2024 is the obvious answer. I've been saying that for a few years. Never understood the people who want Nintendo to kill it off early like in '22 or '23.

I could only see them pushing out to 2025/26 if they were planning another round of major first party games for the Switch (like another 3D mario, MK9, and gen 9 Pokemon in 2023) and then they could release some smaller franchises in '24/'25 at the end of Switch's life. But I doubt it as all those games are much more likely to be early Switch 2 releases in 2024 I bet.

I have not seen anyone, let alone enough people for it to be considered a movement, saying it should be replaced in 2022. All I've seen is some people saying that there are people that want it in 2022 and that they disagree with them, but I've yet to see anyone specifically take that stance, let alone enough to justify posts like this suggesting there is a decently numbered faction in this camp. It's like someone started a rumor and now people believe this group exists when it doesn't really.

As for 2023, that wouldn't be killing it off early. If they released it March 2023, that would be exactly 6 years later, and considering their console generations are about 6 years on average, that isn't killing it off early. But most posts I've seen about 2023 have been people speculating holiday 2023, so 6.5+ years later, and certainly not killing it off early. That's an extra half year for Switch to gobble up some sales before 2witch comes out.

I say 2023, but I think we may start to hear rumors and speculations about it later this year.

From last year. Unless this guy has some 11 or more bad sources..

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-09-29/nintendo-switch-4k-developers-make-games-for-nonexistent-console

May be conflicting information based on the mass production of 7" 720P OLED screens from Samsung to Nintendo for the OLED model last fall. To the new hardware they are working on.

Zynga were put under the spotlight and are under NDA. If you read theirs and Nintendo's responses they are both carefully worded to avoid litigation “To clarify, Zynga does not have a 4K developer kit from Nintendo”. Who says its a 4K kit? A portable console will more likely that fail to reach native 4K resolutions in current generation games and will only get to that with smart upscaling. Which Nintendo have seen some R&D in as they have set a patent in March 2020 for ML upscaling. This sounds like a response so Nintendo doesn't send out their lawyers.

I also find it really hard to believe that Nintendo would sent out multiple development kits to developers for nothing.

Q4 2024 seems the best period: not too early, to avoid missing strong sales as the main product, including posponed ones from the pandemic logistic difficulties, neither too late, to keep the brand strong enough during the transition. Careful timing can give NS over 135M lifetime sales, minimising pandemic damage (that Ninty managed to control far better than competitors anyway).

I no longer consider Bloomberg a reliable source for gaming news.  They had us all believing the OLED model would be a 4k Switch.

Switch has now sold over 100 million units and NIntendo knows well that PS5 and XSX will release big shots this year, so holidays 2023 is my bet for Switch 2 4K!

I'd prefer a 2023 release but wouldn't be surprised if Nintendo rides the Switch out until 2024. As long as their next hardware is BC to Switch games, that's really what I mainly care about.

I can't see anyone realistically believing that Nintendo will replace the Switch this year.  The Switch has big games on this year's release schedule, has sold over 20 million consoles the last 2 consecutive years, and has remained in demand without ever receiving a single global price cut from its MSRP.  By contrast, the PS4 had dipped to 14.7m consoles sold the year before the PS5 launched.  Meanwhile, the global supply chain is expected to continue to be disrupted for the majority of 2022.  At times, Nintendo has not even been able to meet demand with the current # of Switches they can produce.  So, not only does Nintendo not need to replace the Switch yet, it's not even a good time to do it.  Especially since Nintendo themselves announced they are reducing their hardware forecast, specifically citing "the effects of the global semiconductor shortage".  

There is no rationale for Nintendo to drop a Switch successor onto the market this year with all of those points in mind.  If they were, we would have heard something from Nintendo by now, and yet not even a codename for their next system has been mentioned.  I pointed out in another thread (https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9345043) regarding this same subject, that Nintendo has historically spent over a year (and in most cases, over 2 years) talking about their hardware prior to its release.  For that reason, I selected 2024 in the poll as the earliest year I could see a Switch successor releasing.  It's possible that they could target holiday 2023, but I'm not ready to put any stock in that until we hear the first peep from Nintendo about it.