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yo33331 said:

1. For me it does. And this was my condition, regardless of your opinion this was my condition back then. So the condition is not met therefore my prediction for 15 to 18M can't be named wrong or even right because the conditions are not met. And as I said for me it does. Some weeks can't prove nothing. I have worked in a videogames store till 2019 and have seen with my very own eyes how different people jump from one to the other console when they are making decisions to buy or not, how many of the customers take the switch as a option when looking to buy ps or xbox (or switch) and how every month we've had similar sales of hardware and despite this some months switch is selling more units other not so and this impacts PS and xbox sales and in the end the sum of all was around equal despite different percentages of sales for all three. The baloon PS+xbox+switch has limit and when the one is strong the other two has limited range of which they can go up in sales. Just like 6th 7th 8th gen PS+XBOX all move between ~170-180M range yes different gen PS and xbox have different numbers with different market margins. You can't prove me this with few weeks of sales. When new console release they need more time to hold in the market. And of course if it wasn't for xbox or PS Switch would again die sometime in future, but it would've made many more units. Put it like this if from 2017 till now there wasnt xbox or PS and only Switch I guarantee you Switch would have sold not 110M by now but at least 160-180M. Again not all 100% of ps and xbox sales would go to switch, but decent part of them would. The same goes true reverse for the PS and xbox as well. Just like when XBOX ONE wasn't selling great those sales from 360 went to PS4. Here is the same. But because Switch is not 100% hardcore powerful home console (like PS and xbox) and it is a hybrid and it is more casual it has a bunch of different audience and buyers as well. That's why I am saying it is impacting and not all of the sales would have been from other consoles. If PS4 and XB1 were in their peak years in 2019 2020 2021, Switch would now be around 80-90M at most. PS4 and XB1 hit their saturaion point and their dying years somewhere around 2018 and mostly 2019. Then the Switch begin to rise. Why ? because 1. natural lifetime peak of course, no doubt about this. but also 2. because pretty much every gamer who wanted PS4 or XB1 had it by that time and there was only one more new and interesting option in the market - Switch. This gave at least 20% more sales for the Switch. Now 2020 and 2021 PS5 and XBSX had shortages therefore only some of the people who wanted them could buy them, the other ones were left to wait or to buy the other console available - Switch. That's helped another ~20 or maybe 25-30% of switch sales of the last year - 2021 and also this year. That's why I've made 15 to 18M prediction last year, because I thought (wrongly obviously) that shortages would be gone by january 2022, however they weren't. If they were I think because of the bigger choice all gamers would have and the availability of the new consoles the Switch sales would have been around 20 to 30% weaker this year, therefore finishing in the 15-18M range.

4. Well when I made the prediction and the opinion of the PS4 sales it was 2019 I think or beginning of 2020 and then Switch was far far from PS4 and many many people other than me were on the same page about this that PS4 was going to 130-140M. And yes I still think if Sony made the right things for the PS4 when was the right time they could get it to those 130-140M. And I am saying maybe 150M not 100% sure. Look the details please. Also where I have said Switch to finish at 130M? I said it will finish at number 3 in my opinion. But if you want exact numbers fine. I think somewhere between 140M and 150M.

As for the PS2, okay I agree, it was outlier, however Sony did the right moves when they had to with PS2 this is also true. And that's why I haven't given PS4 158M reach but around 140 or if they would have pushed it at max and hit every right move I wouldn't rule out 150M as well. But I am not saying 100% sure 150M. (just a possibility) But still 150 is less than 158M.

6. Okay home console too. For me I would use Switch more as a handheld. But I know it can be used for home console as well. And what ?

7. PSP didn't have bad legs. Didn't had good either. Just normal medium legs. So it doesn't count to sony bad record. PS3 yes. but only one console wasn't enough. With seeing PS4 bad legs now I can agree that Sony is not only about long legs. And they don't care about this too. DS I haven't told that it had bad legs just it fell hard, and yes it was more understandable because of it's saturation as you are saying, but also some part of this is because of Nintendo themselves. They killed it prematurely in 2010 when announcing the 3DS, and then again in 2011 when they did a pricecut on the 3DS to almost the same price as the DS.

8. I have never ever suggested 13M. It was 15M. It was 15 to 18M range to be exact and point 1. I explained exactly why I think so. But as I said, and quoted my post from last year, with only 1 of the conditions met my prediction for this year was 20M. 15 to 18M was if shortages are present and price cut not present. Also I have never said last year If I think for 2022 it won't have a successor, how do you know ? I may have though it was going to be successor this year which would also impact the sales of the switch ? Why are you sure ?

1. It doesn't matter if it's "for you", because we have objective measurements that show this thought is probably false. Refusing to update the model by which you predict sales after new information comes in which provides evidence to the inverse simply means that you will have a lot of false predictions in the future. Suggesting that they need more time on the market is ridiculous because more time on the market means that Switch will naturally be declining anyway, so it won't show anything to you. If you look at VGChartz graphs you will find that any week there is an increase in shipments there is not a significant decrease for Switch units. That right there provides evidence that Switch sales are independent of PS5 and Series X. This is further indicated through numerous reports which suggest that most Switch owners also own a PS or Xbox console and not used as a replacement. Your also making definitive statements without a lot of data to back it up. I mean, 360 + PS3 + Wii sales were way larger than PS4 + X1 sales ever were...yet the DS still outsold all of them. The Switch is just a different type of system than the PS5 and XSX, it's attracting an audience in a different way. There is not sufficient evidence that suggests Switch sales are significantly tied to the other two consoles. All there is is coincidental implications based on Switch doing so well while the other two consoles were fading out, but week by week evidence doesn't show any type of relationship. Heck, there were multiple months in 2021 where the PS5 and Series X actually sold more combined than they have this year, yet Switch sales in 2021 are still higher than this year, meaning that decreased availability for PS5/Series X this year did not give Switch a boost as you claim it should. I mean, I would be happy to agree to a suggestion that there is a potential change in percentage...maybe a couple millions over the last two years. But your suggestion of a 25-30% increase is just way too much. You really think that the Switch would have been down to 17M-18M units in 2021 and now down to 11-13M for 2022's total SOLELY because of stock issues for the other consoles? No...that's a cliff.

4. This was taken from August of 2021 in this thread "However if they wait till 2024 switch may reach 125-130M total lifetime, which is still impressive however far far away from the #2 or #1 selling console.". In this same month the Switch was 11.7M units ahead of the PS4 in the same timeframe. So, again, suggesting the PS4 would be 150M potential but Switch would have been 130M (and maybe even just 125) is an EXTREMELY lowball prediction. PS4 was already showing signs of significant slowdown in 2019. I agree that PS4 sales would be greater than they are right now if they did make more of them, but not 25-35M greater. The slowdown was too significant from 2018 to 2019 and 2019 to 2020. 

7. Exactly. PSP and PS3 didn't have bad legs, but they were nowhere near the PS2 and PS4 confirmed the PS2 was an outlier. Sony's legs are still often better than Nintendo, but it's not as significant as it was in the past. 

8. The August 2021 post you made said by the end of 2022 they would be at 115 when you already identified by the end of 2021 they would be at 100-102M. That's 13M-15M (meaning 15M is your high). That's an EXTREMELY lowball prediction when the year you made that prediction the Switch sold almost 25M.