The 15m forecast makes the launch of a revision very improbable, but not outright impossible. On the other hand, a price cut was never in the cards due to worldwide inflation, so value-added bundles were the only realistic option when it concerns the hardware price.

15m is a value that could mean just about anything at this point in time, because we don't know Nintendo's software lineup beyond Pikmin 4 in July. In addition to the unknown lineup, there are factors like how will the Mario movie affect Switch hardware and software sales and how big of a deal will Tears of the Kingdom be. 15m is not an optimistic figure and at the same time it isn't one that Nintendo is guaranteed to reach. If Nintendo is serious about getting more Switch consoles into households that already have one, then it's a prerequisite that they start offering Switch Lite with a bundled first party game on a permanent basis. But it's just as likely that they'll decide to let Switch coast off into the sunset without making any changes to their SKUs; after all, there are still no signs that Nintendo is making a new Super Mario Bros. game, so Nintendo is clearly not above wasting sales potential.

When it comes to post-successor sales, that's up in the air too. The logical assumption is that Nintendo will follow up Switch with a straight-forward upgrade, but such an assumption proved to be wrong before with the successful Wii. I don't rule it out that Nintendo changes gears for Switch from the current "let it coast" to active self-sabotage in hopes to boost sales of its successor.

At the present day, 160m+ lifetime remains a realistic goal for Switch. It's less likely than before because there are no indicators for a revision to happen in 2023, but at the same time we aren't seeing any signs of Nintendo wanting this console dead either. Maybe Nintendo's Q&A session with investors (English translation yet to be posted on their website) provides one or the other clue where they are going, but properly useful information has been rare in these briefings lately.

I don't think 15 mill is gonna happen, Furukawa doesn't sound very confident about it. 15 mill sounds like the number they can get to if everything breaks right and the Mario movie provides a sizable hardware boost, etc. etc. etc. 

My guess would be something more like 13.85m is going to be the actual total. 

They must have at least one big title for the fall, I'm going to guess a 2D Mario, but it's starting to look like the bulk of their dev resources have shifted over to the next system, which makes sense because it's going to require more dev resources than the Switch 1 launch did (no pre-made Zelda + Mario Kart this time plus a likely generational leap in hardware performance). 

I'd also guess the next big 3D Mario (Odyssey 2 or whatever the Odyssey team has been doing) got moved to Switch 2 because they know they are going to need system sellers and aren't going to have a new Zelda any time soon. 

So I'd guess 2D Mario, F-Zero GX Remastered, and a few other releases this year to go with Pikmin 4, then next year Switch 2 starts with Mario Kart Next and has a new Mario 3D game for holiday 2024. Metroid Prime 4 I have no idea, they still keep listing it as TBA, that could be this year too but that's really not going to impact a system's sales trajectory one way or another.

If they don't even have a Mario game this fall, then I have to think they have really, really moved everything to the next system and are really doubling/tripling down on making sure the next system launches as strongly as possible. 

It's going to be a special day in gaming when the ps2 is finally put of it's first place.

Noo way the switch wont outsell i, its 100%certain.

I can see 15M happening. Q4 FY2023 was only 30k down from Q4 of FY2022. Q1 of FY2023 was around 3.43, and I could see Q1 of 2024 being almost flat as well (between 3.2-3.6M I predict) because of Zelda and OLED models. Which means they'd need about 11.8-11.4M more. 

Even if it's holiday is the worst ever, that would likely be 6.5-7M or so. Putting only 4-5M as it's remainder. It's not necessarily going to be a slam dunk, but if they can get a really good piece of software out for the holiday, I think they can make it. I think Q2 and Q4 are going to be the hardest quarters. 

I mean Nintendo knows internally what they have for 2nd half 2023 already, so I wonder if maybe they are looking at a holiday lineup that is just OK and not really top tier. 

Because if they had a slam dunk holiday title, the hardware AND software forecasts being down quite a bit would be odd with Zelda: ToTK in the same fiscal year.

I wonder if most of their top end dev teams are on Switch 2 and have been for a while.  

Well, like I said I don't think it's going to be a slam dunk. But I think they may have a surprise or two up their sleeve to get to where they want. 

For example, Metroid prime 4 in Q4 and a new donkey Kong game in Q3 would both push some units, but wouldnt be such huge software sellers that would make up for the natural drop. I also think that Nintendo notices how people are using new hardware more, so even third party indies and whatnot are experiencing drops in software sales due to people wanting to use their newer devices. 

I think people expecting a new Mario or something are going to be disappointed. If it was a new Mario I think that Nintendo would be more confident in reaching their 15M goal. 

I think that they are holding back some software a Switch 2 crossgen launch though. Guess we will know more when they give us a new direct 

I don't honestly see Metroid doing that much, it's just never been a system seller ever, lets face it. Maybe a 3 million roof there. 

Donkey Kong I don't think is happening until the theme park area opens in Universal (Mario 3D World was released alongside basically Super Nintendo World, and it has clearly the same aesthetic as the Mario area). Although I'd be happy to be wrong on that. 

Metroid isn't going to sell much software, but it will sell systems. Not in the same way that a brand new Mario might, but in a different way and on a smaller scale. You don't have to be the best selling in order to sell systems. You just have to strike a chord with the right audience. For Metroid Prime fans, a remake may have been tantalizing, but Prime 4 would push them over the edge. Remember, those that enjoy Metroid Prime aren't completely overlapped with those that enjoy Metroid proper. 

I think Donkey Kong is happening because the only other game I could see coming out would be a new Mario, but I think they'd save that for the launch of a new system. Even if it's crossgen. Plus they'd be more confident in hitting their targets if they had a brand new Mario in their sleeve. Donkey Kong, however, is a middle weight. But I could see them making 2024 "year of the Donkey Kong" since it would be the anniversary of the DKC country series, and 10 years since the release of the last DKC game (not counting rereleases). 

For the record books, this is the actual Furukawa quote regarding the forecast for hardware shipments for the fiscal year ending March 2024:

"Given that recent hardware sales have declined by more than 20% year-on-year, a 16.5% decrease of 15 million units is not a goal that we will be able to achieve easily."

A6 in this link: https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/pdf/2023/230510e.pdf

Which is a notable difference to the loosely translated "Reaching 15m is a stretch.", because "not easy" is not the same as "hard".

Aside from this, there isn't really anything worth of note in the document. Things that are mentioned or refered to are things everyone knows or expects already anyway, such as:

1. Nintendo's focus during this fiscal year is maintaining Switch momentum.

2. There won't be next gen hardware this fiscal year.

3. There are currently no plans for a hardware price cut. It's always ambiguous like that, because announcing a price cut in advance is bad business.

4. The SMB movie is having a positive effect on sales and playtimes of Mario games on Switch.

5. Tears of the Kingdom is a big deal.

Do we really know if the movie had an actual impact on switch sales?