Xbox Series X up this week, while Series S had quite a drop.
Still good numbers. Around 55k left for it to outsell the Xbox One.
| RolStoppable said: Looks like I can skip the comparison table this week because it's already posted above. Instead I'll get right to the news of the new Switch OLED model and its impact. 2020's holiday quarter was weak in comparison to the preceding three quarters which comfortably beat 2019. 2020's holiday quarter was roughly the same as 2019's, so basically flat year over year. While 2021's lead over 2020 is bound to shrink in the current quarter due to a bunch of 100k+ weeks in the comparable timeframe of 2020, the holiday quarter presents a good opportunity to not only swing momentum back in 2021's favor, but also to greatly outdo 2020 in the end. While 2021's holiday lineup is not spectacular, it still handily beats 2020's. Both Mario Party and Pokémon won't have problems to cross 1m units and when you combine this with availability of the new OLED model for almost the entire quarter, it's not a real contest anymore. Although the announcement of the OLED model happened three months before its launch, so enough gamers may hold off until October for 2021's YTD to fall behind 2020's at some point. Either way, 2021 should have the win in the bag for good now. |
959k is needed to match 2020 W40 (a week before OLED). That’s under 74k a week with Obon week and a strong july. 2021 hasn’t gone under 70k yet on top of it.
Having that 360k+ lead will help you offset any big weeks. I think NSW will easily do a million this quarter, last quarter was over 1250k. Strong July and Obon week coming.
| siebensus4 said: I don't see the Switch selling more than 100k in the next couple of weeks, so I guess it will lose its lead over 2020 until the OLED model launches. |
It won’t lose its lead. Read above
Top 20 2020 Q3:
NSW - 14
PS4 - 6
TOTAL: 3.996.281
NSW TOTAL: 3.017.997 (75.5%)
PS4 TOTAL: 978.284 (24.5%)
Last year in Q3 it was mostly New Horizon & Ring Fit stock maintaining momentum for the Switch in the summer. The major titles launched on the Switch in the Quarter were 3D All-Stars, The Origami King, eBaseball as the only titles that broke 200K sales, from a perspective of smaller titles there was definitely no much coming out as Crystal Chronicles was the only other new game to surpass 50K sales.
On the PS4, Ghost of Tsushima accounted for over 40% of the Software sales but there were plenty of mid-range titles from eBaseball, Extreme Vs. MaxiBoost, Hajimari no Kiseki, Alicization Lycoris.
This year everything is pointing towards Baseball Spirits, Monster Hunter Stories 2, Yu-Gi-Oh as the games that should surpass 300K, in the 100K to 300K range we have Skyward Sword, Shin-kun, Ace Attorney Chronicles, Lost Judgement & Tales of Arise,
Overall Konami is set to have a very strong summer but Capcom aren't looking to shabby with their line-up either. Q3 of 2020 is comparable to 2021 for Nintendo overall, simply because of New Horizon & Ring Fit adding so much sales between them. Overall I can see software ending up over 3 million on the Switch this quarter simply by virtual of having 18/20 of the Top 20 games.
It's PS ecosystem that will continue it's major decline of software as it's unlikely that they can surpass 300K across Tales of Arise & Lost Judgement, considering those games come out at the end of the Quarter and I doubt the initial shipment retailers will order will be sizable after struggling to sell off Village which is the highest profile game on the ecosystem this year(only Demon Slayer has a chance to outsell it PS4/PS5 combined).
HARDWARE TOTAL: 1.325.232
NSW HARDWARE: 1.287.203 (97.1%)
PS4 HARDWARE: 38.029 (2.9%)
In terms of hardware last year Switch managed an average of 99K sales per week during the summer, we need to see if OLED announcement has any impact on hardware sales. Still there is a good chance of matching 2020 this Quarter or being only slightly down, which would still put 2021 well ahead of 2020.
PS4 basically was on-life support last year so obviously in terms of market share YoY, we will see growth - software wise it's where we will see PlayStation's problem continue in 2021.
Last edited by noshten - on 08 July 2021
Samurai Warriors 5 already showing better legs on Switch than PS4. Also it's weird seeing an Xbox system this high in Japan, don't remember this happening since the mid 7th gen.
Top 30: https://nintendoeverything.com/famitsu-software-sales-6-28-21-7-4-21-top-30/
1. [NSW] Mario Golf: Super Rush – 31,685 / 112,115
2. [NSW] Game Builder Garage – 17,640 / 143,648
3. [NSW] Ring Fit Adventure – 14,422 / 2,669,091
4. [NSW] Minecraft – 13,211 / 2,032,643
5. [NSW] Samurai Warriors 5 – 11,555 / 50,246
6. [PS4] Samurai Warriors 5 – 10,292 / 65,697
7. [NSW] Mario Kart 8 Deluxe – 10,211 / 3,898,694
8. [NSW] Miitopia – 9,593 / 179,233
9. [NSW] Momotaro Dentetsu: Showa, Heisei, Reiwa mo Teiban! – 9,458 / 2,251,898
10. [NSW] Super Mario 3D World + Bowser’s Fury – 7,954 / 798,431
11. [NSW] Super Smash Bros. Ultimate – 7,582 / 4,326,142
12. [NSW] Monster Hunter Rise – 7,298 / 2,279,942
13. [NSW] Animal Crossing: New Horizons – 6,167 / 6,813,456
14. [PS4] Scarlet Nexus – 5,805 / 25,965
15. [NSW] Super Mario Party – 5,599 / 1,924,087
16. [NSW] Clubhouse Games: 51 Worldwide Classics – 4,723 / 738,960
17. [NSW] Moshikashite? Obake no Shatekiya – 4,486 / NEW
18. [NSW] New Pokemon Snap – 4,367 / 253,358
19. [NSW] Splatoon 2 – 4,162 / 3,892,616
20. [NSW] Pokemon Sword/Shield – 4,123 / 4,075,472
21. [NSW] Zelda: Breath of the Wild – 2,991 / 1,832,380
22. [NSW] Fitness Boxing 2: Rhythm & Exercise – 2,635 / 116,342
23. [NSW] Summer Pockets Reflection Blue – 2,351 / NEW
24. [PS4] Resident Evil Village – 2,265 / 191,983
25. [NSW] Dragon Quest XI S (New Price Version) – 2,098 / 111,131
26. [PS5] Scarlet Nexus – 1,777 / 12,785
27. [NSW] Super Mario Odyssey – 1,757 / 2,245,111
28. [NSW] The Caligula Effect 2 – 1,738 / 11,981
29. [NSW] Super Mario Maker 2 – 1,676 / 1,105,741
30. [NSW] Super Mario 3D All-Stars – 1,642 / 597,402
NS - 26
PS4 - 3
PS5 - 1
Heavy drops for Scarlet Nexus PS5 and Caligula 2.
RE Village PS4 can reach 200k before dropping out of the top 30.
Xbox is on fire.
Good to see Scarlet Nexus hit 80-100% retail sellthrough on Famitsu for the PS4 ver. Looks like it sold about what was expected of it.
| curl-6 said: Samurai Warriors 5 already showing better legs on Switch than PS4. Also it's weird seeing an Xbox system this high in Japan, don't remember this happening since the mid 7th gen. |
That's because it hasn't happened since 7th gen. These past 4 weeks have each been higher than any week achieved by the XBox One (aside from launch week). However it's not quite mid-7th gen level yet. X360 had numerous weeks over 10K in Japan over the life of the console.
Switch: SW-3707-5131-3911
XBox: Kenjabish
HARDWARE Q1-Q3 TOTAL 2020: 4.427.926
NSW Q1-Q3 TOTAL 2020: 3.954.085 (89.3%)
PS4 Q1-Q3 TOTAL 2020: 473.841 (10.7%)
HARDWARE TOTAL 2021: 3.705.738
NSW TOTAL 2021: 3.085.951 (83.3%)
PS5 TOTAL 2021: 619.787 (16.7%)
In terms of hardware Switch doesn't need that much to still be ahead of 2020, with 73K per week average being enough to stay ahead with the OLED launch to follow shortly. More likely I can see the Switch actually ending up at around 4.17 million by the end of Q3 with an average per week of around 90K, I don't personally think OLED will impact demand all that much until very late in September.
Last year PS4 basically didn't get any stock during Q3, so its likely that we see PS5 at over 800K by the end of the Quarter, which would be pretty decent result in terms of hardware if we had the software sales to match it. But as discussed the software sales don't actually match the current user base of the PS5 and are actually lower than X360 achieved during the same time, there is also basically no games on the PS5 that are likely to surpass 100K this quarter either. While the PS4 audience is declining very quickly.
Still in terms of hardware we would see Switch & PS5 surpass 5 million units by Q3 with OLED, Pokemon Remakes and December there to ensure 2021 is the peak year.
Famitsu 2020 Q1-Q3 Top 30:
NSW - 20
PS4 - 10
TOTAL: 15.011.204
TOTAL NSW: 12.156.044 (81%)
TOTAL PS4: 2.855.160 (19%)
Famitsu 2021 Top 30:
NSW - 28
PS4 - 2
TOTAL: 9.409.734
NSW TOTAL: 9.059.486 (96.3%)
PS4 TOTAL: 350.248 (3.7%)
The big games Baseball Spirits, Monster Hunter Stories 2, Yu-Gi-Oh this quarter can potentially add over 1.2 million software; while we also have a few mid-range titles Skyward Sword, Shin-kun, Ace Attorney Chronicles, DBZ: Kakarot, Lost Judgement & Tales of Arise.
Still software will continue to be down YoY in the Top 30 mainly due to New Horizon being such a juggernaut, if we remove it from last year's total 2021 software is already ahead, but those 5.7 million sales will be near impossible to overcome this Quarter. However in Q3 we do have a one multi-million selling title, and one million selling title - which should ensure that Software does end up YoY.
From a PlayStation perspective, we might see 3 games that end up in the Top 30 at the end of the Quarter - Village, Nier Replicant & Tales of Arise; Lost Judgement launches at the very last week of the Quarter and it's launch is likely not going to allow it's PS4 SKU to chart. Also no guarantees that Tales of Arise actually makes it since it could be that the PS4 SKU only manages 100K in September and 50K on the PS5, which I don't think will be enough.
In terms of the Top 5, Monster Hunter Rise's legs aren't as strong as I thought, I think we need to see an update for Obon to reignite demand in the title in order to surpass 2.5 million physical by the end the Quarter. While Momotaro will likely end up pretty close to 1.5 million, Bowser's Fury probably close to 1 million, Ring Fit around 800K, MK8D or Yu-Gi-Oh are for me the most likely games to come into the 5th Spot, Yu-Gi-Oh's demo reception should give us a better idea of what to expect but it could definitely be a potential million seller on the Switch if WoM is good. So around 6.4 million across those game.
Within the Top 10 it doesn't seem that there would be a game below 400K, so an additional 2 million across those at minimum. Most likely games to be competing are New Horizon, Smash, Minecraft, Monster Hunter Stories 2 & Baseball Spirits
While on average the remaining 20 games will end up around 200K, so an additional 4 million.
So at minimum by the end of Q3 we would surpass 12 million sales, 3 million shy of last year - I'm expecting the biggest boosts at Obon for Momotaro, Ring Fit, Rise
Sony are in a tough spot at the moment where PS5 seems to still be getting off the ground software wise but PS4 is dying, resulting in a lull. Doesn't help that the Switch seems to compete more directly with them in Japan compared to globally, (at least that's the impression I get) and is steamrolling them.
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