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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - What year will the Switch successor release?

 

What year will Switch successor release?

2022 2 2.41%
 
2023 13 15.66%
 
2024 48 57.83%
 
2025 16 19.28%
 
2026 3 3.61%
 
2027 & Beyond 1 1.20%
 
Total:83

With the chip shortage, not anytime soon. Probably 2025. Then again Nintendo likes the scarcity game..



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Went with 2025, but I could see it happening in 2027. There are two major issues. In the short term, there is the chip shortage. Nintendo likely sees Sony struggling to get consoles there and how its hurting their platform. They don't want to end up in the same situation. Console launches are risky, and Nintendo knows this. They wont jump the gun. The other issue is the economy. Inflation is going to be an issue and the Fed basically has to raise rates and cause a recession to deal with it. It's a damn if you do, damn if you don't situation. Nintendo has a huge install base and games are still selling well. They don't want to throw that away if they can't sell consoles.

What I expect we'll see is a Super Switch in 2024 or 2025. It will play Switch games and new releases will be on both. They'll phase the basic Switch over 2-3 years. But all in all, I don't see the next generation happening any time soon. Holiday 2024 is the earliest it could happen.



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early 2023 with a duel release of breath of the wild 2 :P

they will not send that game to die on the switch at the end of its lifetime



    R.I.P Mr Iwata :'(


Roma said:

early 2023 with a duel release of breath of the wild 2 :P

they will not send that game to die on the switch at the end of its lifetime

Gosh, can you imagine Nintendo doing that? We'd have two Nintendo home consoles (well Switch is a hybrid, but that means it can be a home console) in a row without an original Zelda game for one platform. And no, Link's Awakening (Switch Remake) doesn't count. Breath of the Wild was originally designed for the Wii U, but later cross-gen. Thus, the Wii U had no original Zelda main title. If they do the cross-gen release thing next year, same with the Switch. 

Before COVID-19 and the continued smash hit of the Switch, I would've guessed 2023 for Switch 2. Now I say 2024.



Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 144 million (was 73, then 96, then 113 million, then 125 million)

PS5: 105 million Xbox Series S/X: 60 million

PS4: 120 mil (was 100 then 130 million, then 122 million) Xbox One: 51 mil (was 50 then 55 mil)

3DS: 75.5 mil (was 73, then 77 million)

"Let go your earthly tether, enter the void, empty and become wind." - Guru Laghima

Dulfite said:
Slownenberg said:

2024 is the obvious answer. I've been saying that for a few years. Never understood the people who want Nintendo to kill it off early like in '22 or '23.


I could only see them pushing out to 2025/26 if they were planning another round of major first party games for the Switch (like another 3D mario, MK9, and gen 9 Pokemon in 2023) and then they could release some smaller franchises in '24/'25 at the end of Switch's life. But I doubt it as all those games are much more likely to be early Switch 2 releases in 2024 I bet.

I have not seen anyone, let alone enough people for it to be considered a movement, saying it should be replaced in 2022. All I've seen is some people saying that there are people that want it in 2022 and that they disagree with them, but I've yet to see anyone specifically take that stance, let alone enough to justify posts like this suggesting there is a decently numbered faction in this camp. It's like someone started a rumor and now people believe this group exists when it doesn't really.

As for 2023, that wouldn't be killing it off early. If they released it March 2023, that would be exactly 6 years later, and considering their console generations are about 6 years on average, that isn't killing it off early. But most posts I've seen about 2023 have been people speculating holiday 2023, so 6.5+ years later, and certainly not killing it off early. That's an extra half year for Switch to gobble up some sales before 2witch comes out.

Over the past year or two I have lots of time seen people on here saying Switch 2 should come out 2022 or at latest 2023. It might have just been the same few people, I dunno, but I saw that posted on here plenty. Sure now that it's 2022 they aren't saying that anymore, but a year or two ago there were plenty of posts like that.

And of course 2023 would be early haha. Come on. It just closed out 2021 about as much as Wii's peak year and has multiple huge games coming out this year, with several big first party IP we're still waiting to hear about or get release dates on, that will presumably be coming out in 2023. Both from a hardware sales and from a software library point of view, Spring 2023 would be insanely early and the definition of cutting the Switch off early.

The only times Nintendo has ever cut off systems drastically early like that was with the GBA and DS when they wanted to bring out a new system to compete with the more powerful playstation portables that had been released. The Switch has no such competition so there is no reason to cut it off early by launching a successor in 2023. A successor in Spring 2023 would be crazy stupid early.

Even if Nintendo hadn't been telling us for years that Switch will be around for a long time, just looking at the sales numbers it'd be insane to launch a successor before 2024. And launching in just over a year is completely laughable. 2024 is most likely, and 2025 makes a lot more sense than 2023. 2023 would be drastically early for no reason. You seem to be very caught up on this idea that a new Nintendo system must come out 6 years after launch, and you're ignoring ALL the context - like the fact that Switch just had two years that blew away the Wii's two best years but did it in it's four and fifth years, that the Switch is still selling insane coming into its sixth year despite no price cuts on hardware or first party software, that the Switch has a huge lineup of evergreen mega sellers in 2022 which they presumably want to keep selling beyond the first few months after they launch and not cut them off by trying to put everyone's attention on a new system, and there's multiple big games from series that aren't even on the docket for this year, at least as far as we know. I know you're a Nintendo bear and all but ya gotta at least pretend to be realistic lol.

Last edited by Slownenberg - 18 hours ago

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First off, I am not expecting this to be a popular post and I barely want to write it, myself, but it needs to be said.  I know that it seems nuts to say this but the successor could launch post 2032 and possibly even never for a number of reasons:

1) WWIII. The second half of this decade is going to be very volatile and the coming years will see escalating tensions between the west and the east. Any type of world war in the 21st century (for too many reasons to mention) is obviously going to shelve any major console releases.
2) rising public unrest going into 2032. Protests, increasing authoritarianism and conflicts between western governments and their people is going to escalate for the next decade at least. During this time, gamers are not going to be concerned with playing games on the fastest possible hardware. Like movies during WWII, interest will be focused on playing simple and carefree games that will bring gamers back to happier times. Also, money will be in short supply and inflation will be intense. Most people will not be able to afford new consoles in a few years time. Gaming will likely become more of a nostalgia thing and the number of people who play games will likely go down in proportion with the declining popularity of western entertainment, in general. Unrest is also going to continue to stretch supply chains further and not less in the coming years. As a result, the chip shortage is not going to get better, only worse.
3) Increasing cyber-attacks and labour shortages will threaten internet access and electrical grid reliability. Rolling blackouts are probably a reality in many western cities in the coming years as is already the case in many poor countries. Internet access is not going to be what it is today. I think that demand for handheld gaming could increase as well as games that do not require online play.

Most importantly, the people who game in the coming decade are going to want to continue playing games on the hardware that they already own. The fact that many people are coming to realize is that western civilization is falling. In a civilization that is regressing, the older technology is going to be more valuable than the newer stuff. The new stuff is going to be available in limited quantities and most people will not be able to afford it. As a result, gamers and game companies will want to get as much mileage out of hardware that has high install bases as possible. The Switch is in the perfect position with a 100M+ install base as well as games that are heavy on nostalgia and will resonate with the public highly during extremely hard times. Frankly, nobody is going to want to play a game like CoD in the coming years as its too dark and is going to hit way too close to home. That said, I believe that gamers will lap up 2D super mario bros games and basically the rest Nintendo's carefree family-friendly franchises. Frankly, I believe that the Switch is in a vastly better position than the PS5 or XBS. Nintendo releasing a new platform this year or anytime soon would be an enormous mistake. Riding the Switch's install base is the best plan and, as time goes on, I believe that it will become more and more apparent why.

Last edited by Illusion - 18 hours ago

Haha, Illusion, I like that bit of dystopian predicting. Honestly Switch could last for many more years if Nintendo really wanted it to, with just a Switch Pro update and a Lite OLED update, maybe throw in a Switch Home as well.

MK9, MP4, 2D Mario, MP1/2/3 remakes, a new 2D Zelda, WW/TP pack, Pikmin 4, Bayonetta 3, another Xenoblade, a Wii Sports port of some sort, a couple more Ring Fit games, Fzero, Star Fox, Mario Strikers, more pokemon, another 3D Mario, building out Switch online, a 2D Zelda Maker, Super Mario Maker 3D, Wave Race, Kid Icarus, Golden Sun, another Mario Party, some new IPs, Mario & Luigi, a Wario game, another Fire Emblem. Throw in hardware price cuts and Nintendo's Selects so all the older first party games drop to $30. They definitely have numerous years left of content they could make that would continue to sell great, though they'd probably have to eventually settle for selling 10 million systems a year and just focus on lots of software sales. Obviously not going to happen haha but in such a dystopian future Nintendo could definitely keep Switch going for many more years.



If WWIII happens the entire planet will be scorched earth. Video games won't matter anyway because we will be dead.

That said I'm not expecting WWIII to happen anytime soon unless some seriously fucked up loonatic is at the trigger.



If their ten-year plan or so is true then maybe March 2025, possibly even delayed to holidays that year.
Re-release BotW2 with whatever gimmick they’ll have then, probably screenless feature or at least wearable tech with new smart attributes other than that Rumble HD.



When is BOTW 2 coming out? That year. What ever that year is. Side note, they’d be smart to make the console backward compatible with og switch. So tired of digital purchases sinking with the old system.