Yep.

Since sales actually went up this week, I think things are looking decent so far.

I always buy my new games and consoles from brick and mortar stores, the only exception being when a few games came out during lockdown in the last 1 months. Even most brick and mortar stores seem completely sold out of 9th gen consoles though. I hope with Switch 2 I'll be able to put my name down for a preorder at my local EB Games or JB Hifi and get one that way without having to wait too long, I absolutely refuse to pay a scalper.

When was the last time that happened, like 2009 or something?

2020 might catch-up by the end of the Quarter but this year we have OLED, Pokemon, Mario Party, SMT V and a bunch of other games likely to launch in the fall.
Last year it was basically Momotaro, Age of Calamity, Pikmin, as major titles and there weren't that many mid-tier titles either. 

End of the year, I expect Switch sales to be closer to 6.5 million

I'll throw in a prediction

The switch will be 6 million by the end of the year
I think the xbox series family and ps5 will push it down a but this Christmas period

Wario Ware should also be big in Japan, since previous titles on the DS and Wii sold alot, one even sold over 1.2mil copies. I expect Wario Ware to sell over 500k.

Yeah this year definitely has a stronger final quarter than 2020, but it has to weather the storm for another 2 and a half months or so to get to the first of its holiday pillars. There's also the risk that if the OLED, like the Lite, proves to be less popular than the base model, manufacturing capacity being spent on it rather than the base will lead to less sell through.

While I certainly hope for 2021 to beat 2020 both in Japan and globally, I feel its gonna be a close one.

Many people keep saying people might be holding off for the OLED. But honestly, is there really a big difference to warrent the extra $100? I saw the video and it looked just like a normal switch, only with a stand and a little bit better display.

But for an extra $100?

Unless Japan is priced differently it's $50 more, not $100.

And it's more than a better screen and stand, it also has a wired LAN port, improved audio, and more internal storage.

Switch will probably sell similar to last year. The OLED is a good stopgap to stop a decline from happening. Since the improvements are mainly for the handheld version, it seems to be a bigger focus for Asian markets over western. Sales are probably still doing quite well in other countries, but Nintendo must have foreseen a decline in Asian countries without the new model.

You forgot to mention Golf Story