Famitsu sales: Week 1, 2022 - (27th Dec - 2nd Jan)

[Farsala]

zorg1000 said:

Farsala said:

30m will be tough for Switch still. 4m this year makes 27m due to Splatoon 3. After that not many Japan centric games to be released, and news of the Switch 2 will be rolling in.

It will crawl to 29.5m in my opinion.

3DS also hit 20-23m relatively fast and then crawled to its current position of 24.5m.

Idk, 2.5m from 2023 onward seems kinda low.

And that’s not true about 3DS though, it sped it’s way to 15m in 3 years then crawled it’s way to 20-23m over the next 4 years.

NSW on the other hand sold a little over 11m in its first 3 years then sold another 11m+ over the next 2 years.

3DS vs NSW

Year1-4.3m vs 3.3m

Year 2-5.5m (9.8m) vs 3.5m (6.8m)

Year 3-4.9m (14.7m) vs 4.5m (11.3m)

Year 4-3.2m (17.9m) vs 6.0m (17.3m)

Year 5-2.3m (20.2m) vs 5.6m (22.9m)

Year 6-2.0m (22.2m) vs ~4m (~27.0m)

Sure, their overall sales are both in the 20-23m range after year 5 but the trajectory is completely different, for Switch to sell 4m this year and only 2.5m over the following 3-4 years would mean it would go from selling over double 3DS in years 4-6 to selling on par in years 7 onward.

I think the saturation point for both is similar. The big difference is that Switch will sell 5m more.

One could say the 3ds was front loaded, but you could also say the Switch was a bit slow. Either way they have similar sales after 5 years, and it is obvious to anyone that the Switch will beat the 3DS by a good margin.

However I predict the same kind of situation. The 3DS sales all but stopped in year 7 when the Switch released. So if the Switch successor releases in year 7 or early year 8, we have weak legs.

So

Year 6 4m

Year 7 2m

Year 8 and beyond .5m