By using this site, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our Terms of Use. Close

Forums - Sales Discussion - Famitsu sales: Week 1, 2022 - (27th Dec - 2nd Jan)

siebensus4 said:

Splatoon 2 reached 4 million. That's two times more than Breath of the Wild (1.9m) or almost two times more than Super Mario Odyssey (2.3m).

Splatoon 2 is in the same league as Mario Kart 8 (4.3m), Pokemon Sword/Shield (4.2m) or Super Smash Bros. Ultimate (4.6m) now.

I expect awesome numbers from Splatoon 3 in Japan. Not so sure if it can push hardware that much so late in its life cycle.

Splatoon 1 was locked behind Wii U, which bombed.

Splatoon 2 was basically just Splatoon 1.5, didn't have anything truly new until the expansion in regards to engaging new customers (people that didn't play Splatoon 1 because of it's multiplayer focus weren't suddenly going to get 2 because it has more maps and guns). Even then, it's an expansion which is a barrier since it isn't built into the full game.

Splatoon 3 appears to FINALLY be a narrative game, which will get holdouts like me to buy it whereas I had no interest in Splatoon 2 being a basically multiplayer-only game. Because of this, I could see Splatoon 3 being the best selling and most hardware driving Splatoon game yet despite launching so late in Switch's life. It appeals to both the multiplayer and story-obsessrd crowds.



Around the Network
zorg1000 said:
Metallox said:

So it's all over for Switch in Japan? 

All over meaning what?

Why is it so hard for you guys to accept that Switch has peaked in Japan?

Lol, I accepted the Switch peaked there in June of last year, that's not what I meant. I'm just wondering whether interest for the console has tanked hard altogether. Kakadu has given a good reason.



My bet with The_Liquid_Laser: I think the Switch won't surpass the PS2 as the best selling system of all time. If it does, I'll play a game of a list that The_Liquid_Laser will provide, I will have to play it for 50 hours or complete it, whatever comes first. 

BotW at #11, that's unexpected to say the least.



Kakadu18 said:

BotW at #11, that's unexpected to say the least.

And at #14 (one is with the Expansion Pass). If combined it would have been in the top 10.



SW-3707-5131-3911

Metallox said:
zorg1000 said:

All over meaning what?

Why is it so hard for you guys to accept that Switch has peaked in Japan?

Lol, I accepted the Switch peaked there in June of last year, that's not what I meant. I'm just wondering whether interest for the console has tanked hard altogether. Kakadu has given a good reason.

Gotcha, it’s still going to sell really well this year, ~4-4.5 million is still above 2017/2018 and right around 2019 numbers, and Switch was by no means doing poorly in those years.

Even if it does start having large YoY declines going forward it should still hit 30m.

2022-4m (27m ltd)

2023-2m (29m ltd)

2024 and beyond-1m (30m ltd)

And that’s kind of a low ball estimate that assumes Switch 2 releases in 2023 and Switch basically dies right away. It could very feasibly add a few million more on top of that and get right around GB/DS sales.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

Around the Network
kirby007 said:
Kakadu18 said:

What are you talking about dude?

You think the OLED is going to be the only upgrade before a switch 2?

I think the chip shortage killed any chance for a new upgrade. They are going to have a hard time producing enough Switch units as is. Launching any new hardware in the current climate would be fool hardy. You can't sell what you can't produce.



Now that we've got the split for the numbers, it's time to conclude the year 2021 and start the year 2022.

2021 finished with total sales of 5.579m, so a good bit above the 5m target I had set one year ago. Of course, it's not all positive concerning this result, because during mid-2021 it looked like 6m could be achieved. 2021 won 18 of the 26 first half comparisons, but then only 4 of 26 comparisons in the latter half. This turned a 334k lead into a 377k deficit. Ultimately, 2021 was a year that overachieved at first and then began to underachieve more and more as time went on. Not even a new hardware SKU was able to prevent the loss. In the big picture though, 2021 was an excellent year of sales that ranks among the highest ones all-time in Japan.

Week2020 Weekly2020 Cumulative2021 Weekly2021 CumulativeDifference WeeklyDifference Cumulative
1284.827284.827312.121312.12127.29427.294
2116.301401.128167.596479.71751.29578.589
396.458497.586170.691650.40874.233152.822
467.987565.573110.811761.21942.824195.646
575.922641.495114.170875.38938.248233.894
6100.961741.45688.485963.874-12.476222.418
780.312821.948109.6151.073.48929.303251.541
841.490863.25874.2981.147.78732.808284.529
953.098916.35678.0491.225.83624.951309.480
1050.585967.94189.8271.315.66339.242347.722
1157.2741.025.21572.6101.388.37315.336363.158
12392.5761.417.79189.1041.477.477-303.47259.686
13282.5611.700.352267.4971.744.974-15.06444.622
14154.6401.854.992135.0761.880.050-19.56425.058
1525.3131.880.30596.2591.976.30970.94696.004
1627.8741.908.17994.0572.070.36666.183162.187
17107.1042.015.284105.8332.176.199-1.271160.915
18115.0422.130.326165.2682.341.46750.226211.141
1942.4202.172.74670.7602.412.22728.340239.481
2038.3802.211.12695.4112.507.63857.031296.512
2152.5572.263.68399.1182.606.75646.561343.073
22107.5932.371.27671.1482.677.904-36.445306.628
2368.1922.439.46897.2082.775.11229.016335.644
2455.1872.494.65578.3172.853.42923.130358.774
2578.4282.573.08375.0772.928.506-3.351355.423
2693.7992.666.88272.9513.001.457-20.848334.575
2752.2502.719.13284.4943.085.95132.244366.819
2896.8792.816.01169.2833.155.234-27.596339.223
29113.1972.929.20864.1073.219.341-49.090290.133
30125.2313.054.43969.7383.289.079-55.493234.640
3186.6053.141.04462.8653.351.944-23.740210.900
32173.3383.314.38272.7733.424.717-100.565110.335
33148.6993.463.08189.7323.514.449-58.96751.368
3470.1293.533.21072.5273.586.9762.39853.766
3578.7733.611.98363.2543.650.230-15.51938.247
3677.6113.689.59460.9423.711.172-16.66921.578
3783.9203.773.51467.1143.778.286-16.8064.772
38110.0293.883.54340.0683.818.354-69.961-65.189
3970.5423.954.08546.2973.864.651-24.245-89.434
4091.0934.045.17840.4633.905.114-50.630-140.064
41108.5754.153.753179.8514.084.96571.276-68.788
4295.8524.249.60572.9444.157.909-22.908-91.696
4364.7684.314.373108.1224.266.03143.354-48.342
4486.9854.401.35874.8034.340.834-12.182-60.524
45139.2004.540.55890.5174.431.351-48.683-109.207
46116.2674.656.82587.2674.518.618-29.000-138.207
47179.1434.835.968167.7784.686.396-11.365-149.572
48145.1784.981.146122.5734.808.969-22.605-172.177
49204.6225.185.768202.9375.011.906-1.685-173.862
50229.6985.415.466192.3355.204.241-37.363-211.225
51263.3045.678.770176.8325.381.073-86.472-297.697
52278.1735.956.943198.0545.579.127-80.119-377.816

Now knowing that we are looking at the beginning of the saturation phase in Japan, it's clear from the outset that 2022 won't come close to 2021's sales. This year will build a pretty big deficit in Q1 already, due to the combination of reduced momentum going into the year and no guaranteed blockbuster game releasing during this timeframe. There's a chance that Pokémon Legends Arceus (releases later this month) is a big deal, but it's possible all the same that it sells numbers closer to other Pokémon spinoffs rather than the main series.

What we can say for sure is that Splatoon 3 will be huge, so it will likely serve as an incentive for existing Switch owners to upgrade to an OLED model. The comparisons are much easier in the second half, so the odds for 2022 to be more or less flat year over year for the final six months aren't too shabby. It's unlikely that we'll see another new Switch SKU launching in 2022, but all the price cut options remain for Nintendo, so a severe loss in momentum could be countered easily. However, price cuts are usually done on a global level, so Nintendo might just accept declining sales in Japan in 2022 like they have accepted merely good sales in Europe for the past several years.

All that being said, the target for Switch in 2022 should be to exceed 4m units. Above 4.5m would be great, below 3.5m would be disappointing. A YTD deficit of 500k+ won't take long until it will be reached. I don't expect Splatoon 3 to release in the first half of 2022, so by week 26 2022 will be deep in the hole. But as mentioned above, the second half will be filled with much gentler comparisons.

Week2020 Weekly2020 Cumulative2021 Weekly2021 CumulativeDifference WeeklyDifference Cumulative
1312.121312.121195.926195.926-116.195-116.195
2167.596479.717
3170.691650.408
4110.811761.219
5114.170875.389
688.485963.874
7109.6151.073.489
874.2981.147.787
978.0491.225.836
1089.8271.315.663
1172.6101.388.373
1289.1041.477.477
13267.4971.744.974
14135.0761.880.050
1596.2591.976.309
1694.0572.070.366
17105.8332.176.199
18165.2682.341.467
1970.7602.412.227
2095.4112.507.638
2199.1182.606.756
2271.1482.677.904
2397.2082.775.112
2478.3172.853.429
2575.0772.928.506
2672.9513.001.457
2784.4943.085.951
2869.2833.155.234
2964.1073.219.341
3069.7383.289.079
3162.8653.351.944
3272.7733.424.717
3389.7323.514.449
3472.5273.586.976
3563.2543.650.230
3660.9423.711.172
3767.1143.778.286
3840.0683.818.354
3946.2973.864.651
4040.4633.905.114
41179.8514.084.965
4272.9444.157.909
43108.1224.266.031
4474.8034.340.834
4590.5174.431.351
4687.2674.518.618
47167.7784.686.396
48122.5734.808.969
49202.9375.011.906
50192.3355.204.241
51176.8325.381.073
52198.0545.579.127


Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Shipments

30m will be tough for Switch still. 4m this year makes 27m due to Splatoon 3. After that not many Japan centric games to be released, and news of the Switch 2 will be rolling in.

It will crawl to 29.5m in my opinion.

3DS also hit 20-23m relatively fast and then crawled to its current position of 24.5m.



Farsala said:

30m will be tough for Switch still. 4m this year makes 27m due to Splatoon 3. After that not many Japan centric games to be released, and news of the Switch 2 will be rolling in.

It will crawl to 29.5m in my opinion.

3DS also hit 20-23m relatively fast and then crawled to its current position of 24.5m.

Idk, 2.5m from 2023 onward seems kinda low.

And that’s not true about 3DS though, it sped it’s way to 15m in 3 years then crawled it’s way to 20-23m over the next 4 years.

NSW on the other hand sold a little over 11m in its first 3 years then sold another 11m+ over the next 2 years.

3DS vs NSW

Year1-4.3m vs 3.3m

Year 2-5.5m (9.8m) vs 3.5m (6.8m)

Year 3-4.9m (14.7m) vs 4.5m (11.3m)

Year 4-3.2m (17.9m) vs 6.0m (17.3m)

Year 5-2.3m (20.2m) vs 5.6m (22.9m)

Year 6-2.0m (22.2m) vs ~4m (~27.0m)

Sure, their overall sales are both in the 20-23m range after year 5 but the trajectory is completely different, for Switch to sell 4m this year and only 2.5m over the following 3-4 years would mean it would go from selling over double 3DS in years 4-6 to selling on par in years 7 onward.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

RolStoppable said:

Now that we've got the split for the numbers, it's time to conclude the year 2021 and start the year 2022.

2021 finished with total sales of 5.579m, so a good bit above the 5m target I had set one year ago. Of course, it's not all positive concerning this result, because during mid-2021 it looked like 6m could be achieved. 2021 won 18 of the 26 first half comparisons, but then only 4 of 26 comparisons in the latter half. This turned a 334k lead into a 377k deficit. Ultimately, 2021 was a year that overachieved at first and then began to underachieve more and more as time went on. Not even a new hardware SKU was able to prevent the loss. In the big picture though, 2021 was an excellent year of sales that ranks among the highest ones all-time in Japan.

Week2020 Weekly2020 Cumulative2021 Weekly2021 CumulativeDifference WeeklyDifference Cumulative
1284.827284.827312.121312.12127.29427.294
2116.301401.128167.596479.71751.29578.589
396.458497.586170.691650.40874.233152.822
467.987565.573110.811761.21942.824195.646
575.922641.495114.170875.38938.248233.894
6100.961741.45688.485963.874-12.476222.418
780.312821.948109.6151.073.48929.303251.541
841.490863.25874.2981.147.78732.808284.529
953.098916.35678.0491.225.83624.951309.480
1050.585967.94189.8271.315.66339.242347.722
1157.2741.025.21572.6101.388.37315.336363.158
12392.5761.417.79189.1041.477.477-303.47259.686
13282.5611.700.352267.4971.744.974-15.06444.622
14154.6401.854.992135.0761.880.050-19.56425.058
1525.3131.880.30596.2591.976.30970.94696.004
1627.8741.908.17994.0572.070.36666.183162.187
17107.1042.015.284105.8332.176.199-1.271160.915
18115.0422.130.326165.2682.341.46750.226211.141
1942.4202.172.74670.7602.412.22728.340239.481
2038.3802.211.12695.4112.507.63857.031296.512
2152.5572.263.68399.1182.606.75646.561343.073
22107.5932.371.27671.1482.677.904-36.445306.628
2368.1922.439.46897.2082.775.11229.016335.644
2455.1872.494.65578.3172.853.42923.130358.774
2578.4282.573.08375.0772.928.506-3.351355.423
2693.7992.666.88272.9513.001.457-20.848334.575
2752.2502.719.13284.4943.085.95132.244366.819
2896.8792.816.01169.2833.155.234-27.596339.223
29113.1972.929.20864.1073.219.341-49.090290.133
30125.2313.054.43969.7383.289.079-55.493234.640
3186.6053.141.04462.8653.351.944-23.740210.900
32173.3383.314.38272.7733.424.717-100.565110.335
33148.6993.463.08189.7323.514.449-58.96751.368
3470.1293.533.21072.5273.586.9762.39853.766
3578.7733.611.98363.2543.650.230-15.51938.247
3677.6113.689.59460.9423.711.172-16.66921.578
3783.9203.773.51467.1143.778.286-16.8064.772
38110.0293.883.54340.0683.818.354-69.961-65.189
3970.5423.954.08546.2973.864.651-24.245-89.434
4091.0934.045.17840.4633.905.114-50.630-140.064
41108.5754.153.753179.8514.084.96571.276-68.788
4295.8524.249.60572.9444.157.909-22.908-91.696
4364.7684.314.373108.1224.266.03143.354-48.342
4486.9854.401.35874.8034.340.834-12.182-60.524
45139.2004.540.55890.5174.431.351-48.683-109.207
46116.2674.656.82587.2674.518.618-29.000-138.207
47179.1434.835.968167.7784.686.396-11.365-149.572
48145.1784.981.146122.5734.808.969-22.605-172.177
49204.6225.185.768202.9375.011.906-1.685-173.862
50229.6985.415.466192.3355.204.241-37.363-211.225
51263.3045.678.770176.8325.381.073-86.472-297.697
52278.1735.956.943198.0545.579.127-80.119-377.816

Now knowing that we are looking at the beginning of the saturation phase in Japan, it's clear from the outset that 2022 won't come close to 2021's sales. This year will build a pretty big deficit in Q1 already, due to the combination of reduced momentum going into the year and no guaranteed blockbuster game releasing during this timeframe. There's a chance that Pokémon Legends Arceus (releases later this month) is a big deal, but it's possible all the same that it sells numbers closer to other Pokémon spinoffs rather than the main series.

What we can say for sure is that Splatoon 3 will be huge, so it will likely serve as an incentive for existing Switch owners to upgrade to an OLED model. The comparisons are much easier in the second half, so the odds for 2022 to be more or less flat year over year for the final six months aren't too shabby. It's unlikely that we'll see another new Switch SKU launching in 2022, but all the price cut options remain for Nintendo, so a severe loss in momentum could be countered easily. However, price cuts are usually done on a global level, so Nintendo might just accept declining sales in Japan in 2022 like they have accepted merely good sales in Europe for the past several years.

All that being said, the target for Switch in 2022 should be to exceed 4m units. Above 4.5m would be great, below 3.5m would be disappointing. A YTD deficit of 500k+ won't take long until it will be reached. I don't expect Splatoon 3 to release in the first half of 2022, so by week 26 2022 will be deep in the hole. But as mentioned above, the second half will be filled with much gentler comparisons.

Week2020 Weekly2020 Cumulative2021 Weekly2021 CumulativeDifference WeeklyDifference Cumulative
1312.121312.121195.926195.926-116.195-116.195
2167.596479.717
3170.691650.408
4110.811761.219
5114.170875.389
688.485963.874
7109.6151.073.489
874.2981.147.787
978.0491.225.836
1089.8271.315.663
1172.6101.388.373
1289.1041.477.477
13267.4971.744.974
14135.0761.880.050
1596.2591.976.309
1694.0572.070.366
17105.8332.176.199
18165.2682.341.467
1970.7602.412.227
2095.4112.507.638
2199.1182.606.756
2271.1482.677.904
2397.2082.775.112
2478.3172.853.429
2575.0772.928.506
2672.9513.001.457
2784.4943.085.951
2869.2833.155.234
2964.1073.219.341
3069.7383.289.079
3162.8653.351.944
3272.7733.424.717
3389.7323.514.449
3472.5273.586.976
3563.2543.650.230
3660.9423.711.172
3767.1143.778.286
3840.0683.818.354
3946.2973.864.651
4040.4633.905.114
41179.8514.084.965
4272.9444.157.909
43108.1224.266.031
4474.8034.340.834
4590.5174.431.351
4687.2674.518.618
47167.7784.686.396
48122.5734.808.969
49202.9375.011.906
50192.3355.204.241
51176.8325.381.073
52198.0545.579.127

I think your chart should read 2021 / 2022 right?



我是广州人