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Forums - Sales Discussion - If Nintendo Switch sales drops like wii... (in 2 analyzis)

OneTime said:

As long as you can’t easily buy a PS5 or XBox, the Switch will just keep on selling…

^ this.



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JWeinCom said:

I'm confused... Didn't it already not follow the Wii's sales trajectory?

It might theoretically do so now though. The Wii started dropping early, that's why it's yearly drops were horrible. If the Switch starts dropping similarly from now on it wouldn't be anywhere close to as horrible. That said it will likely have better legs.



Agente42 said:
jonathanalis said:

Everyone considered the wii sales drop to be too harsh. In my mind, if switch drops like wii, it couldnt manage to get to 140M.

So, I was navigating in the yearly hardware comparison chart (https://www.vgchartz.com/tools/hw_date.php?reg=Global&ending=Yearly)

I noticed Wii sales peak year (2008) was slightly behind switch's 2021, but I rounded to million floor for easier math, so I consider them the same. 

And I did the math for Wii sales rounded down: +21M (2009), +17M (2010), +11M (2011) + 5M (2012) + 2M (2013) + 4M (rest+leftovers)=60M.

If switch keep this sales trajectory as wii 2009 was switch 2021, it will end above 160M.

It still manage to became the best selling console ever, according to this analyzis.

Then I made another analyzis, considering aligned peak years:

Switch peak year (2020) sold 1.175 higher than wii's (2008).

And this ratio predicted surprising well the 2021 switch: 21.05M (2009 wii) *1.175 = 24.7M, really close to 24.8M from 2021 switch.

So, I kept this ratio for upcoming years for switch yearly sales.

I got to around 47M more sales for switch, starting from 2022.

So, Around 150M.

Anyway, Wii didnt drop as hard as I had in my mind.

Disclaimer: Yeah, Switch will probably follow a different drop curve than wii's, it is just a thought experiment.

On market analysis,  a good analysis needs context. Macro and micro. Why switch will fall a cliff? Wii did because of lack of games and deviation of production of the style of games.

Lack of games - Nintendo locks the big RPGs launch of Switch - Pandora Tower, The Last Story, Xenoblade in Japan. Lock other Japanese games ( the giant killer game, disaster, etc). All this game may help momentum, but stay only on Japan or have a late minor launch. 

Deviation of the style of games-  Nintendo launched games more for the niche Nintendo crowd and abandoned arcade games for expandable consumers. Metroid Other M and Skyward Sword are good examples of this, Nintendo tries to turn the expandable market into Nintendo core consumers, but some expandable consumers as former gamers and these former gamers go out of Nintendo because of these products back then in N64 and Gamecube. 

Four pipelines of production - Nintendo has four consoles and these four pipelines make the launch of games of Wii suffers. 

The peak of HD television - Minor effect, but in 2012 - 2013, the HD have consolidation in all major markets.

Microsoft and Sony adjusted HD production, fix the stationary console problems, and have all major third support.

Whats the context of this downfall of Switch? 

Giving the context was never my point.

Is just like: lets suppose for an absurdity, switch ends up dropping its sales curve like wii's. Then these would be the numbers.

In reality, there is no reason to expect switch will drop like wii. I cant imagine a context where this happen. So, this prediction serves as a lower bound for switch sales.



Never thought of it like that. Guess some drop is coming but will Nintendo be able to put out a good successor?



ShadowLink93 said:

The drop from peak year to following year was 5.41m on Wii (25.95m to 20.54m), the Switch needs 23.41m this fiscal year to drop the same amount.

There is a possibility that Switch's drop might be worse, mostly due to it's supply problems.

Are you updating this one ?



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jonathanalis said:
Agente42 said:

On market analysis,  a good analysis needs context. Macro and micro. Why switch will fall a cliff? Wii did because of lack of games and deviation of production of the style of games.

Lack of games - Nintendo locks the big RPGs launch of Switch - Pandora Tower, The Last Story, Xenoblade in Japan. Lock other Japanese games ( the giant killer game, disaster, etc). All this game may help momentum, but stay only on Japan or have a late minor launch. 

Deviation of the style of games-  Nintendo launched games more for the niche Nintendo crowd and abandoned arcade games for expandable consumers. Metroid Other M and Skyward Sword are good examples of this, Nintendo tries to turn the expandable market into Nintendo core consumers, but some expandable consumers as former gamers and these former gamers go out of Nintendo because of these products back then in N64 and Gamecube. 

Four pipelines of production - Nintendo has four consoles and these four pipelines make the launch of games of Wii suffers. 

The peak of HD television - Minor effect, but in 2012 - 2013, the HD have consolidation in all major markets.

Microsoft and Sony adjusted HD production, fix the stationary console problems, and have all major third support.

Whats the context of this downfall of Switch? 

Giving the context was never my point.

Is just like: lets suppose for an absurdity, switch ends up dropping its sales curve like wii's. Then these would be the numbers.

In reality, there is no reason to expect switch will drop like wii. I cant imagine a context where this happen. So, this prediction serves as a lower bound for switch sales.

Umm I’m not sure that’s what sales curve means. Switch declining in years 6-8 by a similar amount as Wii in years 3-5 isn’t comparing sales curves, it needs to be similar points in time.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

yo33331 said:

Are you updating this one ?

Despite the drop 23.06m is still extremely high and a very good year, just goes to show how phenomenal FY 20-21 was.

Last edited by ShadowLink93 - on 14 May 2022

Kakadu18 said:

The Wii drop is considered harsh because of it's early peak. It started dropping already early into it's life. Actually these kinds of drops are exactly what I expect for the Switch in the next few years.
Roughly 21mil in 2022, 15-17mil in 2023 and 10-12mil in 2024.

Looks like 21mil in 2022 is likely to happen. Let's see how the rest plays out. With these numbers the Switch would definitely top the PS2 with a few million units sold after 2024.



The Switch is in a much better position than the Wii at the end of its lifespan. While there's a big power gap, it has a de facto monopoly of the dedicated handheld market and its main competitors struggle to even show up at stores with all of those shortages. I don't think Nintendo has any hurry to replace the Switch like they did with the Wii.



You know it deserves the GOTY.

Come join The 2018 Obscure Game Monthly Review Thread.

The drop was 5.76m (20%) which was larger tha Wii's drop from it's peak year but there were unique circumstances with supply and transportation. Nintendo forecast a 2.06m drop (9%) this fiscal year which will be far softer than Wii's 2nd drop of 5.46m (20.54m to 15.08m or 27%).