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Doctor_MG on 10 May 2023
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Soundwave said:

I don't think 15 mill is gonna happen, Furukawa doesn't sound very confident about it. 15 mill sounds like the number they can get to if everything breaks right and the Mario movie provides a sizable hardware boost, etc. etc. etc. 

My guess would be something more like 13.85m is going to be the actual total. 

They must have at least one big title for the fall, I'm going to guess a 2D Mario, but it's starting to look like the bulk of their dev resources have shifted over to the next system, which makes sense because it's going to require more dev resources than the Switch 1 launch did (no pre-made Zelda + Mario Kart this time plus a likely generational leap in hardware performance). 

I'd also guess the next big 3D Mario (Odyssey 2 or whatever the Odyssey team has been doing) got moved to Switch 2 because they know they are going to need system sellers and aren't going to have a new Zelda any time soon. 

So I'd guess 2D Mario, F-Zero GX Remastered, and a few other releases this year to go with Pikmin 4, then next year Switch 2 starts with Mario Kart Next and has a new Mario 3D game for holiday 2024. Metroid Prime 4 I have no idea, they still keep listing it as TBA, that could be this year too but that's really not going to impact a system's sales trajectory one way or another.

If they don't even have a Mario game this fall, then I have to think they have really, really moved everything to the next system and are really doubling/tripling down on making sure the next system launches as strongly as possible. 

I can see 15M happening. Q4 FY2023 was only 30k down from Q4 of FY2022. Q1 of FY2023 was around 3.43, and I could see Q1 of 2024 being almost flat as well (between 3.2-3.6M I predict) because of Zelda and OLED models. Which means they'd need about 11.8-11.4M more. 

Even if it's holiday is the worst ever, that would likely be 6.5-7M or so. Putting only 4-5M as it's remainder. It's not necessarily going to be a slam dunk, but if they can get a really good piece of software out for the holiday, I think they can make it. I think Q2 and Q4 are going to be the hardest quarters.