First off, I am not expecting this to be a popular post and I barely want to write it, myself, but it needs to be said. I know that it seems nuts to say this but the successor could launch post 2032 and possibly even never for a number of reasons:
1) WWIII. The second half of this decade is going to be very volatile and the coming years will see escalating tensions between the west and the east. Any type of world war in the 21st century (for too many reasons to mention) is obviously going to shelve any major console releases.
2) rising public unrest going into 2032. Protests, increasing authoritarianism and conflicts between western governments and their people is going to escalate for the next decade at least. During this time, gamers are not going to be concerned with playing games on the fastest possible hardware. Like movies during WWII, interest will be focused on playing simple and carefree games that will bring gamers back to happier times. Also, money will be in short supply and inflation will be intense. Most people will not be able to afford new consoles in a few years time. Gaming will likely become more of a nostalgia thing and the number of people who play games will likely go down in proportion with the declining popularity of western entertainment, in general. Unrest is also going to continue to stretch supply chains further and not less in the coming years. As a result, the chip shortage is not going to get better, only worse.
3) Increasing cyber-attacks and labour shortages will threaten internet access and electrical grid reliability. Rolling blackouts are probably a reality in many western cities in the coming years as is already the case in many poor countries. Internet access is not going to be what it is today. I think that demand for handheld gaming could increase as well as games that do not require online play.
Most importantly, the people who game in the coming decade are going to want to continue playing games on the hardware that they already own. The fact that many people are coming to realize is that western civilization is falling. In a civilization that is regressing, the older technology is going to be more valuable than the newer stuff. The new stuff is going to be available in limited quantities and most people will not be able to afford it. As a result, gamers and game companies will want to get as much mileage out of hardware that has high install bases as possible. The Switch is in the perfect position with a 100M+ install base as well as games that are heavy on nostalgia and will resonate with the public highly during extremely hard times. Frankly, nobody is going to want to play a game like CoD in the coming years as its too dark and is going to hit way too close to home. That said, I believe that gamers will lap up 2D super mario bros games and basically the rest Nintendo's carefree family-friendly franchises. Frankly, I believe that the Switch is in a vastly better position than the PS5 or XBS. Nintendo releasing a new platform this year or anytime soon would be an enormous mistake. Riding the Switch's install base is the best plan and, as time goes on, I believe that it will become more and more apparent why.