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Forums - Sales Discussion - Famitsu sales: Week 1, 2022 - (27th Dec - 2nd Jan)

kirby007 on 11 January 2022

the OG switch might have dropped from the cliff, but the OLED just started the climb



 "I think people should define the word crap" - Kirby007

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zorg1000 on 11 January 2022
kirby007 said:

the OG switch might have dropped from the cliff, but the OLED just started the climb

No, there are not shortages of any model in Japan.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

kirby007 on 11 January 2022
zorg1000 said:
kirby007 said:

the OG switch might have dropped from the cliff, but the OLED just started the climb

No, there are not shortages of any model in Japan.

right right, anecdotal evidence right right
even if the OLED model is just getting some supply in, doesn't mean it isn't starting the climb



 "I think people should define the word crap" - Kirby007

Join the Prediction League http://www.vgchartz.com/predictions

Instead of seeking to convince others, we can be open to changing our own minds, and seek out information that contradicts our own steadfast point of view. Maybe it’ll turn out that those who disagree with you actually have a solid grasp of the facts. There’s a slight possibility that, after all, you’re the one who’s wrong.

zorg1000 on 11 January 2022

Switch will probably sell something like 4-4.5 million this year. A big decline from 2020/2021 but still very strong sales.

Similar to DS/3DS when they peaked, had a year of modest decline followed by a big decline.

DS
2006-8.86m
2007-7.14m
2008-4.03m

3DS
2012-5.62m
2013-4.93m
2014-3.15m

NSW
2020-5.96m
2021-5.58m
2022-4.2m



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

Kakadu18 on 11 January 2022
zorg1000 said:

Switch will probably sell something like 4-4.5 million this year. A big decline from 2020/2021 but still very strong sales.

Similar to DS/3DS when they peaked, had a year of modest decline followed by a big decline.

DS
2006-8.86m
2007-7.14m
2008-4.03m

3DS
2012-5.62m
2013-4.93m
2014-3.15m

NSW
2020-5.96m
2021-5.58m
2022-4.2m

I'm going to predict 4.6mil.



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zorg1000 on 11 January 2022
kirby007 said:
zorg1000 said:

No, there are not shortages of any model in Japan.

right right, anecdotal evidence right right
even if the OLED model is just getting some supply in, doesn't mean it isn't starting the climb

Anecdotal evidence? I’m going off of what Chris1964 (the guy we have been stealing Japan sales data from for like 15 years) is saying. He’s not just some random guy who walked into a store and saw units on sale and went “welp, I guess shortages are over!”



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

kirby007 on 11 January 2022

Him saying the switch won't sell 4.5 m in 2022 in japan doesn't equal the conclusion there aint shortages on the OLED or that the OLED isn't going to carry the switch this year

"No I'm not referring to this, supply issue is half of Furukawa's concerns for Switch hardware in 2022."



 "I think people should define the word crap" - Kirby007

Join the Prediction League http://www.vgchartz.com/predictions

Instead of seeking to convince others, we can be open to changing our own minds, and seek out information that contradicts our own steadfast point of view. Maybe it’ll turn out that those who disagree with you actually have a solid grasp of the facts. There’s a slight possibility that, after all, you’re the one who’s wrong.

zorg1000 on 11 January 2022
kirby007 said:

Him saying the switch won't sell 4.5 m in 2022 in japan doesn't equal the conclusion there aint shortages on the OLED or that the OLED isn't going to carry the switch this year

"No I'm not referring to this, supply issue is half of Furukawa's concerns for Switch hardware in 2022."

I’m not talking about any specific post, I’m talking about the things he has been saying for over a month, him and Hiska along with other prominent members of the Japanese sales community have all said the same thing, there are no shortages in Japan.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

kirby007 on 11 January 2022

We haven't had a single week with a switch shortage, just like we won't when the QHD switch drops in november



 "I think people should define the word crap" - Kirby007

Join the Prediction League http://www.vgchartz.com/predictions

Instead of seeking to convince others, we can be open to changing our own minds, and seek out information that contradicts our own steadfast point of view. Maybe it’ll turn out that those who disagree with you actually have a solid grasp of the facts. There’s a slight possibility that, after all, you’re the one who’s wrong.

zorg1000 on 11 January 2022
kirby007 said:

We haven't had a single week with a switch shortage, just like we won't when the QHD switch drops in november

Why is it so offensive to you that Switch does not have shortages in Japan? Does it really affect your life that much that you have to deny reality?

The OLED model had shortages when it launched but they have been resolved by the start of December.

This was its 5th holiday, has sold over 23 million units and is a few months away from becoming the 3rd best selling console of all time in Japan. Saturation was bound to happen at some point.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.