Everyone considered the wii sales drop to be too harsh. In my mind, if switch drops like wii, it couldnt manage to get to 140M.

So, I was navigating in the yearly hardware comparison chart (https://www.vgchartz.com/tools/hw_date.php?reg=Global&ending=Yearly)

I noticed Wii sales peak year (2008) was slightly behind switch's 2021, but I rounded to million floor for easier math, so I consider them the same. 

And I did the math for Wii sales rounded down: +21M (2009), +17M (2010), +11M (2011) + 5M (2012) + 2M (2013) + 4M (rest+leftovers)=60M.

If switch keep this sales trajectory as wii 2009 was switch 2021, it will end above 160M.

It still manage to became the best selling console ever, according to this analyzis.

Then I made another analyzis, considering aligned peak years:

Switch peak year (2020) sold 1.175 higher than wii's (2008).

And this ratio predicted surprising well the 2021 switch: 21.05M (2009 wii) *1.175 = 24.7M, really close to 24.8M from 2021 switch.

So, I kept this ratio for upcoming years for switch yearly sales.

I got to around 47M more sales for switch, starting from 2022.

So, Around 150M.

Anyway, Wii didnt drop as hard as I had in my mind.

Disclaimer: Yeah, Switch will probably follow a different drop curve than wii's, it is just a thought experiment.

Wii's drop is considered harsh as it peaked in year 2 vs later on.

It kinda did tho, it was send to the oblivion after 2010, when the PS3 became relevant

Tbh, Kinect/move and the cheaper “more new gen” alternatives of the ps3/360 imo had an affect on Wii sales.

The switch advantage is that it’s got the 3DS/DS people and the Wii/WII u people and more to sell to. It’s currently million behind the DS, my expectation is that it will see a hard drop soon, and follow the DS curve but we shall see. The video game industry is the biggest it has ever been.

The Wii drop is considered harsh because of it's early peak. It started dropping already early into it's life. Actually these kinds of drops are exactly what I expect for the Switch in the next few years.
Roughly 21mil in 2022, 15-17mil in 2023 and 10-12mil in 2024.

The drop from peak year to following year was 5.41m on Wii (25.95m to 20.54m), the Switch needs 23.41m this fiscal year to drop the same amount.

There is a possibility that Switch's drop might be worse, mostly due to it's supply problems.

21 million for this year would be a great hold and would mean Switch would be only the second console ever to achieve 20 million for four individual years (Shipments not vgchartz sell through).

honestly the supply issue wont be the cause of the drop being worse

Wii's drop was big but it seemed enormous because other console had a second life during that gen and Wii didn't. Switch still is supply constrained and Nintendo has the cards to make it stay as long as they want. It really all depends on that. They could sell 160 millions if they want to but also 140 if they just want to move on.

As long as you can’t easily buy a PS5 or XBox, the Switch will just keep on selling…