Big Switch drop, 2021 catching up to 2020 is gonna be difficult. Nice hold for Metroid Dread, I hope word of mouth helps it get good legs.

Metroid is so ahead of KnY it’s not funny. People missing out on digital and WoM, both are heavily in Metroid favor as well as Metroid being sold out by a few retailers in japan.

Right now Metroid should be close to 180k, if not more including digital. KnY will be lucky to sell
Thru 200k by end of the month including digital.

On Amazon PS4 sku is at 15th, and PS5 at 98th

In the West I think majority of stock outside the launch which basically only covered pre-orders will be saved for Black Friday & December.
In Japan they are also likely saving OLED supply for Remakes & December - so it would be like a Japanese Black Friday with OLED Supply likely to be over 200K for the launch. Until than we can expect 50K OLEDs per week and 40K across OG/Lite most week maybe slightly more for Week 44 & 48:

Week 43 - 90K

Week 44 - 110K (Mario Party, Super Robot Wars 30)

Week 45 - 110K (New Horizon update)

Week 46 - 90K

Week 47 - 90K

Week 48 - 150K (Shin Megami Tensei V)

Week 49 - 300K (Brilliant Diamond/Shining Pearl)

Week 50 - 250K

Week 51 - 300K

Week 52 - 300K

TOTAL: 1790K

2021 TOTAL: 5947K

If they fail to achieve this I can totally see it being a supply chain and manufacturing problem rather than demand. Also I think momentum will continue into Q1. For me 2022 is still a huge year for the Switch, starting with Arceus, following it with Kirby and most importantly Splatoon 3 launching.. this will be the biggest launch on the system and is pretty much the only game I think can challenge New Horizon's launch in Japan. People underestimate how much hardware will be impacted by such a launch like they underestimated Animal Crossing. Doesn't matter that Splatoon 2 is on the system, I expect the five years gap between the two games to make it a very fresh experience with a lot of hype in Japan. Also Nintendo aren't going to shy away from doing a lot in terms of pushing it.. and it's not just Japan we are also talking near by markets. Splatoon 2 was never officially launched in China.. if Nintendo can somehow gets past the Chinese Government, Splatoon will surely be a huge hit in the country. A lot rests on Splatoon 3 next year, and knowing the team behind it and how they've been able to double the franchise sales with every entry it's likely to enter the 25M+ territory if they live up to the hype. 

Beyond Splatoon mania, a Breath of the Wild sequel.. is certainly going to propel the franchise to new heights in Japan, not as much as Splatoon but still it should have no problems to eventually join the 4 million club, something no one would have predicted for Zelda in Japan. 

I have faith, but obviously Nintendo can fuck it up, the main things are Splatoon 3 needs to feel meaty at launch, after two times users complaining about staggered content. And secondly the Zelda needs to repeat the magic. 

Third parties further supporting Switch is a given at this point, next year we are likely to see twice as many third party games on the system in comparison to 2021. 

I don't think it hasn't anything to do with the price on it's own - it's just bad value compared to the base model. The latter can do so much more and has a better battery life, making it even superior as a pure handheld than the pure handheld model.

This is a bold prediction, considering that Breath of the Wild (the best-selling Zelda to date in Japan) has sold almost 1.9 million physical units, and even adding digital sales I have doubts that they lead to a total physical + digital over 3 million.
Also, never on a Nintendo console did the second Zelda sell more than the first; at most Adventure of Link was less than 100,000 units from sales of the first Zelda (source: https://vgsales.fandom.com/wiki/The_Legend_of_Zelda ). It's highly unlikely that Breath of the Wild 2 will sell more than BOTW 1, both in Japan and around the world - not least because, even if it's as good as its predecessor, it won't have the cultural impact or the "system seller" potential of BOTW 1.

Yeah, I agree. BotW is probably around 2.5-2.8mil in Japan. No way the sequel tops 4mil. 2mil is more likely.

Hopefully Nintendo has plenty of OLEDs for the rest of the Fall. Shortages must have been bad for this week 2.

It's pretty exciting just how down to the wire the 2020 vs 2021 battle has been. It looks better for 2020 currently but not so much that a comeback would be surprising. I do hope that there is uncertainty about it right up till the last week instead of say 2020 being a clear winner by week 48 or so.

Given that reports of reservations put demand for the OLED in Japan at 5 to 7 times supply, I kinda doubt this week numbers are the result of folks just not feeling the new model.

The chip shortage is a real thing.

Oh, that's a quote regarding a lottery at a single chain of stores. Gotta love massive scale data extrapolation from such top quality new websites like "Today in 24.com" where the "trending now" section is literally an ad for a mobile game. I can't even. Not disagreeing that there is much more demand than there is supply of course, just had to laugh at that farce of a link.