By using this site, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our Terms of Use. Close
archbrix on 23 June 2022
Edit Thread
ShadowLink93 said:
archbrix said:

Beyond that, Switch will look even more impressive. Compare ShadowLink93's DS graph above to his graph for Switch fiscal shipments

Obviously, the first fiscal report (yellow) was skewed due to the DS launching during the holiday.  While Switch beats DS by a little in its first full fiscal year (red), the DS Lite debuted in the '06 - '07 period (orange) and sales took off from there.  Comparing the two systems' full sixth year fiscals (pink) will have the Switch claiming its next win: 17.53 DS vs Nintendo's projected 21m for Switch, a target it is almost certain to hit. So yeah, higher than any system in its sixth year.

However, it's the next fiscal year (lime green) where the Switch will be most impressive and stand head and shoulders above anything.  The DS had a drastic fall to 5.10m that year.  Barring Nintendo launching a true successor prematurely (and I mean 2023 early), the Switch will likely be in the neighborhood of 15m or so in its 7th full fiscal year.  That is unprecedented for hardware sales in the industry, not to mention all of the money that Nintendo is raking in from software from this thing.  Upon its launch I knew Switch would do well, but I never would have anticipated this kind of performance.

You're right it's FY7 (23-24) when Switch is absolutely going to trounced the DS yearly numbers of 5.1m thus making up that deficit, i think the switch could achieve numbers of 15 to 19m. This will be where the deciding battle begins and ends. If switch can achieve a 15m plus year then it will be within striking distance only needing around 10m sales then it will be a done deal, if it collapses to 12m or less then it's probably not going to happen.

Yeah, I was just using 15m as a base; I think they could be as high as 19m for sure.

If you think of games in 2023-2024:  BOTW2, probably Prime 4, I still believe a new 3d Mario around the time of the movie maybe.  There's the new Kart tracks too and I would hope that Pikmin 4 shows up, plus so many other smaller IPs that they could run the gamut with if they choose to in 2023-2024 that wouldn't be coming from the bigger teams:  Starfox, F-Zero, Pilotwings, Punch Out, a new Excite Bike/Truck/Robot-thing racer maybe.  But the last big game from a team like EPD should be a truly new Super Mario Bros game - something you would expect from a "Super Mario Bros 5" with a brand new art style, new suit powers and new ost, maybe as the big holiday title of 2023.  Because I hope Nintendo is too smart not the realize what a title like that could do on Switch.  Plus, a whole new set of assets for a Mario Maker 3 title at some point, just for RolStoppable.

And I do think that $20-$40 price cuts on all models will happen eventually - especially the Lite, which I could definitely see at $169 at some point (same price 3DS settled at right after launch).

If Nintendo follows through like this and gives the Switch the twilight years of the NES instead of the Wii - and launches Switch 2 in 2024 (or later) I do think that Switch will sell 160m+ lifetime, but the all important profit and market-share gains will be equally impressive.