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Forums - Sales Discussion - Switch has outsold Wii U + 3DS

Dulfite said:
icykai said:

GC+GBA will most likely be done by the end of this year(103.5M). The only challenge now is N64+GB/GBC(151.62M). Wii+DS is unrealistic.

Since when are we counting GB/GBC as the same generation?

Since Nintendo decided to do so



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Medisti said:

I've been reading people talking about the upcoming cliff for four and a half years now. By the time it happens, after the next Nintendo console launches, they'll go "I told you so!" as if that drop doesn't happen to nearly every last-gen console once its replacement is on the market.

Well it should sell around 27 million this year, compared to the 28 million from last year, so I guess people will see a cliff here



Leynos said:

Now when will it outsell the Wii and Gamecube combined

No, Wii and DS.



Ei Kiinasti.

Eikä Japanisti.

Vaan pannaan jalalla koreasti.

 

Nintendo games sell only on Nintendo system.

JRPGfan said:
HoangNhatAnh said:

And PS3 + PSP >>> PS4 + vita too, Sony failed!

Yep, sony looked at vita sales and said "no more handhelds".
Nintendo looked at console sales, and said "no more home consoles".
Their hybrid solution is pretty good though (effectively its a handheld).

Switch beat Wii U + 3ds, both software and hardware.

Can ps5 beat ps4 + vita, both software and hardware?

bdbdbd said:
Leynos said:

Now when will it outsell the Wii and Gamecube combined

No, Wii and DS.

Wonder when a playstation home console will outsell PS3 and PSP combined.



HoangNhatAnh said:

bdbdbd said:

No, Wii and DS.

Wonder when a playstation home console will outsell PS3 and PSP combined.

I doubt we will see it happening anytime soon.



Ei Kiinasti.

Eikä Japanisti.

Vaan pannaan jalalla koreasti.

 

Nintendo games sell only on Nintendo system.

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yo33331 said:

Wii + DS is too much. I bet there is at least some 30% of this number having both.
So it have to be more like the number 180-200M which is about ~30% lower than the total number of both.
But yes, still I see it far from that too. It will finish closer to the 90M mark (Wii U + 3DS) than the 180-200M mark.
I give it no more than 130M lifetime. Although I am not excluding the possibilities of bigger (than my expectations) cliff coming and finishing around 120M (pessimistic) or in the optimistic scenario doing a little better sales than my realistic prediction (130M) and finishing in around ~140M mark.

So just to clarify, I don't necessary believe it will do 140 or 120M I am just not excluding them as possibilities. If I have to give percentage of my believes for the numbers I give 70% for around ~130M lifetime, and 15% for each of the ~120M and ~140M bars.

The Switch will be at 120m before or at November 2022, so unless it magically stops selling completely at that time, there's absolutely no way it sells only 120m. Hopefully that will help you to see the folly of your 130m prediction. There's practically no way it "only"  sells 10m from then until final LTD. Especially since it's highly likely that at that time, there will be no successor announced still. A more logical prediction would be 140-145m total LTD, as there's no particular reason to expect it to approach ps2/ds sales unless it has an especially long lifespan. I expect it to be replaced by holiday 2024 at the latest. Any later and perhaps it can approach ps2/ds numbers.



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The_Liquid_Laser said:

If it outsells PS4 + Vita, then does that make Switch a success or does that make PS4 a failure?

If Nintendo plays their cards right, (long lifespan for Switch, with strong support until its replacement) it should outsell PS4 + Vita combined comfortably.

That will simply make Switch an even bigger success than PS4.



HoangNhatAnh said:
JRPGfan said:

Yep, sony looked at vita sales and said "no more handhelds".
Nintendo looked at console sales, and said "no more home consoles".
Their hybrid solution is pretty good though (effectively its a handheld).

Switch beat Wii U + 3ds, both software and hardware.

Can ps5 beat ps4 + vita, both software and hardware?

bdbdbd said:

No, Wii and DS.

Wonder when a playstation home console will outsell PS3 and PSP combined.

Too early to tell, but most likely not. 
135-140m is a hard thing to do (estimated ~120m PS4s by its end of sales, and ~16m Vitas).

bdbdbd said:
HoangNhatAnh said:

Wonder when a playstation home console will outsell PS3 and PSP combined.

I doubt we will see it happening anytime soon.

"wonder when a Nintendo hybrid console, will outsell Wii + NDS combined."

^-^

Basically same question, both best selling consoles + handhelds of a gen together.

The question is why even bother raseing such bait worthy questions? they dont feel like "legit" ones, just ones to trigger people.



Everyone keeps on mentioning (rightfully) that Switch wont top Wii + DS hardware sales, however, what are the odds it passes the combined profit of those 2 systems? Or at the very least, combined software sales?



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brute said:

Everyone keeps on mentioning (rightfully) that Switch wont top Wii + DS hardware sales, however, what are the odds it passes the combined profit of those 2 systems? Or at the very least, combined software sales?

No Idea about the profit, but that seems to be the "most likely" one.^^

Combined Software sales also is kind of impossible. According to Nintendo data together Wii and NDS sold roughly 1.87 billion games. (921.85 Milion Wii-Games and 948.74 Million NDS-Games)

Switch currently (June 30th 2021) is at 632 million, thats basically one-third. So Switch needs like 1.25 billion games sold more than right now life to date.

(I guess it only refers to games on cartridges, but I am not very sure. Please feel free to correct me for the case I am wrong.)

I dont think that is possible. Switch easily will surpass 1 billion and probably also 1.2 billion, but 1.87 billion is massive.