Doesn't change the fact that actual launches leads to better sales in most countries mentioned. I am sure if we checked 2009 when ps2 launched in Brazil we would see a strange uptick in shipments for the ps2.

The fact is Sony could have held back the release date and got PS4 close to 130 million sales and Xbox would have waited using the we release when they do mantra they talked about when asked about the Xbox one release. with MS's belief that the benefits gained from a standalone console release and the fresh air it gives favours Sony more than them.

Now Nintendo while there are many factors that go into a Switch 2 release, in Nintendo's eyes one of if not the main questions to be answered in regards to release would by what date they have a feature ready that can be seen as a continuation of their history with innovation either by way of adding something new to the device or if not new is at the the very least a major enhancement.

The funny thing about the Game Boy is Nintendo was not only trying to kill it off in 1995, Yamauchi actually cancelled the Game Boy before they released it, lol. 

Just because the Switch isn’t the biggest selling console a year anymore doesn’t mean that Nintendo is in a weak position at all for 2023. It reminds me of back when the NES and the Game Boy were able to just hang tough and persevere through all kinds of competition - some of it being very successful like the Mega Drive/Genesis - because of such a robust library of games steadily arriving.

This year in 2023 is no exception: So far we have Metroid Prime Remastered, Advance Wars 1&2 and soon, Zelda, with Pikmin 4 in July. That is pretty jam-packed with Nintendo IPs for an aging system in what some consider a transition year - something I just don’t buy. Specifically, I think there are new Mario and Donkey Kong Switch games already pretty much finished. Nintendo has been able to manage releases very well this gen thanks to having to support only one system now, so it’s not about taking resources away from Switch 2 development. We know the next Mario Kart, Smash Bros, Animal Crossing and probably 3D Mario are all full-steam ahead on Switch 2 and have been for a while now, but this is what I think Nintendo’s schedule could look like that would pretty much guarantee a >15m fiscal year finish for Switch:

May - Zelda
June - A Direct with news, possibly with another GC shadow drop
July - Pikmin 4
August - ?
Sep - New Mario game (probably 2D) to coincide with the home release of the Mario movie around the same time
Oct - ?
Nov - another Pokemon remake (Gold & Silver?)
Dec - nothing
Jan - Mar quarter - New Donkey Kong game to go along with the DK theme park expansion next year

Consider that both the 3DS and PS2 had years after their peak where sales actually increased a little over the previous year. While I wouldn’t necessarily expect 18m+ for Switch next fiscal, it wouldn’t surprise me if sales were 16m-17m in this scenario. This would allow these games the opportunity to sell well throughout 2024, as Nintendo readies Switch 2 with a likely June '24 announcement followed by a WW September '24 release.

Obviously >140m is inevitable for the Switch at this point no matter what but if Nintendo puts in the effort and gives the Switch the twilight years it deserves, I believe it will result in the system passing 160m in the end.

I kind of think that does not really matters anymore at this point. Switch is probably the most successful console ever from a financial standpoint (I don't have the numbers, though; wouldn't mind taking a look at those), because it has had no formal pricing reduction since release, which is unheard of, and runs as a great consumer product even today mostly on the power of the software library (there are more powerful handheld devices than in 2017, for instance, so it is not based on the powerful handheld idea that some people clinged to in the past).

The forecast of 15m for this Fiscal Year seems to put the idea of a new revision or a price cut out of the picture. 140.6m by March 2024.

If the Switch 2 is coming in 2024 as I expect then it seems 160m would now be a tough ask. It'd likely be at around 145m shipped by September 2024 just before the successor launches.

Welp it's now confirmed that the Switch successor won't launch anytime before April 2024. It was pretty surprising the amount of people who thought the Switch successor would launch at the end of 2023 or early 2024. If that were the case we'd see a ton of rumors and leaks at this point and Nintendo would need to begin marketing for the system now if it had that release window which wouldn't be feasible to do just a few months after TOTK releases.

However, what has been surprising me is that Nintendo isn't gonna release a new Switch model/revision. Nintendo has shown in their past that they love milking successful consoles like crazy like the DS,3DS,Gameboy,ect.. and they would release a ton of new models for those consoles even AFTER the successor released like the Gameboy Micro and New 2DS Xl, and many of Nintendo's new models don't really add much new but they still release them. I'm surprised Nintendo isn't doing this with the Switch in the near future especially with sales declining. I think a TV only Switch would be very nice, Switch Oled Lite, or potentially a straight up Switch pro, there's many possibilities for Nintendo to do revisions its surprising Nintendo won't do that in the near future.

Imo, it's also looking like that the Switch's lifetime sales minimum will be 145M rather than 140M. Nintendo is forecasting a 15M FY which would place the Switch at close to 141M units by March 2024. While I do agree that the 15M goal is a bit optimistic, I'm expecting more like a 13-14M FY, that would still put the Switch in between 138-140M by March 2024. And the Switch definitely won't fizzle out super quickly after March 2024, even if the successor releases in Holiday 2024 it could still easily get 6-10M sales at the minimum after March 2024. Which places the Switch's sales minimum at 145M and definitely still has a good shot of outselling the PS2 depending on how Nintendo treats the Switch in its twilight years. So the race for the greatest selling console of all time will be very close.

2024 launch for Switch 2 has looked obvious for a while now. They're not releasing any more Switch models because the next one coming is the Switch 2 and they don't want to screw around with that. 

If Switch 2 was 2023, they always would have delayed Zelda: ToTK to launch alongside it, it would make no sense not to. 

Maybe after Switch 2 they might do something like a final definitive Switch Lite revision with a larger screen or something but other than that, think the current Switch is basically done. Switch OLED is the Switch Pro/New 3DS XL equivalent for the Switch. 

I agree with you on almost everything here, but do you really not expect 160m+ in this scenario?

Five million Switch's from April '24- September '24 is about a 195,000/week average. Applying just that average for the remaining two quarters puts Switch at 150m shipped by March of 2025, right around its 8th b-day.  With Nintendo obviously planning big enough to expect a 15m fiscal '24 (which appears to be completely software driven) I would expect Switch to manage 10m fiscal next year, falling right in line with the aforementioned scenario.

I believe the 3DS sold ~9m or so after the Switch launched; what do you think Switch's final numbers will be?

I expect switch to sell roughly 10m after the successor launches. Mainly because I don't think they will cut the price of the Switch to keep it selling. They'll push the next-gen adoption just like Sony dropped the PS4 hard.

3DS had a very large difference in price to the Switch (The 2DS less than a third of the Switch price) and a different library of games that weren't playable on the Switch. Switch 2 will be too close in price and play all of the Switch's games so the switch won't validate its existence post successor like the 3ds did, but will still have equal or better post-successor sales simply due to being a better selling console.