different scenarious and posibilities it's not highballing.
5. They are only ridicilous in your eyes, cuz maybe you are not understanding them all right.
6. Not true. I am not dismisiing the switch or any other console. In fact I have praise it couple of times when making post for it, for the good sales it has done and the level that will reach (in my opinion 3# of all time) You are wrong here. And have never dismiss it as a handheld. It is in fact probably the first Nintendo handheld console that I have interest in and have tried and liked!
7. This is wrong. Gameboy is such an example. Just have said before that most of the Nintendo consoles don't have good legs, and most of the Sony console have good legs (well this was before PS4, now it's really 50:50 with the sony consoles, since they worsen their track record with PS4)
8. What about cliff theory ?
I am not talking to my self there, I am updating the thread so it can go up when the numbers got updated. The same thing @PAOerfulone is doing, yet you are no mentioning anything about this for his thread but you are doing for mine. And then you tell me it's nothing personal ... okay. Think whatever you want.
1. It doesn't matter if the shortages persisted or didn't. Data shows that Switch sales don't decrease in any significant capacity during weeks that PS5/Series X sales increase. Therefore, shortages don't increase the Switch's sales significantly. This point is moot.
2. You are lowballing if you thought that the Switch would only sell 115M by 2022's end. Regardless of the reason why you thought this, it is still a lowball prediction. I mean, you basically suggested the Switch sales would be cut in half from 2021 to 2022. That's a lowball no matter how you slice it.
3. No comment
4. It's a bit telling that, with the Switch being 16M ahead of the PS4 in the same time period, you still have a tendency to think that the PS4 would have reached 150M where as the Switch would have reached only 130M. You suggest that Sony has greater longevity, which is true, but not to such a degree that they would make up a 36M deficit. Citing the PS2 as the reason for this thinking is citing an outlier, as no console since the PS2 has had the legs of the PS2.
5. No comment
6. You literally say "I've never dismissed it as a handheld" then proceed to call it a handheld in the exact same paragraph. I think it's the fact that you suggest the Switch is just a handheld is the dismissing he is referring to.
7. It was actually the PS3 and PSP which showed that the legs of Sony's consoles is not significantly better than their competitors. The 360 was on the market a year longer and always sold within 1-2M of PS3's total throughout it's life (even near the end). The DS launched the same year as the PSP and did have a MUCH larger drop off. However, the PSP's final year that VGChartz tracked was 2014 and the DS was 2013 which isn't significantly different, DS was replaced a year sooner (which could explain the year difference) AND DS was at a much higher saturation point so quicker drop-offs were much more likely. The PS Vita didn't perform well, so the PS4 really just confirmed that PS2-esque legs were uncommon phenomenon's like the Gameboy's 11 year lifespan. Sony's legs are longer...but not to the degree that you are using as your reasoning as evidenced by the above.
8. Suggesting that the Switch will go from 25M in 2021 to 13M in 2022 without even announcing a successor IS part of the cliff theory. The decline we are seeing is more like 25M - > 20-21M which is a much more natural progression downwards.Last edited by Doctor_MG - on 24 July 2022