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Forums - Sales Discussion - Famitsu Sales: Week 29, 2022 (Jul 11 - Jul 17)

yo33331 said:
curl-6 said:

Time will tell; I'll make a note of your 4m claim and we'll just have to wait and see.

My exact claim is 4M to 4.5M

4M on the low side, 4.5M on the high side.

Your initial claim was 4m, you added the 4.5 amendment later, after I pointed out 4m might be an underestimate. Given that you now want to adjust it upwards, we seem to agree 4m was a likely low ball.



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023. (And over 130 million lifetime)

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curl-6 said:

Your initial claim was 4m, you added the 4.5 amendment later, after I pointed out 4m might be an underestimate. Given that you now want to adjust it upwards, we seem to agree 4m was a likely low ball.

No, my initial claim was never exact 4M. it was around 4M to 4.5M.

Check my older posts from some weeks ago in the japan weekly threads if you want. For this year when I've made claims I've given 4M to 4.5M everytime. Go check. Here is the same. And no I am not agreeing 4M is low ball. 4M is very possible if the decline continues till october and if Switch reach weeks of 40k and the holidays weeks are noticeably weaker than 2021. 4.5M is my highest bet where Switch can end this year in japan.

So my exact claim is not exact number. No one can tell and know exact number. My claim is 4M to 4.5M where both are possible and also something between them like 4.2M or 4.3M is also possible.

Also my original claim was not exact number but that it's 6th year won't be stronger than it's 3rd year. (they will be either equal or 6th year finish little short of it's 3rd year) So it won't be more than 4.5M. But yeah if you want exact numbers I am giving you the 4M to 4.5M range.

Last edited by yo33331 - on 22 July 2022

yo33331 said:
curl-6 said:

Your initial claim was 4m, you added the 4.5 amendment later, after I pointed out 4m might be an underestimate. Given that you now want to adjust it upwards, we seem to agree 4m was a likely low ball.

No, my initial claim was never exact 4M. it was around 4M to 4.5M.

Check my older posts from some weeks ago in the japan weekly threads if you want. For this year when I've made claims I've given 4M to 4.5M everytime. Go check. Here is the same. And no I am not agreeing 4M is low ball. 4M is very possible if the decline continues till october and if Switch reach weeks of 40k and the holidays weeks are noticeably weaker than 2021. 4.5M is my highest bet where Switch can end this year in japan.

So my exact claim is not exact number. No one can tell and know exact number. My claim is 4M to 4.5M where both are possible and also something between them like 4.2M or 4.3M is also possible.

You said you expect 4m. 4.5m would technically be above 2019.

But again, we'll just have to wait and see.



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023. (And over 130 million lifetime)

yo33331 said:

Calm down.

2019 got way stronger from september onwards and had almost equal to 2021 last 4 months worldwide and second best in japan after only 2020.

3rd or 6th year doesn't really matter, there are many anomalies with so much different consoles and sales paths or particular years between them.

2022 will finish around 2019 total in the 18-20M range, and next year will most likely be lower than 2018' 16.4M.

The same goes true for the japan sales as well. Around 4-4.5M this year, and probably 3M next year.

curl-6 said:

You said you expect 4m. 4.5m would technically be above 2019.

But again, we'll just have to wait and see.

Here is my first post in this thread. Where you see giving 4M ? I am clearly saying 4-4.5M. Go back and scroll up and read every one of my posts.

I've never said just 4M. And no 4.5M is not technically above 2019. 2019 is 4494k which is 4.5m So equal. (some hundreds k doesn't matter, my claim is that won't be more than 2019 or than 4.5M. 4494 is the same as 4.5M. You get the point. I am talking about same level of sales, of course it may go some hundreds units more or less. but generally speaking 4494 is 4.5M. My claim is it wont go more than 4.5

Yes we will wait and see. But my exact claim as I quoted my first post in this thread is 4 to 4.5M. Which is below or at very best equal to 2019 - 4.5M (4494)

Last edited by yo33331 - on 22 July 2022

I saw you predicted 4-4.5m, what I meant was that within that range you said you expected 4m:

Famitsu Sales: Week 29, 2022 (Jul 11 - Jul 17) (vgchartz.com)

yo33331 said:

This year the pace it's going till now with the decline it has and with how strong 2019 become in september onwards I expect Switch to make 4M.

Anyway, we'll know in 6 month, we'll just have to wait and see.



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023. (And over 130 million lifetime)

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curl-6 said:

I saw you predicted 4-4.5m, what I meant was that within that range you said you expected 4m:

Famitsu Sales: Week 29, 2022 (Jul 11 - Jul 17) (vgchartz.com)

yo33331 said:

This year the pace it's going till now with the decline it has and with how strong 2019 become in september onwards I expect Switch to make 4M.

Anyway, we'll know in 6 month, we'll just have to wait and see.

Yes. Between both options, with the decline it has I personally would bet on the lower side. But nothing is sure 100% and no one can know.

That's why I've said in every post about japan sales of the switch I am giving it the range of 4 to 4.5M as a possibility. I am not excluding the possibility of Switch reaching to 4.5M. It depends on the path it will continue to do. Will it continue to decrease to let's say 50 or 40k weekly and how exactly strong will be the holiday weeks. (closer to 2021, or decently weaker)

Either way I doubt it's 6th year will be stronger than it's 3rd year. That was my original claim. And also those 50% will diminish.

Last edited by yo33331 - on 22 July 2022

yo33331 said:
curl-6 said:

Switch tracking nearly 50% ahead of 2019, it's 3rd year, in its 6th year.

Calm down.

2019 got way stronger from september onwards and had almost equal to 2021 last 4 months worldwide and second best in japan after only 2020.

3rd or 6th year doesn't really matter, there are many anomalies with so much different consoles and sales paths or particular years between them.

2022 will finish around 2019 total in the 18-20M range, and next year will most likely be lower than 2018' 16.4M.

The same goes true for the japan sales as well. Around 4-4.5M this year, and probably 3M next year.

I hope so. Then the Switch will only be 1 million away from outselling the DS in Japan and become the best selling console in the country.



yo33331 said:
curl-6 said:

The last time I pointed this out it was in global sales, this week I simply noticed and pointed out the percentage to which it was tracking in Japan as of today's numbers. It was an update.

I actually do have some memory problems, so if I repeat myself it's not intentional.

As for your claim the 6th year will finish behind its third, are you referring to in Japan, globally, or both? Cos as far as Japan goes, the subject of this thread, it is currently in the lead by nearly 800k (2.41 million vs 1.66 million) and barring some new factor we don't know about yet, it seems unlikely it will lose all of that in the next 5 months that include both Splatoon 3 and Pokémon Scarlet/Violet.

About the repeating, I notice you are writing it down around every second week or so, on the weekly threads. There is just no need. This is valid and will be valid till september and everyone is seeing it and knows it. It's in that way since the beginning of the year. The holidays is where it will be interesting to watch.

I am saying that in the end it's 6th year won't be bigger, not that it will be weaker than it's 3rd. They will be almost equal (1M or so difference don't really make the one better than the other cuz the difference would be too small.) They will be about equal. And I am talking worldwide. In Japan it will even probably be weaker, cuz 2019 was 4.5M. This year the pace it's going till now with the decline it has and with how strong 2019 become in september onwards I expect Switch to make 4M. At the very best it could reach 4.5M but even then it's 6th year won't be better than it's 3rd. They will be equal. The software at this point in Switch life won't really make difference. If you put this 800k lead with the 2019 total you are telling me that this year will finish almost equal to last year 5.5M ? not gonna happen. It will be signifantly lower than that, as it is now. Why aren't you talking about the 800k deficit it has to 2021 ? Why are you adding those 800k to 2019 numbers but not taking out those 800k from 2021 numbers ? Why only taking the bright side but not the other one ? With how Switch has declined and how the switch got way stronger in 2019 it's way more likely it will finish around 2019 numbers or even lower in the end, than it is to finish close to 2021 numbers.

And the one Splatoon or pokemon won't make the difference. The OLED model last year when Switch had smaller install base didn't make significant boost and now the splatoon or pokemon will ? really ? I doubt it. The best they can do will be to boost 1 or 2 weeks and that's it. But even this I am not sure of cuz 110M is serious number and it's in the saturation point where software can't make a lot of difference for the console sales.

I give you an example. 2021 was also ahead of 2020 WW sales. (and even japan) But at halfpoint 2020 took the lead and made more than 3M more sales in the end. The 2021 lead for little over half a year which isn't small. The same is now happening with 2019 vs 2022. Both worldwide and japan. Only that in japan the possibility of 2019 beating 2022 is bigger. Worldwide as I said will probably be equal or with insignificant difference.

peachbuggy said

You talk as if you know what you're talking about, yet you don't. Last summer you claimed that Switch WW would fall to Xbox series level sales very soon. How did that work out?

The Switch is way clear of 2019 atm and the gap is likely to get bigger! Also, Splatoon 3 and pokemon are coming this year. I would suggest your prediction is based more off wishful thinking than any real logic.

I am not sure I understand you correctly. I never ever said that or compare the Switch to Xbox sales !?

As for the 2019 yes, as I said it's currently ahead because first half of this year is stronger than the weak first half of 2019. But coming september the thing will turn around and they will finish around the same in the end (worldwide) and possibly even behind the 4.5M number for japan. Splatoon and Pokemon coming, okay but the Switch is in point in it's life where saturation hit's and at this number - 110M the software will hardly move any unit's (maybe small boost) but not anything big. We saw last year even the OLED model didn't have any significant boost on the sales (where Switch was with way smaller lifetime sales at that time)

And no my prediction is on based of wishful thinking, it's pure logic. The switch is declining. In japan and worldwide. It's normal to end weaker than last year.

It's almost 3M behind 2021 WW in this point in time and It's decently behind in japan as well. It will finish 18-20M worlwide (around 2019 numbers) and around 4M to 4.5M at very best in Japan.

And also .. you are moving the subject. My post was about repeating every other week that Switch is almost 50% ahead of 2019. We know that. Everyone sees that. There is no need of reminding everyone every two weeks or so. (And as I said that won't be valid after september)

No I am not. The cliff is that the next year will be 15M for the year. It is a cliff from 25M this year.

Also I stated that will do 250k weekly in the beginning of the year, but going further will fall to probably 200k and maybe 150k in the summer.

It can't go from 300k to 150k suddenly .. Heck even the PS4 with the big cliff it didn't went from 250k to 80k suddenly .. It went doing 200k and almost 200k in 2019 to doing 150-180k in 2020, to doing 100k before the holidays, to making 80-50k for the first half of this year .. so it's again gradually and it's again accounted for a cliff. 

This is 1 of your famous "Predictions" from last August, very soon to be proven hilariously wrong.

So it is more like 50/50 if it will reach #3 by end of this year.

And together with the expected switch decline for the next year, switch may do something like 15M next year, so it's not also sure 100% if it will pass PS4 by end of 2022 (which should be around 117M-118M by this time)

Also with the disappointing OLED model revealed, as anyone was waiting for the Switch Pro, now surely the sales won't pick up, as they would if there was real Pro model. One more reason why Switch will probably not make more than 25M this year. And also one more reason why Nintendo may launch the successor sooner than expected.

So basically you are showing one good way the sales for the system can happen, I will show one other not so good way (but pretty realistic one).

by end of 2021 - 100/102M

by end of 2022 - 115M

After this it is too difficult to predict, cuz they may launch successor after which point switch will just fall of a cliff. just like pretty much every console did in the last few generations, and switch will make no more than 10M total after the successor launch. (and as there are rumors that this Pro model now will become Switch 2 there is a good chance they will not wait much, more like 2023 launch)

However if they wait till 2024 switch may reach 125-130M total lifetime, which is still impressive however far far away from the #2 or #1 selling console.

And I will just give an example for every optimist here, with the PS4, they are different consoles obviously, and they have different lifecycle however I am giving an example how the PS4 in 2018 was doing 250-300K per week and no one would believe that in 2 years will have these big drops in sales to 8M in 2020 and to 2M(still questionable) this year. Just like the PS4 death was probably the biggest and the worst death out of all consoles, till now this can happen with every other console too (if the manufacturer don't make the right steps). So just never say never, because everything is possible. Even the haters and no sayers in 2018 were saying a little better numbers for the PS4 ahead than they are now.

If Nintendo launch the successor in 2023 Switch will not pass 130M lifetime.

Another funny "Prediction" from July 2021. Ya know, it's funny how you talk with such authority, like it's a certainty your predictions will come true, when it's clear they don't. An "imo" would be so much better. There are many other wrong "predictions" from you i could find. Now it's been proven there's no logic to your predictions, i put it to you they are based on wishful thinking and also that you are, indeed a Quickrick alt!


DON'T WIN ME CHIBI BUDDY DON'T WIN ME.

ANIMAL CROSSING NEW LEAF FRIEND CODE:- 5129 1175 1029. MESSAGE ME.
ANDY MURRAY:- GRAND SLAM WINNER!

In my opinion the N64 was not just the best console of the 5th gen but, to this day the best console ever created!

Oh oooh ... We've gone back to this argument, haven't we ... Oh well, time will be the bearer of news once we get there, in the meantime it is known that the Switch will have an healthy amount of big software pieces to support a good holiday, so whether or not you want to predict higher or lower sales. We'll have to have to see how people engage with these releases first



Switch Friend Code : 3905-6122-2909 

peachbuggy said:

Another funny "Prediction" from July 2021. Ya know, it's funny how you talk with such authority, like it's a certainty your predictions will come true, when it's clear they don't. An "imo" would be so much better. There are many other wrong "predictions" from you i could find. Now it's been proven there's no logic to your predictions, i put it to you they are based on wishful thinking and also that you are, indeed a Quickrick alt!

I've already answered about all of this 3 months ago.

https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/245129/global-hardware-august-8-14-ps5-and-switch-sales-rise/2/

Go and read my posts here. I am not repeating my self again.

But with a few words. My prediction was what you quoted yes. However my prediction was based on the case that PS5 and XBSX will fixed their shortages fully by the start of 2022 (which they don't) and because of this Switch will loose some sales. Now you may say that they don't impact each other. I say that they do. Anyway this is another topic. However because of this I made my prediction. Of cource that now as the shortages are still present for the PS5 and XBSX Switch hasn't decreased so much.

Oh and also my prediction was between the 15 to 18M range. not exact 15M.

Which won't be too far from what Switch will finish this year, and if it wasn't for the shortages I am sure it would finish even below 18M as PS5 and XBSX would rise more.

Also it is obvious that when you make predictions it's your opinion. No one can tell with certainty what will happen and how the thing are going to play out.

So of cource those predictions that I am giving are my opinions. As have to be every other person's prediction as well. And no it's been proven nothing. Everyone can have opinions and predictions. There is no need to prove anything. My predictions are based on the situations I think will happen. As it have to be with every other person. Because no one can say if there will be price cut for example, or shortages, or when exactly next gen switch will come or even the pandemic if you want. Quickrick is troll I am not! Don't compare me, You just don't like me that's all. And that's why you show more personal side than with someone other.

And also I don't know why you even interfere ? The argument here was between me and curl-6 and it was about the 6th and 3rd year, not about my other prediction. If we will say who's prediction is wrond or right than you have to name almost everyone here since everyone has answered in the threads about predicitions for every year and many of the people have been wrong. I was wrong about 1 thing. The shortages. If they fixed than my prediction about switch sales would be right and on point 15-18M. However the shortages are present and even last year I said it in one of the posts that if the shortages are still present than I can see the switch reaching a max of 20M. Go and find it and read it.

Last edited by yo33331 - on 22 July 2022