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Forums - Sales Discussion - Famitsu Sales: Week 29, 2022 (Jul 11 - Jul 17)

Oh no, the “if man” talking about his predictions again? Just wait and see at the end of the year.

Calling other users for repeating themselves, is a little hypocritical you know, especially when you have been (wrongly) repeating yourself for quite some time now.



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yo33331 said:
peachbuggy said:

Another funny "Prediction" from July 2021. Ya know, it's funny how you talk with such authority, like it's a certainty your predictions will come true, when it's clear they don't. An "imo" would be so much better. There are many other wrong "predictions" from you i could find. Now it's been proven there's no logic to your predictions, i put it to you they are based on wishful thinking and also that you are, indeed a Quickrick alt!

I've already answered about all of this 3 months ago.

https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/245129/global-hardware-august-8-14-ps5-and-switch-sales-rise/2/

Go and read my posts here. I am not repeating my self again.

But with a few words. My prediction was what you quoted yes. However my prediction was based on the case that PS5 and XBSX will fixed their shortages fully by the start of 2022 (which they don't) and because of this Switch will loose some sales. Now you may say that they don't impact each other. I say that they do. Anyway this is another topic. However because of this I made my prediction. Of cource that now as the shortages are still present for the PS5 and XBSX Switch hasn't decreased so much.

Oh and also my prediction was between the 15 to 18M range. not exact 15M.

Which won't be too far from what Switch will finish this year, and if it wasn't for the shortages I am sure it would finish even below 18M as PS5 and XBSX would rise more.

Also it is obvious that when you make predictions it's your opinion. No one can tell with certainty what will happen and how the thing are going to play out.

So of cource those predictions that I am giving are my opinions. As have to be every other person's prediction as well. And no it's been proven nothing. Everyone can have opinions and predictions. There is no need to prove anything. My predictions are based on the situations I think will happen. As it have to be with every other person. Because no one can say if there will be price cut for example, or shortages, or when exactly next gen switch will come or even the pandemic if you want. Quickrick is troll I am not! Don't compare me, You just don't like me that's all. And that's why you show more personal side than with someone other.

And also I don't know why you even interfere ? The argument here was between me and curl-6 and it was about the 6th and 3rd year, not about my other prediction. If we will say who's prediction is wrond or right than you have to name almost everyone here since everyone has answered in the threads about predicitions for every year and many of the people have been wrong. I was wrong about 1 thing. The shortages. If they fixed than my prediction about switch sales would be right and on point 15-18M. However the shortages are present and even last year I said it in one of the posts that if the shortages are still present than I can see the switch reaching a max of 20M. Go and find it and read it.

The precedent is on you to find it. Also, quote what you like. The truth is, every time it becomes apparent your predictions are proving to be wrong, you move the goalposts. If i could be bothered i could find many of your wrong predictions, like the Switch falling regularly to 150k per week WW sales.

If you want me to engage about your previous point then fine. Imo the switch will comfortably outsell Jp 2019 total in 2022. All my other points were to prove you act like you know what you are talking about when you clearly don't. Also, don't try and pretend you originally predicted 15-18m for Switch in 2022. It clearly says 15m in my post quoted from you, for all to see. You are not gonna get away with your goalpost moving this time and no it's not personal.



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In my opinion the N64 was not just the best console of the 5th gen but, to this day the best console ever created!

yo33331 said:
peachbuggy said:

The precedent is on you to find it. Also, quote what you like. The truth is, every time it becomes apparent your predictions are proving to be wrong, you move the goalposts. If i could be bothered i could find many of your wrong predictions, like the Switch falling regularly to 150k per week WW sales.

If you want me to engage about your previous point then fine. Imo the switch will comfortably outsell Jp 2019 total in 2022. All my other points were to prove you act like you know what you are talking about when you clearly don't. Also, don't try and pretend you originally predicted 15-18m for Switch in 2022. It clearly says 15m in my post quoted from you, for all to see. You are not gonna get away with your goalpost moving this time and no it's not personal.

This

yo33331 said:

I can't write down every single time on every single of my posts that everything is my opinion and that every time I am saying the range of 15-18M (last year) or now 4M-4.5M. It is understand by default that I mean the prediction that I am making, the range from the 15 to 18M (when I've sometimes said 15M and not added " to 18m" or the 4M when I've not added " to 4.5M) So don't hang only on the lowest numbers that I've said and argue about it. I've always said ranges between something and something and making exact prediction by the decimals. And if you don't believe me or something go back to the august thread of last summer and read every single of my posts there to see exactly what I have written not only quoting one post here where. The range I have has been always 15 to 18M (without pricecuts and the shortages fixed for PS5 and XBSX) therefore I can't be named wrong about this because the shortages are not fixed. I can only be wrong if Switch exceeds 20M (with pricecut not happening till end of the year)

" The truth is, every time it becomes apparent your predictions are proving to be wrong, you move the goalposts "

No, I made the range 15 to 18M last year when beginning this argument and made my prediction. I've not added "to 18M" afterwards.

The same is true here with the 4 to 4.5M for japan this year.

My prediction about switch falling to 150 weekly can't be named wrong or right since this prediction was made only if the shortages for this year are present and there is no price cuts. However the shortages are present.

And I am not trying to get away from anything. If I was I would never answer for example. Instead I am telling you what is the truth. As you can see I am not running from a fight.

The only thing that can be said wrong on right (because of the situation that shortages are still here) is if Switch will make 20M or no this year as I have said last year in the case shortages don't go away.

You've literally quoted me with something on the exact same post i've already seen because it's literally on the same page! How is this moving the conversation on?

To help this go back on topic i say and you can quote me on this that 2022 Switch sales will be at least 200k higher than 2019 in Jp. Nice and easy for you. If you disagree and think 2019 will beat 2022 then i'm happy to do an avatar control bet with you. However, i'm not giving you an easy option. The bet is literally 2019 v. 2022.

I note that 2019 had a mighty week 46-year end, however, vs. 2022 it likely to be looking at making up a 500k+ deficit.



DON'T WIN ME CHIBI BUDDY DON'T WIN ME.

ANIMAL CROSSING NEW LEAF FRIEND CODE:- 5129 1175 1029. MESSAGE ME.
ANDY MURRAY:- GRAND SLAM WINNER!

In my opinion the N64 was not just the best console of the 5th gen but, to this day the best console ever created!

yo33331 said:
peachbuggy said:

The precedent is on you to find it. Also, quote what you like. The truth is, every time it becomes apparent your predictions are proving to be wrong, you move the goalposts. If i could be bothered i could find many of your wrong predictions, like the Switch falling regularly to 150k per week WW sales.

If you want me to engage about your previous point then fine. Imo the switch will comfortably outsell Jp 2019 total in 2022. All my other points were to prove you act like you know what you are talking about when you clearly don't. Also, don't try and pretend you originally predicted 15-18m for Switch in 2022. It clearly says 15m in my post quoted from you, for all to see. You are not gonna get away with your goalpost moving this time and no it's not personal.

This

yo33331 said:

I can't write down every single time on every single of my posts that everything is my opinion and that every time I am saying the range of 15-18M (last year) or now 4M-4.5M. It is understand by default that I mean the prediction that I am making, the range from the 15 to 18M (when I've sometimes said 15M and not added " to 18m" or the 4M when I've not added " to 4.5M) So don't hang only on the lowest numbers that I've said and argue about it. I've always said ranges between something and something and not making exact prediction by the decimals. And if you don't believe me or something go back to the august thread of last summer and read every single of my posts there to see exactly what I have written not only quoting one post here where. The range I have has been always 15 to 18M (without pricecuts and the shortages fixed for PS5 and XBSX) therefore I can't be named wrong about this because the shortages are not fixed. I can only be wrong if Switch exceeds 20M (with pricecut not happening till end of the year)

" The truth is, every time it becomes apparent your predictions are proving to be wrong, you move the goalposts "

No, I made the range 15 to 18M last year when beginning this argument and made my prediction. I've not added "to 18M" afterwards.

The same is true here with the 4 to 4.5M for japan this year.

My prediction about switch falling to 150 weekly can't be named wrong or right since this prediction was made only if the shortages for this year are present and there is no price cuts. However the shortages are present. And even for this I said "maybe" where you see statement here ? with the word " maybe " ? The certain thing I have said was 200k weekly, and now I am also truly believing that if the shortages were fixed by end of 2021 Switch would have fallen to 200k weekly now.

And I am not trying to get away from anything. If I was I would never answer for example. Instead I am telling you what is the truth. As you can see I am not running from a fight.

The only thing that can be said wrong or right (because of the situation that shortages are still here) is if Switch will make 20M or no this year as I have said last year in the case shortages don't go away.

Also my predictions weren't so many that you talked of.

They were

1. With the PS4 making more than what reached (because I like many though Sony will take better care of it) and reach 130-140M or even more if they do the right things.

2. Switch 2021 prediction of 25M which I was pretty on point (Why are you not talking about this eh ? and saying I have only wrong predictions what about the right ones like this ? )

3. Switch 2022 making 15 to 18M (if pricecut not happen and shortages are fixed by 2021 end) with 20M either one of this things happening or 25M with both happening

Now is my 4 one about the japanese sales of 4 to 4.5M this year.

So my wrong prediction is only 1 till now - the PS4 one (and honestly many many other people also got it wrong because no one would though there will be so big of a cliff for it)

Number 2 is right what you will say about it ?

Number 3 the valid scenario from this prediction is the middle one, since the shortages are present the prediction was to reach 20M at best. And if it pass 20M than okay I will come out and say I was wrong. not a problem.

Number 4 We will wait and see.

No I am not. The cliff is that the next year will be 15M for the year. 

Clearly stated here, by you. No mention of 18m. You clearly move the goalposts. It's plain and simple for everyone here to see. I don't know how you can even try to deny it tbh.

Also 15-25m for the Switch WW for 2022? Nice way to cover yourself! That's not a prediction, that's just about an "every base covered" copout!



DON'T WIN ME CHIBI BUDDY DON'T WIN ME.

ANIMAL CROSSING NEW LEAF FRIEND CODE:- 5129 1175 1029. MESSAGE ME.
ANDY MURRAY:- GRAND SLAM WINNER!

In my opinion the N64 was not just the best console of the 5th gen but, to this day the best console ever created!

yo33331 said:
peachbuggy said:

You've literally quoted me with something on the exact same post i've already seen because it's literally on the same page! How is this moving the conversation on?

To help this go back on topic i say and you can quote me on this that 2022 Switch sales will be at least 200k higher than 2019 in Jp. Nice and easy for you. If you disagree and think 2019 will beat 2022 then i'm happy to do an avatar control bet with you. However, i'm not giving you an easy option. The bet is literally 2019 v. 2022.

I note that 2019 had a mighty week 46-year end, however, vs. 2022 it likely to be looking at making up a 500k+ deficit.

I've now added some things to my post that you just qouted, go and see, it's about my predictions in general.

As for you prediction, okay, fine. Everyone is free to give whatever they predictions they want or think of.

I don't think 2022 will make more than 4.5M in japan. My prediction for this year in japan is anything between 4 and 4.5M

I am not saying 2019 will beat 2022. I am saying that 2022 can finish equally to 2019 ~ 4.5M or lower.

Now you are trying to get me saying that 2019 will be better 100%. I am not saying that. (2022 can finish weaker than 2019 but it can also be equal to 2019)

But in my opinion it won't be stronger than 2019 when all is finished and done.

I am just quoting curl-6 that by year's end 2022 won't be 50% ahead and that 2022 won't finish better than 2019. (I am not sure if some hundreds of units have to count or not for example if it finishes 4510 or something like that)

But yeah your 200k higher prediction is enough of a gap. I think 2022 won't reach this 4.7M you are giving.

18m at the highest, hmmm I think that is a little too low. Even Nintendo is predicting a 21m this fiscal year and companies typically lowball to make it look like they're succeeding more towards investors. Obviously we probs aren't talking about fiscal years so it could slightly be different, but concerning Japan I don't think it would be lower than 2019. You talked about the decline of sales, and I agree. 6th year already, global economic recession, weak yen, etc. But Splatoon and Pokemon are extremely popular compared to like Metroid in Japan. There's just no way they will flop especially since it's for kids, EVEN if the game sucks, they wouldn't care like us core gamers. 



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yo33331 said:
Kakadu18 said:

115mil at the end of 2022? The 100-102mil at the end of 2021 was quite close to the actual result but this end of 2022 prediction was anything but realistic.
That drop off would be similar to the drop that the DS had when the 3DS released. Expecting that not only without a new console actually launching but also with a new model launching is quite frankly ridiculous.
That's like expecting the holiday season to be the weakest of the year.

Yes. This was if 2021 finished with 100M and 2022 did 15M (the low side of my prediction last year with 18M being the high side but only if the conditions were met - price cut not present and shortages of PS5 and XBSX fixed - cuz I think this plays a role of the Switch sales as well.) Now with the shortages still in full power my prediction for this year is 18 to 20m which with the 102M by 2021 end is finishing aroudn 120-122M with this year end.

Unless there are some massive downward adjustments from VGC for Switch sales, ~123m is likely for the system by December 31st:

~109.5m at the end of June + 3.5m (minimum) for Q2 + ~10m for Q3 = 123m by year's end.  My prediction for Nintendo's financials ending Dec 31st is ~125m shipped.



yo33331 said:
peachbuggy said:

No I am not. The cliff is that the next year will be 15M for the year. 

Clearly stated here, by you. No mention of 18m. You clearly move the goalposts. It's plain and simple for everyone here to see. I don't know how you can even try to deny it tbh.

Also 15-25m for the Switch WW for 2022? Nice way to cover yourself! That's not a prediction, that's just about an "every base covered" copout!

IF SHORTAGES AND PRICECUT ARE PRESENT! is this means anything to you ? or not ? clearly no.

I have just given different scenarios that can happen and that will impact sales. I am not covering anything. I 've clearly said that only if there is price cut and only if the shortages are fixed with both things happening switch can reach 25M and if only of the things is there than 20M this is my prediction and has been my prediction. I am not covering anything. And the range that given console may do depending on different situations happening or not can be with 10M range with numbers that Switch made 2020 and 2021 - 28 and 25M. When the numbers become bigger it's becoming more and more difficult to predict something with exact numbers. But yeah, everyone is free to have opinion whatever he likes and thinks, and mine was and still is that with both of this conditions met Switch could reach 25M, with only on of the met around 20M or without both - 15 to 18M.

Whether I would say back then 15 or 15 to 18 or 18M it's still a cliff, 25M to 18 it is still a cliff. But yeah, if shortages hit I could see Switch going as low as 15M this year. Sadly the situation is different and you can't see that in this situation my prediction would've been right. And now with the one condition met - 20M it will be right again.

How it is every base covered if those conditions have been met and Switch was doing 20M again eh ? What I would say then eh ?

How is this every base covered when I am saying infront of all here that if Switch beats 20M this year I will come out and say that I've been wrong and my prediction been wrong eh ?

Isn't easier for me If I wanted to cover every base or run from something just to not answer any post eh ?

Also if you had a problem with 10M range prediction why don't you come out back then and say it but are coming now ?

I can make 50M range prediction if I want. I am giving specific situation and scenarios with exact number ranges (of about 2-3M) for every single one of them. So what is your problem?

And you know what ? I will continue! I won't stop. I will continue to make new and new predicitions about every thing that I want and I like and don't like.

Whether you or someone agree or not I don't care. I will make predictions and opinions and won't stop!

In fact here is another one for 2023:

I am predicting about next year that Switch sales will fall to between 12 and 16M with exact conditions:

if switch successor isn't announced and price cut happen I can see it reach number around 16M for the year.

if switch successor isn't announced and price cut not happen I can see it reach number around 14M for the year.

if switch successor is announced and price cut happen 14M

if switch successor is announced and price cut not happen 12M

Quote me on this, tag me whatever you want. If I am wrong I will come out and say, not a problem.

Another one that I did and will repeat here is Switch's japan sales for next year - around 3M

Also just to clarify I use the word around this means equal or very close to (since no one can give exact number up to the decimals) so when I say around 3M this means 200k -/+ from 3M is also valid so 2.8 or 3.2 again don't make me wrong. for the around 16M or around 14M means again that it can be about 200-300k -/+ below or above as well.

Your prediction spans 10m, or possibly 50% of total sales for the period. You are a genius!  :D :D :D



DON'T WIN ME CHIBI BUDDY DON'T WIN ME.

ANIMAL CROSSING NEW LEAF FRIEND CODE:- 5129 1175 1029. MESSAGE ME.
ANDY MURRAY:- GRAND SLAM WINNER!

In my opinion the N64 was not just the best console of the 5th gen but, to this day the best console ever created!

yo33331 said:
peachbuggy said:

No I am not. The cliff is that the next year will be 15M for the year. 

Clearly stated here, by you. No mention of 18m. You clearly move the goalposts. It's plain and simple for everyone here to see. I don't know how you can even try to deny it tbh.

Also 15-25m for the Switch WW for 2022? Nice way to cover yourself! That's not a prediction, that's just about an "every base covered" copout!

IF SHORTAGES AND PRICECUT ARE PRESENT! is this means anything to you ? or not ? clearly no.

I have just given different scenarios that can happen and that will impact sales. I am not covering anything. I 've clearly said that only if there is price cut and only if the shortages are fixed with both things happening switch can reach 25M and if only of the things is there than 20M this is my prediction and has been my prediction. I am not covering anything. And the range that given console may do depending on different situations happening or not can be with 10M range with numbers that Switch made 2020 and 2021 - 28 and 25M. When the numbers become bigger it's becoming more and more difficult to predict something with exact numbers. But yeah, everyone is free to have opinion whatever he likes and thinks, and mine was and still is that with both of this conditions met Switch could reach 25M, with only on of the met around 20M or without both - 15 to 18M.

Whether I would say back then 15 or 15 to 18 or 18M it's still a cliff, 25M to 18 it is still a cliff. But yeah, if shortages hit I could see Switch going as low as 15M this year. Sadly the situation is different and you can't see that in this situation my prediction would've been right. And now with the one condition met - 20M it will be right again.

How it is every base covered if those conditions have been met and Switch was doing 20M again eh ? What I would say then eh ?

How is this every base covered when I am saying infront of all here that if Switch beats 20M this year I will come out and say that I've been wrong and my prediction been wrong eh ?

Isn't easier for me If I wanted to cover every base or run from something just to not answer any post eh ?

Also if you had a problem with 10M range prediction why don't you come out back then and say it but are coming now ?

I can make 50M range prediction if I want. I am giving specific situation and scenarios with exact number ranges (of about 2-3M) for every single one of them. So what is your problem?

And you know what ? I will continue! I won't stop. I will continue to make new and new predicitions about every thing that I want and I like and don't like.

Whether you or someone agree or not I don't care. I will make predictions and opinions and won't stop!

In fact here is another one for 2023:

I am predicting about next year that Switch sales will fall to between 12 and 16M with exact conditions:

if switch successor isn't announced and price cut happen I can see it reach number around 16M for the year.

if switch successor isn't announced and price cut not happen I can see it reach number around 14M for the year.

if switch successor is announced and price cut happen 14M

if switch successor is announced and price cut not happen 12M

Quote me on this, tag me whatever you want. If I am wrong I will come out and say, not a problem.

Another one that I did and will repeat here is Switch's japan sales for next year - around 3M

Also just to clarify I use the word around this means equal or very close to (since no one can give exact number up to the decimals) so when I say around 3M this means 200k -/+ from 3M is also valid so 2.8 or 3.2 again don't make me wrong. for the around 16M or around 14M means again that it can be about 200-300k -/+ below or above as well.

Your predictions for next year seem fairly reasonable, maybe you are learning.

However that doesn't excuse you from:-

1. Your poor earlier predictions for the Switch. Wasn't it originally 120m LT from last year??

2. Frequent lowballing of Switch predictions, then later making caveats to squirm out of said bad predictions.

3. Aforementioned squirming.

4. Highballing PS predictions

5. Having ridiculous "What if" ranges + the denials/goalpost moving

6. If Switch is doing better than your home console of choice, then dismiss it as a handheld.

7. Believing only PS consoles can have legs.

8. The cliff theory.

 Your bias clearly shows, yet you run a sales thread. Ever wonder why you talk just to yourself on there sometimes? All the reasons above lead me to believe you are a Quickrick alt.



DON'T WIN ME CHIBI BUDDY DON'T WIN ME.

ANIMAL CROSSING NEW LEAF FRIEND CODE:- 5129 1175 1029. MESSAGE ME.
ANDY MURRAY:- GRAND SLAM WINNER!

In my opinion the N64 was not just the best console of the 5th gen but, to this day the best console ever created!

    At the same period PS4 had already replaced PS3, releasing also 3 months later than PS5, and PlayStation was present at around half places of top 30.

    Famitsu Sales: Week 29, 2015 (Jul 13 - Jul 19)
    3DS - 13
    PS4 - 8
    PSV - 5
    WIU - 4

    Famitsu Sales: Week 29, 2022 (Jul 11 - Jul 17)
    NSW - 30


    ~4.5m seems reasonable to me for year end for Switch. Obviously it won't be able to keep up with 2019 sales after Lite launch but this year currently has a 750k advantage over the 2019 year.

    4-4.5m was a great prediction earlier in the year, even now I think it's still slightly more likely to fall below 4.5m than go over... but at this point for it to go as low as 4m seems highly unlikely. The weeks left to come are 30-52, looks like the lowest sales for that period were ~2170k in 2018. The Switch is in decline from it's peak now but it's not going to sell as low as 1.6m in that same period unless there are massive supply shortages again, it would have to average less than 40k per week until the holidays.