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Norion on 09 June 2022
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The_Liquid_Laser said:
Norion said:

The data is more muddled than I thought but the PS5 version of Elden Ring did outsell the PS4 version in Spain I think. You say later that there are some people who want a hardware upgrade so if you recognize that it's at least some then that's fine. I'm not saying and I don't think anyone else is saying that the main reason the PS5 has been selling is cross-gen games, just that it's one of the reasons since cross-gen games do still sell hardware even if the effect is diminished. Just cause we're saying it's a factor doesn't mean we think it's the main factor, you just seemed to be denying that it's a notable factor at all when it is one. Right now the main reason for it selling is brand power and next year exclusives and gen 9 multiplats will start to increase as a factor.

As I've said before, crossgen games are like ports.  Ports are better than nothing, but who wants a system of only ports?  Likewise if I said, "the Wii U didn't sell", that doesn't mean that I think it literally sold 0 units.  It means that it didn't sell well.  Context matters.  "Crossgen games don't sell hardware" really means "crossgen games do not sell hardware nearly as well as a game that would require you to buy a new system".  The Vita had a lot of ports and crossplatform games.  It sold more than 0 units, but it didn't sell well.

I entered this discussion when curl-6 said something like the PS5 could sell 30m units per year if supply were enough.  I do not think PS5 demand is nearly so high.  In fact, I think supply will catch up with demand this year in spite of chip shortages.  There is this perception that the PS5 is in demand like the Wii was.  I don't think that is the case at all.  The Wii would continue to sell out, because demand was far greater than Nintendo anticipated.  The PS5 is selling out because of limited supply. 

Wii = excessive demand.  PS5 = not enough supply.  I'm using Economics terms.  These are two common ways for the price of a product to go up.  Either increase demand or decrease supply.  In a video game market either situation could cause an entire shipment to be bought and scalped at a higher price.  The PS5 doesn't have amazing demand like the Wii.  It has limited supply.

Not that many people would solely for them but getting a PS5 now for games like Elden Ring knowing that exclusives and 9 gen multiplats are on the way seems reasonable to me. Looking at the yearly chart index by 2015 gen 8 versions of games generally destroyed gen 7 versions in sales. When comparing the sales of Black Ops 3 on the PS4 and Xbox One to the PS3 and 360 it's clear that the vast majority of COD fans didn't wanna play the gimped versions so it should be a similar situation with Modern Warfare 2 so better versions of extremely popular games is a notable factor for many people in getting a new console. There's also the element of a portion of consumers not even knowing that there's a PS4 version of games like Elden Ring to consider.

I agree that demand isn't so high to make 30m in a year realistic but it getting a peak year of around 20m could happen when there is enough supply. Demand is already at a point where it would sell over 200k weekly if there was enough so perhaps not Wii levels but still pretty high.

Last edited by Norion - on 09 June 2022