The 15m forecast makes the launch of a revision very improbable, but not outright impossible. On the other hand, a price cut was never in the cards due to worldwide inflation, so value-added bundles were the only realistic option when it concerns the hardware price.
15m is a value that could mean just about anything at this point in time, because we don't know Nintendo's software lineup beyond Pikmin 4 in July. In addition to the unknown lineup, there are factors like how will the Mario movie affect Switch hardware and software sales and how big of a deal will Tears of the Kingdom be. 15m is not an optimistic figure and at the same time it isn't one that Nintendo is guaranteed to reach. If Nintendo is serious about getting more Switch consoles into households that already have one, then it's a prerequisite that they start offering Switch Lite with a bundled first party game on a permanent basis. But it's just as likely that they'll decide to let Switch coast off into the sunset without making any changes to their SKUs; after all, there are still no signs that Nintendo is making a new Super Mario Bros. game, so Nintendo is clearly not above wasting sales potential.
When it comes to post-successor sales, that's up in the air too. The logical assumption is that Nintendo will follow up Switch with a straight-forward upgrade, but such an assumption proved to be wrong before with the successful Wii. I don't rule it out that Nintendo changes gears for Switch from the current "let it coast" to active self-sabotage in hopes to boost sales of its successor.
At the present day, 160m+ lifetime remains a realistic goal for Switch. It's less likely than before because there are no indicators for a revision to happen in 2023, but at the same time we aren't seeing any signs of Nintendo wanting this console dead either. Maybe Nintendo's Q&A session with investors (English translation yet to be posted on their website) provides one or the other clue where they are going, but properly useful information has been rare in these briefings lately.
Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV will outsell Super Smash Bros. Brawl. I was wrong.
