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Forums - Sales Discussion - Famitsu sales: Week 1, 2022 - (27th Dec - 2nd Jan)

kirby007 said:

We haven't had a single week with a switch shortage, just like we won't when the QHD switch drops in november

Why is it so offensive to you that Switch does not have shortages in Japan? Does it really affect your life that much that you have to deny reality?

The OLED model had shortages when it launched but they have been resolved by the start of December.

This was its 5th holiday, has sold over 23 million units and is a few months away from becoming the 3rd best selling console of all time in Japan. Saturation was bound to happen at some point.



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kirby007 said:

We haven't had a single week with a switch shortage, just like we won't when the QHD switch drops in november

What are you talking about dude?



Kakadu18 said:
zorg1000 said:

Switch will probably sell something like 4-4.5 million this year. A big decline from 2020/2021 but still very strong sales.

Similar to DS/3DS when they peaked, had a year of modest decline followed by a big decline.

DS
2006-8.86m
2007-7.14m
2008-4.03m

3DS
2012-5.62m
2013-4.93m
2014-3.15m

NSW
2020-5.96m
2021-5.58m
2022-4.2m

I'm going to predict 4.6mil.

I guess Switch won't fall below 2019 level (4.5m) in 2022. Software lineup is just too good and at least Splatoon 3 should push a decent amout of consoles in Japan, and also BOTW 2. I expect the big drop in 2023.

Nintendo killed the DS too fast. I don't think they make this mistake again.



zorg1000 said:

Switch will probably sell something like 4-4.5 million this year. A big decline from 2020/2021 but still very strong sales.

Similar to DS/3DS when they peaked, had a year of modest decline followed by a big decline.

DS
2006-8.86m
2007-7.14m
2008-4.03m

3DS
2012-5.62m
2013-4.93m
2014-3.15m

NSW
2020-5.96m
2021-5.58m
2022-4.2m

Hard agree.

I have been asking for years when people expect the Switch to stop peaking. Apparently that year was 2020. But people kept pushing that peak year later and later, not realizing that yes all consoles have to sell less at some point regardless of top tier games.

Of course it is not like the Switch is doing badly. It is doing great! Considering the situation of the Japanese market nowadays.



Kakadu18 said:
kirby007 said:

We haven't had a single week with a switch shortage, just like we won't when the QHD switch drops in november

What are you talking about dude?

You think the OLED is going to be the only upgrade before a switch 2?



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kirby007 said:
Kakadu18 said:

What are you talking about dude?

You think the OLED is going to be the only upgrade before a switch 2?

Yes



Software Top 30 for this week has been released and is now reflected in the OP



SW-3707-5131-3911

rapsuperstar31 said:
ShadowLink93 said:

NSW Famitsu Calender year Sales

2017: 3.41m
2018: 3.48m
2019: 4.49m
2020: 5.96m
2021: 5.58m
2022: ?????

How many this year? 4.5m to 5m?

Around 5...unless we get that rumored Mario Kart 9, Donkey Kong and Zelda this year in which case I think it has its best year, especially if ps5/xbox stays hard to find throughout the year.

I think the Switch has reached saturation point in Japan. There tends to be a slowdown at the 20m mark. Just for reference, only 2 consoles has ever broken the 25m (and subsequently 30m), the DS and GB. The GB did it over 15 years and a complete redesign (many will argue the Gameboy Colour was a totally different console). 

Personally, I'll be surprised if the switch breaks 4m this year especially as there are no new killer IPs like AC in 2020 and MH in 2021. Splatoon 3 and Zelda should keep its momentum going though so I'm predicting a "conservative" 3-3.5m. I just think the baseline will be dropping significantly towards 50k'sh a week rather than the constant 80-100k we were seeing the last couple of years. 



kenjab said:

Software Top 30 for this week has been released and is now reflected in the OP

Another clean sweep for the Switch!



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Splatoon 2 reached 4 million. That's two times more than Breath of the Wild (1.9m) or almost two times more than Super Mario Odyssey (2.3m).

Splatoon 2 is in the same league as Mario Kart 8 (4.3m), Pokemon Sword/Shield (4.2m) or Super Smash Bros. Ultimate (4.6m) now.

I expect awesome numbers from Splatoon 3 in Japan. Not so sure if it can push hardware that much so late in its life cycle.