RolStoppable said:
Now that we've got the split for the numbers, it's time to conclude the year 2021 and start the year 2022. 2021 finished with total sales of 5.579m, so a good bit above the 5m target I had set one year ago. Of course, it's not all positive concerning this result, because during mid-2021 it looked like 6m could be achieved. 2021 won 18 of the 26 first half comparisons, but then only 4 of 26 comparisons in the latter half. This turned a 334k lead into a 377k deficit. Ultimately, 2021 was a year that overachieved at first and then began to underachieve more and more as time went on. Not even a new hardware SKU was able to prevent the loss. In the big picture though, 2021 was an excellent year of sales that ranks among the highest ones all-time in Japan. | Week | 2020 Weekly | 2020 Cumulative | 2021 Weekly | 2021 Cumulative | Difference Weekly | Difference Cumulative | | 1 | 284.827 | 284.827 | 312.121 | 312.121 | 27.294 | 27.294 | | 2 | 116.301 | 401.128 | 167.596 | 479.717 | 51.295 | 78.589 | | 3 | 96.458 | 497.586 | 170.691 | 650.408 | 74.233 | 152.822 | | 4 | 67.987 | 565.573 | 110.811 | 761.219 | 42.824 | 195.646 | | 5 | 75.922 | 641.495 | 114.170 | 875.389 | 38.248 | 233.894 | | 6 | 100.961 | 741.456 | 88.485 | 963.874 | -12.476 | 222.418 | | 7 | 80.312 | 821.948 | 109.615 | 1.073.489 | 29.303 | 251.541 | | 8 | 41.490 | 863.258 | 74.298 | 1.147.787 | 32.808 | 284.529 | | 9 | 53.098 | 916.356 | 78.049 | 1.225.836 | 24.951 | 309.480 | | 10 | 50.585 | 967.941 | 89.827 | 1.315.663 | 39.242 | 347.722 | | 11 | 57.274 | 1.025.215 | 72.610 | 1.388.373 | 15.336 | 363.158 | | 12 | 392.576 | 1.417.791 | 89.104 | 1.477.477 | -303.472 | 59.686 | | 13 | 282.561 | 1.700.352 | 267.497 | 1.744.974 | -15.064 | 44.622 | | 14 | 154.640 | 1.854.992 | 135.076 | 1.880.050 | -19.564 | 25.058 | | 15 | 25.313 | 1.880.305 | 96.259 | 1.976.309 | 70.946 | 96.004 | | 16 | 27.874 | 1.908.179 | 94.057 | 2.070.366 | 66.183 | 162.187 | | 17 | 107.104 | 2.015.284 | 105.833 | 2.176.199 | -1.271 | 160.915 | | 18 | 115.042 | 2.130.326 | 165.268 | 2.341.467 | 50.226 | 211.141 | | 19 | 42.420 | 2.172.746 | 70.760 | 2.412.227 | 28.340 | 239.481 | | 20 | 38.380 | 2.211.126 | 95.411 | 2.507.638 | 57.031 | 296.512 | | 21 | 52.557 | 2.263.683 | 99.118 | 2.606.756 | 46.561 | 343.073 | | 22 | 107.593 | 2.371.276 | 71.148 | 2.677.904 | -36.445 | 306.628 | | 23 | 68.192 | 2.439.468 | 97.208 | 2.775.112 | 29.016 | 335.644 | | 24 | 55.187 | 2.494.655 | 78.317 | 2.853.429 | 23.130 | 358.774 | | 25 | 78.428 | 2.573.083 | 75.077 | 2.928.506 | -3.351 | 355.423 | | 26 | 93.799 | 2.666.882 | 72.951 | 3.001.457 | -20.848 | 334.575 | | 27 | 52.250 | 2.719.132 | 84.494 | 3.085.951 | 32.244 | 366.819 | | 28 | 96.879 | 2.816.011 | 69.283 | 3.155.234 | -27.596 | 339.223 | | 29 | 113.197 | 2.929.208 | 64.107 | 3.219.341 | -49.090 | 290.133 | | 30 | 125.231 | 3.054.439 | 69.738 | 3.289.079 | -55.493 | 234.640 | | 31 | 86.605 | 3.141.044 | 62.865 | 3.351.944 | -23.740 | 210.900 | | 32 | 173.338 | 3.314.382 | 72.773 | 3.424.717 | -100.565 | 110.335 | | 33 | 148.699 | 3.463.081 | 89.732 | 3.514.449 | -58.967 | 51.368 | | 34 | 70.129 | 3.533.210 | 72.527 | 3.586.976 | 2.398 | 53.766 | | 35 | 78.773 | 3.611.983 | 63.254 | 3.650.230 | -15.519 | 38.247 | | 36 | 77.611 | 3.689.594 | 60.942 | 3.711.172 | -16.669 | 21.578 | | 37 | 83.920 | 3.773.514 | 67.114 | 3.778.286 | -16.806 | 4.772 | | 38 | 110.029 | 3.883.543 | 40.068 | 3.818.354 | -69.961 | -65.189 | | 39 | 70.542 | 3.954.085 | 46.297 | 3.864.651 | -24.245 | -89.434 | | 40 | 91.093 | 4.045.178 | 40.463 | 3.905.114 | -50.630 | -140.064 | | 41 | 108.575 | 4.153.753 | 179.851 | 4.084.965 | 71.276 | -68.788 | | 42 | 95.852 | 4.249.605 | 72.944 | 4.157.909 | -22.908 | -91.696 | | 43 | 64.768 | 4.314.373 | 108.122 | 4.266.031 | 43.354 | -48.342 | | 44 | 86.985 | 4.401.358 | 74.803 | 4.340.834 | -12.182 | -60.524 | | 45 | 139.200 | 4.540.558 | 90.517 | 4.431.351 | -48.683 | -109.207 | | 46 | 116.267 | 4.656.825 | 87.267 | 4.518.618 | -29.000 | -138.207 | | 47 | 179.143 | 4.835.968 | 167.778 | 4.686.396 | -11.365 | -149.572 | | 48 | 145.178 | 4.981.146 | 122.573 | 4.808.969 | -22.605 | -172.177 | | 49 | 204.622 | 5.185.768 | 202.937 | 5.011.906 | -1.685 | -173.862 | | 50 | 229.698 | 5.415.466 | 192.335 | 5.204.241 | -37.363 | -211.225 | | 51 | 263.304 | 5.678.770 | 176.832 | 5.381.073 | -86.472 | -297.697 | | 52 | 278.173 | 5.956.943 | 198.054 | 5.579.127 | -80.119 | -377.816 |
Now knowing that we are looking at the beginning of the saturation phase in Japan, it's clear from the outset that 2022 won't come close to 2021's sales. This year will build a pretty big deficit in Q1 already, due to the combination of reduced momentum going into the year and no guaranteed blockbuster game releasing during this timeframe. There's a chance that Pokémon Legends Arceus (releases later this month) is a big deal, but it's possible all the same that it sells numbers closer to other Pokémon spinoffs rather than the main series. What we can say for sure is that Splatoon 3 will be huge, so it will likely serve as an incentive for existing Switch owners to upgrade to an OLED model. The comparisons are much easier in the second half, so the odds for 2022 to be more or less flat year over year for the final six months aren't too shabby. It's unlikely that we'll see another new Switch SKU launching in 2022, but all the price cut options remain for Nintendo, so a severe loss in momentum could be countered easily. However, price cuts are usually done on a global level, so Nintendo might just accept declining sales in Japan in 2022 like they have accepted merely good sales in Europe for the past several years. All that being said, the target for Switch in 2022 should be to exceed 4m units. Above 4.5m would be great, below 3.5m would be disappointing. A YTD deficit of 500k+ won't take long until it will be reached. I don't expect Splatoon 3 to release in the first half of 2022, so by week 26 2022 will be deep in the hole. But as mentioned above, the second half will be filled with much gentler comparisons. | Week | 2020 Weekly | 2020 Cumulative | 2021 Weekly | 2021 Cumulative | Difference Weekly | Difference Cumulative | | 1 | 312.121 | 312.121 | 195.926 | 195.926 | -116.195 | -116.195 | | 2 | 167.596 | 479.717 | | | | | | 3 | 170.691 | 650.408 | | | | | | 4 | 110.811 | 761.219 | | | | | | 5 | 114.170 | 875.389 | | | | | | 6 | 88.485 | 963.874 | | | | | | 7 | 109.615 | 1.073.489 | | | | | | 8 | 74.298 | 1.147.787 | | | | | | 9 | 78.049 | 1.225.836 | | | | | | 10 | 89.827 | 1.315.663 | | | | | | 11 | 72.610 | 1.388.373 | | | | | | 12 | 89.104 | 1.477.477 | | | | | | 13 | 267.497 | 1.744.974 | | | | | | 14 | 135.076 | 1.880.050 | | | | | | 15 | 96.259 | 1.976.309 | | | | | | 16 | 94.057 | 2.070.366 | | | | | | 17 | 105.833 | 2.176.199 | | | | | | 18 | 165.268 | 2.341.467 | | | | | | 19 | 70.760 | 2.412.227 | | | | | | 20 | 95.411 | 2.507.638 | | | | | | 21 | 99.118 | 2.606.756 | | | | | | 22 | 71.148 | 2.677.904 | | | | | | 23 | 97.208 | 2.775.112 | | | | | | 24 | 78.317 | 2.853.429 | | | | | | 25 | 75.077 | 2.928.506 | | | | | | 26 | 72.951 | 3.001.457 | | | | | | 27 | 84.494 | 3.085.951 | | | | | | 28 | 69.283 | 3.155.234 | | | | | | 29 | 64.107 | 3.219.341 | | | | | | 30 | 69.738 | 3.289.079 | | | | | | 31 | 62.865 | 3.351.944 | | | | | | 32 | 72.773 | 3.424.717 | | | | | | 33 | 89.732 | 3.514.449 | | | | | | 34 | 72.527 | 3.586.976 | | | | | | 35 | 63.254 | 3.650.230 | | | | | | 36 | 60.942 | 3.711.172 | | | | | | 37 | 67.114 | 3.778.286 | | | | | | 38 | 40.068 | 3.818.354 | | | | | | 39 | 46.297 | 3.864.651 | | | | | | 40 | 40.463 | 3.905.114 | | | | | | 41 | 179.851 | 4.084.965 | | | | | | 42 | 72.944 | 4.157.909 | | | | | | 43 | 108.122 | 4.266.031 | | | | | | 44 | 74.803 | 4.340.834 | | | | | | 45 | 90.517 | 4.431.351 | | | | | | 46 | 87.267 | 4.518.618 | | | | | | 47 | 167.778 | 4.686.396 | | | | | | 48 | 122.573 | 4.808.969 | | | | | | 49 | 202.937 | 5.011.906 | | | | | | 50 | 192.335 | 5.204.241 | | | | | | 51 | 176.832 | 5.381.073 | | | | | | 52 | 198.054 | 5.579.127 | | | | |
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