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Forums - Sales Discussion - PS5 and XS Sales Are Nearly Tied - Global Hardware June 5-11

Mandalore76 on 23 June 2022
yo33331 said:
curl-6 said:

A year 6 total of over 20 million would be insane. What other systems have ever done this? I assume DS, but anything else?

Maybe no.

However no other console has also done what PS2 has done. For a few years after it's successor's launch (2006) PS2 has steep declines in yearly sales as well as sales (or shipments rather) well above 10M (14 and 13M for the years 2007 and 2008) when it's successor was already released and the gen was in full swing. Even in 2009 and after PS2 was selling 8, 7 and 6M respectively. In it's 7th and 8th year PS2 sells 14 and 13M and in it's 9th and 10th years PS2 did 8 and 7M. Even in it's last years PS2 has been doing 4 and 2M units per year which now consoles do in their second year after it's succesor or third at best. PS2 did around 2M the year before it's successor's successor launched.

So when we talk about mountains Switch has a lot more to catch and conquer.

That's a dual edged sword though.  The PS2's continued success post the launch of it's successor is a bit of a knock on the PS3.  The PS3 was priced so high, that people just getting into gaming around that time vastly preferred to grab a PS2 over plunking $599 down on a video game console (which would be like spending $868 on a console today).  And the PS3's early losses managed to wipe out 2 generations of profit (PS1 & PS2 combined), so Sony didn't really benefit at all from those late gen PS2 sales.  The PS2 was selling for $149 by '04, reduced again to $129 in '06, and was just $99 in '09.  It's unlikely we see end of life pricecuts like that again.  The PS4 never dropped to that $199 pricepoint everyone was so sure would eventually come.  Even the Wii U, during its lifelong struggle, never saw significant price reductions.  So, the Switch will have to achieve its end of life sales at a much higher price point (although the Lite option does help offset that).  And I'm pretty sure Nintendo would prefer the Switch's successor to be successful out of the gate, rather than be a reason for legacy hardware to continue selling at a high level for years afterwards.  Would it be amazing if the Switch managed to sell over 158 million units?  Of course.  Is that Nintendo's going concern right now?  Doubtful.

In the end, the # of units sold is just that, a number.  Nintendo could have found a way to move a couple million more Wii's to move it past the PS1 in lifetime total.  Just like they could have supported the DS more at the end of its life to push its total past the PS2 and claim "most units sold of any videogame system (handheld or console)".  Just like Sony could have sold a lot more PS4's in the past year instead of having it stall right below Gameboy on the lifetime hardware chart.  But, units sold at the end of a consoles life don't drive profit or revenue.  Which at the end of the day, is a hardware manufacturer's primary concern.



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darthv72 on 23 June 2022

If Nintendo did decide to cut the price of switch... I assume sales would spike again. I know in my house we already have 3 different ones. And as someone interested in collecting variants, getting some for cheaper is never a bad thing.

Last edited by darthv72 - on 23 June 2022

Shatts on 23 June 2022
Fight-the-Streets said:

I think one other reason why the PS2 was so successful is that it was the first console generation where graphics looked impressive even to those who laughed at games so far and declared them as kids' stuff. For the first time, console games looked graphically on par with arcade games with impressive special effects and clear voice output. Therefore, many adult former non-gamers bought a PS2 just because they were impressed by the graphics and the games actually looked like adult entertainment. Of course, the Dreamcast was the first of this graphically impressive generation but non-gamers didn't noticed this console.

I mean that too, but a lot of people bought the PS2 back then for the dvd player alone. 



Fight-the-Streets on 23 June 2022
Shatts said:
Fight-the-Streets said:

I think one other reason why the PS2 was so successful is that it was the first console generation where graphics looked impressive even to those who laughed at games so far and declared them as kids' stuff. For the first time, console games looked graphically on par with arcade games with impressive special effects and clear voice output. Therefore, many adult former non-gamers bought a PS2 just because they were impressed by the graphics and the games actually looked like adult entertainment. Of course, the Dreamcast was the first of this graphically impressive generation but non-gamers didn't noticed this console.

I mean that too, but a lot of people bought the PS2 back then for the dvd player alone. 

Another factor is that back then PC gaming was awkwardly painful and PC ports were often horrible. Therefore, most PC gamers had an absolute need for a console, the PS2 was an obvious choice.



archbrix on 23 June 2022
curl-6 said:
ShadowLink93 said:

The DS 6th fiscal year was 17.53m according to official shipments from Nintendo and that is the highest ever FY6 beating out PS2's 16.22 million in 05-06. Of course sell through numbers may differ a little.

Far out, so Switch is very likely headed for the best 6th year any system has ever had.

Beyond that, Switch will look even more impressive. Compare ShadowLink93's DS graph above to his graph for Switch fiscal shipments:

Obviously, the first fiscal report (yellow) was skewed due to the DS launching during the holiday.  While Switch beats DS by a little in its first full fiscal year (red), the DS Lite debuted in the '06 - '07 period (orange) and sales took off from there.  Comparing the two systems' full sixth year fiscals (pink) will have the Switch claiming its next win: 17.53 DS vs Nintendo's projected 21m for Switch, a target it is almost certain to hit. So yeah, higher than any system in its sixth year.

However, it's the next fiscal year (lime green) where the Switch will be most impressive and stand head and shoulders above anything.  The DS had a drastic fall to 5.10m that year.  Barring Nintendo launching a true successor prematurely (and I mean 2023 early), the Switch will likely be in the neighborhood of 15m or so in its 7th full fiscal year.  That is unprecedented for hardware sales in the industry, not to mention all of the money that Nintendo is raking in from software from this thing.  Upon its launch I knew Switch would do well, but I never would have anticipated this kind of performance.



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Jumpin on 23 June 2022
Mandalore76 said:
yo33331 said:

Maybe no.

However no other console has also done what PS2 has done. For a few years after it's successor's launch (2006) PS2 has steep declines in yearly sales as well as sales (or shipments rather) well above 10M (14 and 13M for the years 2007 and 2008) when it's successor was already released and the gen was in full swing. Even in 2009 and after PS2 was selling 8, 7 and 6M respectively. In it's 7th and 8th year PS2 sells 14 and 13M and in it's 9th and 10th years PS2 did 8 and 7M. Even in it's last years PS2 has been doing 4 and 2M units per year which now consoles do in their second year after it's succesor or third at best. PS2 did around 2M the year before it's successor's successor launched.

So when we talk about mountains Switch has a lot more to catch and conquer.

That's a dual edged sword though.  The PS2's continued success post the launch of it's successor is a bit of a knock on the PS3.  The PS3 was priced so high, that people just getting into gaming around that time vastly preferred to grab a PS2 over plunking $599 down on a video game console (which would be like spending $868 on a console today).  And the PS3's early losses managed to wipe out 2 generations of profit (PS1 & PS2 combined), so Sony didn't really benefit at all from those late gen PS2 sales.  The PS2 was selling for $149 by '04, reduced again to $129 in '06, and was just $99 in '09.  It's unlikely we see end of life pricecuts like that again.  The PS4 never dropped to that $199 pricepoint everyone was so sure would eventually come.  Even the Wii U, during its lifelong struggle, never saw significant price reductions.  So, the Switch will have to achieve its end of life sales at a much higher price point (although the Lite option does help offset that).  And I'm pretty sure Nintendo would prefer the Switch's successor to be successful out of the gate, rather than be a reason for legacy hardware to continue selling at a high level for years afterwards.  Would it be amazing if the Switch managed to sell over 158 million units?  Of course.  Is that Nintendo's going concern right now?  Doubtful.

In the end, the # of units sold is just that, a number.  Nintendo could have found a way to move a couple million more Wii's to move it past the PS1 in lifetime total.  Just like they could have supported the DS more at the end of its life to push its total past the PS2 and claim "most units sold of any videogame system (handheld or console)".  Just like Sony could have sold a lot more PS4's in the past year instead of having it stall right below Gameboy on the lifetime hardware chart.  But, units sold at the end of a consoles life don't drive profit or revenue.  Which at the end of the day, is a hardware manufacturer's primary concern.

I love this post.

From its on point reasoning right down to the “That’s the bottom line” wordplay.



I describe myself as a little dose of toxic masculinity.

ShadowLink93 on 23 June 2022
archbrix said:
curl-6 said:

Far out, so Switch is very likely headed for the best 6th year any system has ever had.

Beyond that, Switch will look even more impressive. Compare ShadowLink93's DS graph above to his graph for Switch fiscal shipments

Obviously, the first fiscal report (yellow) was skewed due to the DS launching during the holiday.  While Switch beats DS by a little in its first full fiscal year (red), the DS Lite debuted in the '06 - '07 period (orange) and sales took off from there.  Comparing the two systems' full sixth year fiscals (pink) will have the Switch claiming its next win: 17.53 DS vs Nintendo's projected 21m for Switch, a target it is almost certain to hit. So yeah, higher than any system in its sixth year.

However, it's the next fiscal year (lime green) where the Switch will be most impressive and stand head and shoulders above anything.  The DS had a drastic fall to 5.10m that year.  Barring Nintendo launching a true successor prematurely (and I mean 2023 early), the Switch will likely be in the neighborhood of 15m or so in its 7th full fiscal year.  That is unprecedented for hardware sales in the industry, not to mention all of the money that Nintendo is raking in from software from this thing.  Upon its launch I knew Switch would do well, but I never would have anticipated this kind of performance.

You're right it's FY7 (23-24) when Switch is absolutely going to trounced the DS yearly numbers of 5.1m thus making up that deficit, i think the switch could achieve numbers of 15 to 19m. This will be where the deciding battle begins and ends. If switch can achieve a 15m plus year then it will be within striking distance only needing around 10m sales then it will be a done deal, if it collapses to 12m or less then it's probably not going to happen.

Last edited by ShadowLink93 - on 23 June 2022

ShadowLink93 on 23 June 2022

Even though DS was outsold by PS2 and likely Switch i think there are records it has that may never be beaten because 70% of it's sales were concentrated over a four year period unlike other high selling systems where the sales are more spread out. Here are a few records that might not be beaten

1. Fastest console to 100m
2. Two 30m+ fiscal years
3. Three 25m+ fiscal years
4. Four 22.5m+ fiscal years
5. Three 11m+ holiday quarters
6. Four 6m+ non holiday quarters
7. Nine 5m+ non holiday quarters
8. Eleven 4m+ non holiday quarters
9. Thirteen 3.5m+ non holiday quarters
10. 112m sold over a four year period (2006-10)
11. Highest FY of 31.18m
12. Highest non holiday Quarter of 6.98m
13. Highest Q1 of 6.98m
14. Highest Q3 of 11.89m
15. Highest Q4 of 5.81m

Last edited by ShadowLink93 - on 23 June 2022

ShadowLink93 on 23 June 2022
yo33331 said:
ShadowLink93 said:

1. Fastest console to 100m
2. Two 30m+ fiscal years
3. Three 25m+ fiscal years
4. Four 22.5m+ fiscal years
5. Three 11m+ holiday quarters
6. Four 6m+ non holiday quarters
7. Nine 5m+ non holiday quarters
8. Eleven 4m+ non holiday quarters
9. Thirteen 3.5m+ non holiday quarters
10. 112m sold over a four year period (2006-10)
11. Highest non holiday Quarter of 6.98m

as well as

12. Highest holiday quarter of 11.89M

or even

13. Highest fiscal year - 31.18

and 14. Second highest fiscal year - 30.31M

added them.



archbrix on 23 June 2022
ShadowLink93 said:
archbrix said:

Beyond that, Switch will look even more impressive. Compare ShadowLink93's DS graph above to his graph for Switch fiscal shipments

Obviously, the first fiscal report (yellow) was skewed due to the DS launching during the holiday.  While Switch beats DS by a little in its first full fiscal year (red), the DS Lite debuted in the '06 - '07 period (orange) and sales took off from there.  Comparing the two systems' full sixth year fiscals (pink) will have the Switch claiming its next win: 17.53 DS vs Nintendo's projected 21m for Switch, a target it is almost certain to hit. So yeah, higher than any system in its sixth year.

However, it's the next fiscal year (lime green) where the Switch will be most impressive and stand head and shoulders above anything.  The DS had a drastic fall to 5.10m that year.  Barring Nintendo launching a true successor prematurely (and I mean 2023 early), the Switch will likely be in the neighborhood of 15m or so in its 7th full fiscal year.  That is unprecedented for hardware sales in the industry, not to mention all of the money that Nintendo is raking in from software from this thing.  Upon its launch I knew Switch would do well, but I never would have anticipated this kind of performance.

You're right it's FY7 (23-24) when Switch is absolutely going to trounced the DS yearly numbers of 5.1m thus making up that deficit, i think the switch could achieve numbers of 15 to 19m. This will be where the deciding battle begins and ends. If switch can achieve a 15m plus year then it will be within striking distance only needing around 10m sales then it will be a done deal, if it collapses to 12m or less then it's probably not going to happen.

Yeah, I was just using 15m as a base; I think they could be as high as 19m for sure.

If you think of games in 2023-2024:  BOTW2, probably Prime 4, I still believe a new 3d Mario around the time of the movie maybe.  There's the new Kart tracks too and I would hope that Pikmin 4 shows up, plus so many other smaller IPs that they could run the gamut with if they choose to in 2023-2024 that wouldn't be coming from the bigger teams:  Starfox, F-Zero, Pilotwings, Punch Out, a new Excite Bike/Truck/Robot-thing racer maybe.  But the last big game from a team like EPD should be a truly new Super Mario Bros game - something you would expect from a "Super Mario Bros 5" with a brand new art style, new suit powers and new ost, maybe as the big holiday title of 2023.  Because I hope Nintendo is too smart not the realize what a title like that could do on Switch.  Plus, a whole new set of assets for a Mario Maker 3 title at some point, just for RolStoppable.

And I do think that $20-$40 price cuts on all models will happen eventually - especially the Lite, which I could definitely see at $169 at some point (same price 3DS settled at right after launch).

If Nintendo follows through like this and gives the Switch the twilight years of the NES instead of the Wii - and launches Switch 2 in 2024 (or later) I do think that Switch will sell 160m+ lifetime, but the all important profit and market-share gains will be equally impressive.