I can't see anyone realistically believing that Nintendo will replace the Switch this year. The Switch has big games on this year's release schedule, has sold over 20 million consoles the last 2 consecutive years, and has remained in demand without ever receiving a single global price cut from its MSRP. By contrast, the PS4 had dipped to 14.7m consoles sold the year before the PS5 launched. Meanwhile, the global supply chain is expected to continue to be disrupted for the majority of 2022. At times, Nintendo has not even been able to meet demand with the current # of Switches they can produce. So, not only does Nintendo not need to replace the Switch yet, it's not even a good time to do it. Especially since Nintendo themselves announced they are reducing their hardware forecast, specifically citing "the effects of the global semiconductor shortage".
There is no rationale for Nintendo to drop a Switch successor onto the market this year with all of those points in mind. If they were, we would have heard something from Nintendo by now, and yet not even a codename for their next system has been mentioned. I pointed out in another thread (https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9345043) regarding this same subject, that Nintendo has historically spent over a year (and in most cases, over 2 years) talking about their hardware prior to its release. For that reason, I selected 2024 in the poll as the earliest year I could see a Switch successor releasing. It's possible that they could target holiday 2023, but I'm not ready to put any stock in that until we hear the first peep from Nintendo about it.
