Nintendo still haven't played their Switch price cut card yet. Nintendo isn't far away from releasing the Wii Mini launch aligned. But I'm still not sure if they make a Switch price cut, because Wii U didn't get it either.

Tbh, they should never cut the price. People are paying $350 for an iPad for their kids, the switch is well worth the $299. I actually think the ps5 and series X are under priced. They are selling out at $600+ scalper prices. The smartphone and tablet market has made it okay to pay $700+ for an entertainment device. 

also I do expect switch to fall similar to the DS, and it has already fallen behind DS numbers. 

So, you expect Switch sales to drop by 60% in 2023? DS sales went from 20.5 million in 2010 to 8.7 million in 2011 - and that was with the 3DS releasing early in the year. The Switch has no successor in sight yet and 2023 will see the release of Breath of the Wild 2 and has Mario Kart DLC waves scheduled until the end of the year already, which points to Nintendo fully supporting the platform all throughout next year.

Big missconception. An iPad is useful for studying, watching/streaming videos and movies, listen music, browsing, using social media, communicating and more often than not people don't even use it for gaming. 

Consoles in other hand are just dedicated gaming machines and is more than anything a luxury product with no practical utility whatsoever

It's not surprising Apple sells every year more iPad units than some consoles can sell lifetime

Your next point is "But but but but... a smartphone can do all that!", precisely why Tabelet market never really took over and has been plummeting in the last 6-7 years, smartphones are rendering them redundant, but even a redundant portable computer is a more useful gift than a console 

People are getting it backwards. The Wii peak was later than every other Nintendo home console to date (NES aside). The NES has the appearance of a later peak, but this has more to do with Nintendo’s staggered launch/distribution practices than the actual market reaction. It released only in Japan in 83, certain cities outside of Japan by 86, most western cities by 89, and then fully available in 91-92, nearly a decade after launch; I mean, you could get an NES in other regions in 86, 87, but you’d be paying multiple times the official price; but I’m getting away from the point. The other Nintendo home consoles peaked in their first or second fiscal year, Wii in its third. Handhelds have are a different story, and that's because the word-of-mouth marketing is different in nature - getting a family console is an easier sell than getting all members of the family their own handheld - and multiplayer on a home console is a faster sell to friends than watching your friends/co-workers play Mario Kart all the time on lunch breaks.

The Switch kind of benefits from both, which makes it interesting to see where it will go, because it might not be as predictable as just smashing the two together. But it’s not selling the same way the Wii did, or any Nintendo home console, and probably not the same as any of the handhelds either. What happens to a family with Switch as the home console when everyone goes their own separate ways? New roommates, new families, and some will be newly introduced to the Switch. Another scenario are Home console Switch families that will eventually see different members wanting their own console. This could mean a very long tail for the Switch sales trajectory - and it might mean a very positive push for the Switch 2 if Nintendo can get it out fast enough and with the platform being a continuation (like a new Windows, iOS, Linux, or MacOS) rather than a flat out slash, burn, and reset from scratch generation. If Nintendo doesn’t kill off Switch 1 support to make way for Switch 2, the two could sell beside one another for several years. There’s no reason in this era that games can’t have tiered performances, PC games have done that since the 1990s, and it’s a lot more than two tiers for the most part.

With price cut I meant Swith Lite $99 and regular model $199. OLED model $249 someday. GameCube and Wii Mini also got a $99 price tag.

I'm aware that Nintendo cut the price for the regular model in Europe from 349 to 299 EUR. That's a small price cut

Those prices are unlikely to happen, the days of $99 handhelds and $199 consoles are over outside of temporary deals or end of life stock clearing.

That is false. The price was 329€ and went down to 299€ because of inflation. It was a price adjustment. A price cut like what you're sugesting is made with the intention of increasing sales but reduces profit.

I agree. 99$/€ will never be close to profitable. If you take the sellers share, shipping and distribution as well as the large amount of components needed for the lite, 99$ will only ever happen if the thing is on clearance. You can reduce cost only to a certain point. Hardware does simply not move fast enough these days.

In addition you need to take inflation into consideration. 100€ in 2000 are 134€ today.

If Nintendo hits its forecast then Switch will be at 128.65 million units by next March.

In the last three fiscal years, PS4's low tail sales amounted to 20.2 million units (13.5+5.7+1.0).

Switch closing just at 140 million units is a pretty unlikely scenario IMO.

It's very likely we are looking at a >150M console.