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Forums - Sales - Switch Sales Top 108 Million - Global Hardware May 15-21

So PS5 is falling of a cliff?



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The_Liquid_Laser said:
Otter said:

I already gave you GT7's launch split from the UK earlier in the thread

"76% of sales was for the PS5 version, with the remainder coming on PS4."

https://www.gamesindustry.biz/articles/2022-03-07-gran-turismo-7-overtakes-elden-ring-to-take-pole-position-uk-boxed-charts

There were no bundles at launch.

It's not just first party either. Elden Ring UK Launch sales were 3x higher on playstation 5 compared to Playstation 4

"According to GSD's digital and physical numbers, 32% of sales were on PlayStation 5, 30% on PC, 29% on Xbox and 9% on PS4.

https://www.gamesindustry.biz/articles/2022-03-03-elden-ring-is-the-biggest-non-fifa-or-call-of-duty-launch-since-red-dead-redemption-2-uk-digital-chartshttps://www.gamesindustry.biz/articles/2022-03-03-elden-ring-is-the-biggest-non-fifa-or-call-of-duty-launch-since-red-dead-redemption-2-uk-digital-charts

For Elden Ring, that is only one nation.  In Japan, the situation was reversed and PS4 SKU of Elden Ring sold about 3 times what the PS5 SKU sold.  You are going to need more data than just one market.

curl-6 said:

Let me put it this way; if there is no reason to buy a PS5, why do you think over 20 million people to date have bought one, and why is it instantly selling out everywhere in the world as soon as it hits shelves?

PS4 Pro sold about 20 million or so.  There are some people who want a hardware upgrade, but it isn't anywhere close to the majority.  Some of it is also branding.  The most hardcore Playstation fans will buy one even if it has few new games just like hardcore Nintendo fans bought a Wii U the first year or so.  Although PS5 is really more like N64 than any other system.  N64 sold really well for the first 1-2 years and then sales plummeted.  Nintendo had always been the market leader up to that point, so that was the system people bought in anticipation of games that would be coming out.  After the early adopters bought the system they assumed would be best, the mass market went for Playstation.  Something similar is happening right now.  Hardcore PS4 fans are buying PS5's, but soon sales will run out and it will be obvious that a lot of people have switched to Nintendo or XBox.

As for instantly selling out, that is because there is a chip shortage and a lot of scalpers.  Supply is limited.  Scalpers are taking advantage of this worldwide and buying all PS5's as soon as they are in stock.  This is not like the Wii's situation though during it's first few years.  There was no chip shortage with the Wii.  It was hard to find, because demand was far higher than Nintendo anticipated.  Wii = excessive demand.  PS5 = limited supply.  PS5 is not selling Wii numbers.  It's not as popular as you seem to think.

At this point you're determined to live in your disillusion, so I won't put any more time into this discussion. I'll just end by pointing out how ironic it is that this whole time you've been bashing on about the need for next-gen exclusive software to sell hardware... yet suddenly you think sales for PS5 are going to fall off a cliff once the next gen software starts to arrives (Gotham Knights, Forspoken, Avatar, Resident Evil 4, Star Wars: Jedi Survives, Final Fantasy 16, Pragmata, Spiderman 2, Knights of the Old Republic, Wolverthine and I'm sure many more titles to be announced over the summer)

The PS5 is likely not going to peak sales wise until 2024



The_Liquid_Laser said:
Norion said:

If that is the case then why did the PS5 versions of Elden Ring, GT7 and Forbidden West massively outsell the PS4 versions? Those games would sell hardware more if they weren't cross-gen but it's clear that the hardware selling effect while diminished is still notable.

Do you have numbers for Elden Ring by platform?  My understanding for GT7 and HFW is that they are often bundled with the PS5 in certain nations.

The data is more muddled than I thought but the PS5 version of Elden Ring did outsell the PS4 version in Spain I think. You say later that there are some people who want a hardware upgrade so if you recognize that it's at least some then that's fine. I'm not saying and I don't think anyone else is saying that the main reason the PS5 has been selling is cross-gen games, just that it's one of the reasons since cross-gen games do still sell hardware even if the effect is diminished. Just cause we're saying it's a factor doesn't mean we think it's the main factor, you just seemed to be denying that it's a notable factor at all when it is one. Right now the main reason for it selling is brand power and next year exclusives and gen 9 multiplats will start to increase as a factor.



Norion said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:

Do you have numbers for Elden Ring by platform?  My understanding for GT7 and HFW is that they are often bundled with the PS5 in certain nations.

The data is more muddled than I thought but the PS5 version of Elden Ring did outsell the PS4 version in Spain I think. You say later that there are some people who want a hardware upgrade so if you recognize that it's at least some then that's fine. I'm not saying and I don't think anyone else is saying that the main reason the PS5 has been selling is cross-gen games, just that it's one of the reasons since cross-gen games do still sell hardware even if the effect is diminished. Just cause we're saying it's a factor doesn't mean we think it's the main factor, you just seemed to be denying that it's a notable factor at all when it is one. Right now the main reason for it selling is brand power and next year exclusives and gen 9 multiplats will start to increase as a factor.

As I've said before, crossgen games are like ports.  Ports are better than nothing, but who wants a system of only ports?  Likewise if I said, "the Wii U didn't sell", that doesn't mean that I think it literally sold 0 units.  It means that it didn't sell well.  Context matters.  "Crossgen games don't sell hardware" really means "crossgen games do not sell hardware nearly as well as a game that would require you to buy a new system".  The Vita had a lot of ports and crossplatform games.  It sold more than 0 units, but it didn't sell well.

I entered this discussion when curl-6 said something like the PS5 could sell 30m units per year if supply were enough.  I do not think PS5 demand is nearly so high.  In fact, I think supply will catch up with demand this year in spite of chip shortages.  There is this perception that the PS5 is in demand like the Wii was.  I don't think that is the case at all.  The Wii would continue to sell out, because demand was far greater than Nintendo anticipated.  The PS5 is selling out because of limited supply. 

Wii = excessive demand.  PS5 = not enough supply.  I'm using Economics terms.  These are two common ways for the price of a product to go up.  Either increase demand or decrease supply.  In a video game market either situation could cause an entire shipment to be bought and scalped at a higher price.  The PS5 doesn't have amazing demand like the Wii.  It has limited supply.

Last edited by The_Liquid_Laser - on 09 June 2022

The_Liquid_Laser said:
Norion said:

The data is more muddled than I thought but the PS5 version of Elden Ring did outsell the PS4 version in Spain I think. You say later that there are some people who want a hardware upgrade so if you recognize that it's at least some then that's fine. I'm not saying and I don't think anyone else is saying that the main reason the PS5 has been selling is cross-gen games, just that it's one of the reasons since cross-gen games do still sell hardware even if the effect is diminished. Just cause we're saying it's a factor doesn't mean we think it's the main factor, you just seemed to be denying that it's a notable factor at all when it is one. Right now the main reason for it selling is brand power and next year exclusives and gen 9 multiplats will start to increase as a factor.

As I've said before, crossgen games are like ports.  Ports are better than nothing, but who wants a system of only ports?  Likewise if I said, "the Wii U didn't sell", that doesn't mean that I think it literally sold 0 units.  It means that it didn't sell well.  Context matters.  "Crossgen games don't sell hardware" really means "crossgen games do not sell hardware nearly as well as a game that would require you to buy a new system".  The Vita had a lot of ports and crossplatform games.  It sold more than 0 units, but it didn't sell well.

I entered this discussion when curl-6 said something like the PS5 could sell 30m units per year if supply were enough.  I do not think PS5 demand is nearly so high.  In fact, I think supply will catch up with demand this year in spite of chip shortages.  There is this perception that the PS5 is in demand like the Wii was.  I don't think that is the case at all.  The Wii would continue to sell out, because demand was far greater than Nintendo anticipated.  The PS5 is selling out because of limited supply. 

Wii = excessive demand.  PS5 = not enough supply.  I'm using Economics terms.  These are two common ways for the price of a product to go up.  Either increase demand or decrease supply.  In a video game market either situation could cause an entire shipment to be bought and scalped at a higher price.  The PS5 doesn't have amazing demand like the Wii.  It has limited supply.

Here is my personal confusion, a summary of two statements from you are below:

1) ps5 doesn't have true exclusives

2) true exclusives sell hardware

The problem with statement 1 and 2, is the ps5 is in fact selling very well.  So one of your two statements, by default, has to be false.  



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yo33331 said:
Chrkeller said:

The problem with statement 1 and 2, is the ps5 is in fact selling very well.  So one of your two statements, by default, has to be false.  

I am not sure how well is selling PS5 when it is doing less than what PS3 did in 08 in the same time of the year. In fact PS3 was all over the news and the web back then for selling poorly. And now all of a sudden PS5 is doing 500k less for the year till june and is selling very well ? I doubt it.

But of course we all know the reason the shortages..

I personally think when this is fixed PS5 will be selling maybe PS4 levels for 1-2 years, then go somewhere between PS4 and PS3 levels weekly.

Maybe doing somewhere between PS3 and PS4 lifetime if Sony plays their cards right until the end of the generation.

True, but to be fair the ps3 was what $700 or something stupid?  And it was being compared to the ps2 which is the top selling console of all time.  Meaning the ps3 didn't sell poorly, just below expectations, which is a different matter.

And like you said, add in the chip shortage for the ps5. 

I am going extreme to prove a point, the ps5 has already out sold the Wii U.  It isn't like the ps5 is a bust.  

The ps5 continues to sell out in minutes when there is a restock... a good demand is there.  So clearly either the lineup isn't a problem or games don't sell hardware.  Both of Liquid's statements cannot, by default, be true.



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The_Liquid_Laser said:
Norion said:

The data is more muddled than I thought but the PS5 version of Elden Ring did outsell the PS4 version in Spain I think. You say later that there are some people who want a hardware upgrade so if you recognize that it's at least some then that's fine. I'm not saying and I don't think anyone else is saying that the main reason the PS5 has been selling is cross-gen games, just that it's one of the reasons since cross-gen games do still sell hardware even if the effect is diminished. Just cause we're saying it's a factor doesn't mean we think it's the main factor, you just seemed to be denying that it's a notable factor at all when it is one. Right now the main reason for it selling is brand power and next year exclusives and gen 9 multiplats will start to increase as a factor.

As I've said before, crossgen games are like ports.  Ports are better than nothing, but who wants a system of only ports?  Likewise if I said, "the Wii U didn't sell", that doesn't mean that I think it literally sold 0 units.  It means that it didn't sell well.  Context matters.  "Crossgen games don't sell hardware" really means "crossgen games do not sell hardware nearly as well as a game that would require you to buy a new system".  The Vita had a lot of ports and crossplatform games.  It sold more than 0 units, but it didn't sell well.

I entered this discussion when curl-6 said something like the PS5 could sell 30m units per year if supply were enough.  I do not think PS5 demand is nearly so high.  In fact, I think supply will catch up with demand this year in spite of chip shortages.  There is this perception that the PS5 is in demand like the Wii was.  I don't think that is the case at all.  The Wii would continue to sell out, because demand was far greater than Nintendo anticipated.  The PS5 is selling out because of limited supply. 

Wii = excessive demand.  PS5 = not enough supply.  I'm using Economics terms.  These are two common ways for the price of a product to go up.  Either increase demand or decrease supply.  In a video game market either situation could cause an entire shipment to be bought and scalped at a higher price.  The PS5 doesn't have amazing demand like the Wii.  It has limited supply.

Not that many people would solely for them but getting a PS5 now for games like Elden Ring knowing that exclusives and 9 gen multiplats are on the way seems reasonable to me. Looking at the yearly chart index by 2015 gen 8 versions of games generally destroyed gen 7 versions in sales. When comparing the sales of Black Ops 3 on the PS4 and Xbox One to the PS3 and 360 it's clear that the vast majority of COD fans didn't wanna play the gimped versions so it should be a similar situation with Modern Warfare 2 so better versions of extremely popular games is a notable factor for many people in getting a new console. There's also the element of a portion of consumers not even knowing that there's a PS4 version of games like Elden Ring to consider.

I agree that demand isn't so high to make 30m in a year realistic but it getting a peak year of around 20m could happen when there is enough supply. Demand is already at a point where it would sell over 200k weekly if there was enough so perhaps not Wii levels but still pretty high.

Last edited by Norion - on 09 June 2022

Chrkeller said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:

As I've said before, crossgen games are like ports.  Ports are better than nothing, but who wants a system of only ports?  Likewise if I said, "the Wii U didn't sell", that doesn't mean that I think it literally sold 0 units.  It means that it didn't sell well.  Context matters.  "Crossgen games don't sell hardware" really means "crossgen games do not sell hardware nearly as well as a game that would require you to buy a new system".  The Vita had a lot of ports and crossplatform games.  It sold more than 0 units, but it didn't sell well.

I entered this discussion when curl-6 said something like the PS5 could sell 30m units per year if supply were enough.  I do not think PS5 demand is nearly so high.  In fact, I think supply will catch up with demand this year in spite of chip shortages.  There is this perception that the PS5 is in demand like the Wii was.  I don't think that is the case at all.  The Wii would continue to sell out, because demand was far greater than Nintendo anticipated.  The PS5 is selling out because of limited supply. 

Wii = excessive demand.  PS5 = not enough supply.  I'm using Economics terms.  These are two common ways for the price of a product to go up.  Either increase demand or decrease supply.  In a video game market either situation could cause an entire shipment to be bought and scalped at a higher price.  The PS5 doesn't have amazing demand like the Wii.  It has limited supply.

Here is my personal confusion, a summary of two statements from you are below:

1) ps5 doesn't have true exclusives

2) true exclusives sell hardware

The problem with statement 1 and 2, is the ps5 is in fact selling very well.  So one of your two statements, by default, has to be false.  

One problem is that this isn't my argument.  I am talking about crossgen games and not "true exclusives".  Another problem is that the PS5 isn't actually selling well.  For a while it was the "fastest selling console of all time".  Now it's behind the Wii, PS4 and Switch launch aligned.  Its sales rate has cooled off significantly.  A third problem, one that hasn't really been discussed yet, is that PS5 has some really hardcore competition this time around from both Nintendo and Microsoft.  Even when it gets some good software, like FF16, that may not help a whole lot, because the other systems may still look more attractive to customers.  Those other systems can get good software too (and in fact the Switch already has a ton of great selling software).



The_Liquid_Laser said:
Chrkeller said:

Here is my personal confusion, a summary of two statements from you are below:

1) ps5 doesn't have true exclusives

2) true exclusives sell hardware

The problem with statement 1 and 2, is the ps5 is in fact selling very well.  So one of your two statements, by default, has to be false.  

One problem is that this isn't my argument.  I am talking about crossgen games and not "true exclusives".  Another problem is that the PS5 isn't actually selling well.  For a while it was the "fastest selling console of all time".  Now it's behind the Wii, PS4 and Switch launch aligned.  Its sales rate has cooled off significantly.  A third problem, one that hasn't really been discussed yet, is that PS5 has some really hardcore competition this time around from both Nintendo and Microsoft.  Even when it gets some good software, like FF16, that may not help a whole lot, because the other systems may still look more attractive to customers.  Those other systems can get good software too (and in fact the Switch already has a ton of great selling software).

The Wii, ps4 and Switch are all excellent selling consoles.  Being behind doesn't equate to "not selling well."  That is an exaggeration.  And there is clearly a shortage.  But whatever, your mind is made up and time will tell.



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The_Liquid_Laser said:
curl-6 said:

Let me put it this way; if there is no reason to buy a PS5, why do you think over 20 million people to date have bought one, and why is it instantly selling out everywhere in the world as soon as it hits shelves?

PS4 Pro sold about 20 million or so.  There are some people who want a hardware upgrade, but it isn't anywhere close to the majority.  Some of it is also branding.  The most hardcore Playstation fans will buy one even if it has few new games just like hardcore Nintendo fans bought a Wii U the first year or so.  Although PS5 is really more like N64 than any other system.  N64 sold really well for the first 1-2 years and then sales plummeted.  Nintendo had always been the market leader up to that point, so that was the system people bought in anticipation of games that would be coming out.  After the early adopters bought the system they assumed would be best, the mass market went for Playstation.  Something similar is happening right now.  Hardcore PS4 fans are buying PS5's, but soon sales will run out and it will be obvious that a lot of people have switched to Nintendo or XBox.

As for instantly selling out, that is because there is a chip shortage and a lot of scalpers.  Supply is limited.  Scalpers are taking advantage of this worldwide and buying all PS5's as soon as they are in stock.  This is not like the Wii's situation though during it's first few years.  There was no chip shortage with the Wii.  It was hard to find, because demand was far higher than Nintendo anticipated.  Wii = excessive demand.  PS5 = limited supply.  PS5 is not selling Wii numbers.  It's not as popular as you seem to think.

You've said that PS5 lacks 9th gen exclusive software, and that this means there's little reason to buy one.

Surely you don't think games are going to keep coming to the PS4 for the entirety of the PS5's life? We're already seeing many upcoming big games start to leave the 8th generation behind. This big 9th gen software you say is so essential is coming.

Last edited by curl-6 - on 09 June 2022