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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - What year will the Switch successor release?

 

What year will Switch successor release?

2022 2 2.41%
 
2023 13 15.66%
 
2024 48 57.83%
 
2025 16 19.28%
 
2026 3 3.61%
 
2027 & Beyond 1 1.20%
 
Total:83
Dulfite said:

What I want to know is what year the codename for the successor is leaked.

Project Cafe was Wii U.
NX was Switch.

I just want to know it's codename!

It's probably Dolphin 2 



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2024 is the obvious answer. I've been saying that for a few years. Never understood the people who want Nintendo to kill it off early like in '22 or '23.


I could only see them pushing out to 2025/26 if they were planning another round of major first party games for the Switch (like another 3D mario, MK9, and gen 9 Pokemon in 2023) and then they could release some smaller franchises in '24/'25 at the end of Switch's life. But I doubt it as all those games are much more likely to be early Switch 2 releases in 2024 I bet.



Fall 2024 sounds right to me. They'll want to release it close to the holidays, but not too close because they'll want to have a few games released by the holidays, without giving up their method of releasing games periodically instead of all in one go. I could be wrong, though I can't see it coming in any other year at this point.




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Slownenberg said:

2024 is the obvious answer. I've been saying that for a few years. Never understood the people who want Nintendo to kill it off early like in '22 or '23.


I could only see them pushing out to 2025/26 if they were planning another round of major first party games for the Switch (like another 3D mario, MK9, and gen 9 Pokemon in 2023) and then they could release some smaller franchises in '24/'25 at the end of Switch's life. But I doubt it as all those games are much more likely to be early Switch 2 releases in 2024 I bet.

I have not seen anyone, let alone enough people for it to be considered a movement, saying it should be replaced in 2022. All I've seen is some people saying that there are people that want it in 2022 and that they disagree with them, but I've yet to see anyone specifically take that stance, let alone enough to justify posts like this suggesting there is a decently numbered faction in this camp. It's like someone started a rumor and now people believe this group exists when it doesn't really.

As for 2023, that wouldn't be killing it off early. If they released it March 2023, that would be exactly 6 years later, and considering their console generations are about 6 years on average, that isn't killing it off early. But most posts I've seen about 2023 have been people speculating holiday 2023, so 6.5+ years later, and certainly not killing it off early. That's an extra half year for Switch to gobble up some sales before 2witch comes out.



hinch said:

Late 2022 / early 2023. Dev kits are already out.

Are they?



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Shipments

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I say 2023, but I think we may start to hear rumors and speculations about it later this year.



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RolStoppable said:
hinch said:

Late 2022 / early 2023. Dev kits are already out.

Are they?

From last year. Unless this guy has some 11 or more bad sources..

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-09-29/nintendo-switch-4k-developers-make-games-for-nonexistent-console



I'm thinking 2024 or later.

Scenarios that would see an earlier release seem even more unlike due to the chip shortage.
Especially if Switch 2 ends up sharing key components with PS5 and SX. That will slow all three of them down.

Third party multi plats haven't been that important to Switch that they'd make or break the system. And even if they had been, current gen games (that aren't cross gen) aren't a common thing yet. And people being unable to buy PS5/SX will keep the cross-gen standard going for even longer.

So Switch is in no particular hurry on that front, regardless.
Though one area that's seemingly always been an issue for developers generally is that coding games for Switch is like coding for a completely different language compared to the other two systems.

So one compelling reason to move to Switch 2 sooner than later would be if it could have similar architecture to PS5/XS.
But I don't think that's important for the success of the system, so I still expect that they'll take things slow.



hinch said:
RolStoppable said:

Are they?

From last year. Unless this guy has some 11 or more bad sources..

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-09-29/nintendo-switch-4k-developers-make-games-for-nonexistent-console

There was only one of the eleven sources that commented on the story and did so by denying the possession of a 4k development kit.

That aside though, the whole story concerned a mid-gen upgrade, not a next generation console. A mid-gen upgrade that was assumed to be cancelled for 2021 due to component shortages. Component shortages were definitely real for Nintendo - hence their downward revision of Switch shipments for the fiscal year - so the Bloomberg article doesn't get clearly contradicted and as such most of the sources should have been correct about 4k development kits. But again, the "non-existent console" that is refered to is a Switch revision, not a next gen device.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Shipments

RolStoppable said:
hinch said:

From last year. Unless this guy has some 11 or more bad sources..

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-09-29/nintendo-switch-4k-developers-make-games-for-nonexistent-console

There was only one of the eleven sources that commented on the story and did so by denying the possession of a 4k development kit.

That aside though, the whole story concerned a mid-gen upgrade, not a next generation console. A mid-gen upgrade that was assumed to be cancelled for 2021 due to component shortages. Component shortages were definitely real for Nintendo - hence their downward revision of Switch shipments for the fiscal year - so the Bloomberg article doesn't get clearly contradicted and as such most of the sources should have been correct about 4k development kits. But again, the "non-existent console" that is refered to is a Switch revision, not a next gen device.

May be conflicting information based on the mass production of 7" 720P OLED screens from Samsung to Nintendo for the OLED model last fall. To the new hardware they are working on.

Zynga were put under the spotlight and are under NDA. If you read theirs and Nintendo's responses they are both carefully worded to avoid litigation “To clarify, Zynga does not have a 4K developer kit from Nintendo”. Who says its a 4K kit? A portable console will more likely that fail to reach native 4K resolutions in current generation games and will only get to that with smart upscaling. Which Nintendo have seen some R&D in as they have set a patent in March 2020 for ML upscaling. This sounds like a response so Nintendo doesn't send out their lawyers.

I also find it really hard to believe that Nintendo would sent out multiple development kits to developers for nothing.

Last edited by hinch - on 10 January 2022