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Forums - Sales Discussion - If Nintendo Switch sales drops like wii... (in 2 analyzis)

The Wii's new games dried up in its later life. We still have a lot of announced upcoming games coming our way in the next year or so.



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Nintendo still have many more revisions to go and most importantly the fixed Joycon version. I'd say Switch will easily reach 200 million at this rate. Also Pokemon Arceus has finally changed the formula after 25 years, I bet fans will buy two copies each to show their gratitude.



Some strange comparisons for sure. But yes, comparing to the Wii will always make a console have better legs and lead to optimistic analyses.



refutableport said:

Nintendo still have many more revisions to go and most importantly the fixed Joycon version. I'd say Switch will easily reach 200 million at this rate. Also Pokemon Arceus has finally changed the formula after 25 years, I bet fans will buy two copies each to show their gratitude.

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jonathanalis said:

Everyone considered the wii sales drop to be too harsh. In my mind, if switch drops like wii, it couldnt manage to get to 140M.

So, I was navigating in the yearly hardware comparison chart (https://www.vgchartz.com/tools/hw_date.php?reg=Global&ending=Yearly)

I noticed Wii sales peak year (2008) was slightly behind switch's 2021, but I rounded to million floor for easier math, so I consider them the same. 

And I did the math for Wii sales rounded down: +21M (2009), +17M (2010), +11M (2011) + 5M (2012) + 2M (2013) + 4M (rest+leftovers)=60M.

If switch keep this sales trajectory as wii 2009 was switch 2021, it will end above 160M.

It still manage to became the best selling console ever, according to this analyzis.

Then I made another analyzis, considering aligned peak years:

Switch peak year (2020) sold 1.175 higher than wii's (2008).

And this ratio predicted surprising well the 2021 switch: 21.05M (2009 wii) *1.175 = 24.7M, really close to 24.8M from 2021 switch.

So, I kept this ratio for upcoming years for switch yearly sales.

I got to around 47M more sales for switch, starting from 2022.

So, Around 150M.

Anyway, Wii didnt drop as hard as I had in my mind.

Disclaimer: Yeah, Switch will probably follow a different drop curve than wii's, it is just a thought experiment.

On market analysis,  a good analysis needs context. Macro and micro. Why switch will fall a cliff? Wii did because of lack of games and deviation of production of the style of games.

Lack of games - Nintendo locks the big RPGs launch of Switch - Pandora Tower, The Last Story, Xenoblade in Japan. Lock other Japanese games ( the giant killer game, disaster, etc). All this game may help momentum, but stay only on Japan or have a late minor launch. 

Deviation of the style of games-  Nintendo launched games more for the niche Nintendo crowd and abandoned arcade games for expandable consumers. Metroid Other M and Skyward Sword are good examples of this, Nintendo tries to turn the expandable market into Nintendo core consumers, but some expandable consumers as former gamers and these former gamers go out of Nintendo because of these products back then in N64 and Gamecube. 

Four pipelines of production - Nintendo has four consoles and these four pipelines make the launch of games of Wii suffers. 

The peak of HD television - Minor effect, but in 2012 - 2013, the HD have consolidation in all major markets.

Microsoft and Sony adjusted HD production, fix the stationary console problems, and have all major third support.

Whats the context of this downfall of Switch? 



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refutableport said:

Nintendo still have many more revisions to go and most importantly the fixed Joycon version. I'd say Switch will easily reach 200 million at this rate. Also Pokemon Arceus has finally changed the formula after 25 years, I bet fans will buy two copies each to show their gratitude.

The current Joycons are already improved way less likely to drift than the ones produced in 2017-2019.



Kakadu18 said:
refutableport said:

Nintendo still have many more revisions to go and most importantly the fixed Joycon version. I'd say Switch will easily reach 200 million at this rate. Also Pokemon Arceus has finally changed the formula after 25 years, I bet fans will buy two copies each to show their gratitude.

The current Joycons are already improved way less likely to drift than the ones produced in 2017-2019.

That's amazing, they have nearly fixed the issue in 2022. How ever will we thank Nintendo.



There's of course little chance this will happen. But if it does, Nintendo will still be swimming in money. Unless Nintendo makes some really dumb decisions out of the gate with the Switch 2 (we're talking Wii U era mistakes), it's all but guaranteed to be a home run. And so if the Switch hypothetically has a large drop in a year or so it really won't be a problem. The software and online will still sell to more than make up for declining hardware sales.
Honestly, we might see Switch 2 peak early like the Wii did. Switch 2 could still be a homerun but have a sharp cliff. I think that's more likely than a sharp cliff for the Switch.



Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 144 million (was 73, then 96, then 113 million, then 125 million)

PS5: 105 million Xbox Series S/X: 60 million

PS4: 120 mil (was 100 then 130 million, then 122 million) Xbox One: 51 mil (was 50 then 55 mil)

3DS: 75.5 mil (was 73, then 77 million)

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brute said:

Wii's drop is considered harsh as it peaked in year 2 vs later on.

That's not accurate for two reasons. First, because the Wii peaked in its third year (FY March 2008-2009). Second, because the other Nintendo home consoles peaked before the Wii did.

The Wii peaked Year 3, FY April 2008-2009 at 25.95m
The N64 peaked Year 2, FY April 1997-1998 at 9.42m 
The GC peaked Year 1/2* FY April 2002-2003 at 5.76m
The Wii U peaked year 1, FY April 2012-2013 at 3.45m

*GC launched in most countries in May 2002, but in certain countries during late 2001.

Last edited by Jumpin - on 05 February 2022

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I'm confused... Didn't it already not follow the Wii's sales trajectory?