Just because the Switch isn’t the biggest selling console a year anymore doesn’t mean that Nintendo is in a weak position at all for 2023. It reminds me of back when the NES and the Game Boy were able to just hang tough and persevere through all kinds of competition - some of it being very successful like the Mega Drive/Genesis - because of such a robust library of games steadily arriving.
This year in 2023 is no exception: So far we have Metroid Prime Remastered, Advance Wars 1&2 and soon, Zelda, with Pikmin 4 in July. That is pretty jam-packed with Nintendo IPs for an aging system in what some consider a transition year - something I just don’t buy. Specifically, I think there are new Mario and Donkey Kong Switch games already pretty much finished. Nintendo has been able to manage releases very well this gen thanks to having to support only one system now, so it’s not about taking resources away from Switch 2 development. We know the next Mario Kart, Smash Bros, Animal Crossing and probably 3D Mario are all full-steam ahead on Switch 2 and have been for a while now, but this is what I think Nintendo’s schedule could look like that would pretty much guarantee a >15m fiscal year finish for Switch:
May - Zelda
June - A Direct with news, possibly with another GC shadow drop
July - Pikmin 4
August - ?
Sep - New Mario game (probably 2D) to coincide with the home release of the Mario movie around the same time
Oct - ?
Nov - another Pokemon remake (Gold & Silver?)
Dec - nothing
Jan - Mar quarter - New Donkey Kong game to go along with the DK theme park expansion next year
Consider that both the 3DS and PS2 had years after their peak where sales actually increased a little over the previous year. While I wouldn’t necessarily expect 18m+ for Switch next fiscal, it wouldn’t surprise me if sales were 16m-17m in this scenario. This would allow these games the opportunity to sell well throughout 2024, as Nintendo readies Switch 2 with a likely June '24 announcement followed by a WW September '24 release.
Obviously >140m is inevitable for the Switch at this point no matter what but if Nintendo puts in the effort and gives the Switch the twilight years it deserves, I believe it will result in the system passing 160m in the end.
Last edited by archbrix - on 08 May 2023
