People are getting it backwards. The Wii peak was later than every other Nintendo home console to date (NES aside). The NES has the appearance of a later peak, but this has more to do with Nintendo’s staggered launch/distribution practices than the actual market reaction. It released only in Japan in 83, certain cities outside of Japan by 86, most western cities by 89, and then fully available in 91-92, nearly a decade after launch; I mean, you could get an NES in other regions in 86, 87, but you’d be paying multiple times the official price; but I’m getting away from the point. The other Nintendo home consoles peaked in their first or second fiscal year, Wii in its third. Handhelds have are a different story, and that's because the word-of-mouth marketing is different in nature - getting a family console is an easier sell than getting all members of the family their own handheld - and multiplayer on a home console is a faster sell to friends than watching your friends/co-workers play Mario Kart all the time on lunch breaks.
The Switch kind of benefits from both, which makes it interesting to see where it will go, because it might not be as predictable as just smashing the two together. But it’s not selling the same way the Wii did, or any Nintendo home console, and probably not the same as any of the handhelds either. What happens to a family with Switch as the home console when everyone goes their own separate ways? New roommates, new families, and some will be newly introduced to the Switch. Another scenario are Home console Switch families that will eventually see different members wanting their own console. This could mean a very long tail for the Switch sales trajectory - and it might mean a very positive push for the Switch 2 if Nintendo can get it out fast enough and with the platform being a continuation (like a new Windows, iOS, Linux, or MacOS) rather than a flat out slash, burn, and reset from scratch generation. If Nintendo doesn’t kill off Switch 1 support to make way for Switch 2, the two could sell beside one another for several years. There’s no reason in this era that games can’t have tiered performances, PC games have done that since the 1990s, and it’s a lot more than two tiers for the most part.
I describe myself as a little dose of toxic masculinity.
