archbrix said:
I agree with you on almost everything here, but do you really not expect 160m+ in this scenario? Five million Switch's from April '24- September '24 is about a 195,000/week average. Applying just that average for the remaining two quarters puts Switch at 150m shipped by March of 2025, right around its 8th b-day. With Nintendo obviously planning big enough to expect a 15m fiscal '24 (which appears to be completely software driven) I would expect Switch to manage 10m fiscal next year, falling right in line with the aforementioned scenario. I believe the 3DS sold ~9m or so after the Switch launched; what do you think Switch's final numbers will be? |
I expect switch to sell roughly 10m after the successor launches. Mainly because I don't think they will cut the price of the Switch to keep it selling. They'll push the next-gen adoption just like Sony dropped the PS4 hard.
3DS had a very large difference in price to the Switch (The 2DS less than a third of the Switch price) and a different library of games that weren't playable on the Switch. Switch 2 will be too close in price and play all of the Switch's games so the switch won't validate its existence post successor like the 3ds did, but will still have equal or better post-successor sales simply due to being a better selling console.
