| Doctor_MG said: I am hoping that the OLED supply was much greater in the west, because these numbers are lower than I had anticipated initially. 70k in Japan means that the Switch may not crack 400k this week (Japan is often around .25-.33 of Switch' total sales). My estimate for the week of 10-17th was 500k, but it looks like that's not likely to happen. |
In the West I think majority of stock outside the launch which basically only covered pre-orders will be saved for Black Friday & December.
In Japan they are also likely saving OLED supply for Remakes & December - so it would be like a Japanese Black Friday with OLED Supply likely to be over 200K for the launch. Until than we can expect 50K OLEDs per week and 40K across OG/Lite most week maybe slightly more for Week 44 & 48:
Week 43 - 90K
Week 44 - 110K (Mario Party, Super Robot Wars 30)
Week 45 - 110K (New Horizon update)
Week 46 - 90K
Week 47 - 90K
Week 48 - 150K (Shin Megami Tensei V)
Week 49 - 300K (Brilliant Diamond/Shining Pearl)
Week 50 - 250K
Week 51 - 300K
Week 52 - 300K
TOTAL: 1790K
2021 TOTAL: 5947K
If they fail to achieve this I can totally see it being a supply chain and manufacturing problem rather than demand. Also I think momentum will continue into Q1. For me 2022 is still a huge year for the Switch, starting with Arceus, following it with Kirby and most importantly Splatoon 3 launching.. this will be the biggest launch on the system and is pretty much the only game I think can challenge New Horizon's launch in Japan. People underestimate how much hardware will be impacted by such a launch like they underestimated Animal Crossing. Doesn't matter that Splatoon 2 is on the system, I expect the five years gap between the two games to make it a very fresh experience with a lot of hype in Japan. Also Nintendo aren't going to shy away from doing a lot in terms of pushing it.. and it's not just Japan we are also talking near by markets. Splatoon 2 was never officially launched in China.. if Nintendo can somehow gets past the Chinese Government, Splatoon will surely be a huge hit in the country. A lot rests on Splatoon 3 next year, and knowing the team behind it and how they've been able to double the franchise sales with every entry it's likely to enter the 25M+ territory if they live up to the hype.
Beyond Splatoon mania, a Breath of the Wild sequel.. is certainly going to propel the franchise to new heights in Japan, not as much as Splatoon but still it should have no problems to eventually join the 4 million club, something no one would have predicted for Zelda in Japan.
I have faith, but obviously Nintendo can fuck it up, the main things are Splatoon 3 needs to feel meaty at launch, after two times users complaining about staggered content. And secondly the Zelda needs to repeat the magic.
Third parties further supporting Switch is a given at this point, next year we are likely to see twice as many third party games on the system in comparison to 2021.
