added them.

Yeah, I was just using 15m as a base; I think they could be as high as 19m for sure.

If you think of games in 2023-2024:  BOTW2, probably Prime 4, I still believe a new 3d Mario around the time of the movie maybe.  There's the new Kart tracks too and I would hope that Pikmin 4 shows up, plus so many other smaller IPs that they could run the gamut with if they choose to in 2023-2024 that wouldn't be coming from the bigger teams:  Starfox, F-Zero, Pilotwings, Punch Out, a new Excite Bike/Truck/Robot-thing racer maybe.  But the last big game from a team like EPD should be a truly new Super Mario Bros game - something you would expect from a "Super Mario Bros 5" with a brand new art style, new suit powers and new ost, maybe as the big holiday title of 2023.  Because I hope Nintendo is too smart not the realize what a title like that could do on Switch.  Plus, a whole new set of assets for a Mario Maker 3 title at some point, just for RolStoppable.

And I do think that $20-$40 price cuts on all models will happen eventually - especially the Lite, which I could definitely see at $169 at some point (same price 3DS settled at right after launch).

If Nintendo follows through like this and gives the Switch the twilight years of the NES instead of the Wii - and launches Switch 2 in 2024 (or later) I do think that Switch will sell 160m+ lifetime, but the all important profit and market-share gains will be equally impressive.

What's the current record for the highest 7th year a system has ever had?

Cos if Switch doesn't get replaced in 2023, and the flow of games continues... (Not saying this will happen, but it's a possibility)

16.22M on the PS2. Switch is not going to make more than 16M next year. Not gonna happen

That's a long shot, but it's not impossible.

We don't know enough about what Switch's situation will be next year yet.

I think it's possible depending on Nintendo's next move. It also depends on what would count into this Switch's sales. If they make a "Switch Pro" like the PS4 pro would that count as a Switch or a next-gen console. Is Nintendo going to follow their roots and keep innovating their hardware, or are they going to follow the Sony/Microsoft route where they upgrade the specs with minimal innovation. Will they lower the price of the Switch, will they expand their market territory. I think if they really wanted to, they can easily pass the PS2 but I doubt they care.

That 16.22m for PS2 lines up with fiscal ending March 2023 for Switch, which Nintendo's system will easily beat (21m projected):

Your comparison for Switch's 2023-2024 fiscal would be with PS2's 14.20m, an impressive number, but one that I think the Switch will also beat.

PS2 did keep some very consistent numbers after that though.

NS dominates as usual
PS5 outselling or at least tying with XS when average demand is not too high doesn't mean supply problems are over, quite the opposite they already lasted more than most of us expected, although I guess Sony has plans that carefully weight costs and benefits also in dealing with supplies.

16.22m was FY6, the highest ever FY7 is indeed from PS2 but 14.20m.

If Switch isn't replaced next year and gets 2023 to itself, then I reckon it has s good chance of selling more than 14.2m and exceeding PS2's year 7.